The Jameson Raid succeeds

Though painted today as a dastardly coup attempt, aimed at toppling a legitimate government, had the Jameson Raid succeeded it would surely have been remembered very differently. During his trail following the failed Raid, Jameson himself said:

'I know perfectly well that as I have not succeeded, the natural thing has happened; but I also know that if I had succeeded, I should have been forgiven'.

In this, he was undoubtedly correct: had the Raiders managed to make it through to Johannesburg (which they very nearly did) it is not unreasonable to suggest that Jameson's magnetic personality would have galvanised the English-speaking community of that town - which was already in open insurrection. There was also a sizable minority of Afrikaners who wanted rid of Kruger's corrupt kleptocracy, and who would have welcomed the sort of free and fair elections which the Raiders were advocating.

So assuming the Raid had succeeded, Kruger had fled the country (with as much money as he could manage) and elections held shortly thereafter, what difference would it have made? Given that the disenfranchised English-speakers were considered by most to represent a majority of the white community in the Transvaal, it is not unreasonable to say that a more 'English' / pro-British government would have been elected and that union with the British colonies of Southern Africa would have been on the cards.

Perhaps the British Government would have insisted on the extension of the 'Cape Qualified Franchise' (or a form thereof) to the Transvaal, thereby starting the process of extending the vote to the non-white community - something utterly unheard of under Kruger's rule.

Would the more extreme Boers have put up with this? in reality, most did in the wake of the Boer War so it is not unreasonable to suggest that many would have made the best of it. Others might have in-spanned their wagons and trekked off into Portuguese or German territory, or headed south to the OFS.

Either way, it would seem fair to propose that had the Jameson Raid succeeded - and thus Kruger been toppled and a more inclusive form of democracy introduced to the Transvaal in the late 1890s - there would have been no Second Boer War. And with no Boer War, there would have been no reason for the British government to turn a conveniently Nelsonic Eye to the Afrikaner hard-liners refusal to entertain the rights of non-whites at the peace talks... meaning that numbers of non-whites would have enjoyed the franchise in the British-dominated Transvaal (just as they did in the Cape Colony) and making it unlikely that Apartheid could ever have come to pass.
 
Though painted today as a dastardly coup attempt, aimed at toppling a legitimate government, had the Jameson Raid succeeded it would surely have been remembered very differently. During his trail following the failed Raid, Jameson himself said:

'I know perfectly well that as I have not succeeded, the natural thing has happened; but I also know that if I had succeeded, I should have been forgiven'.

In this, he was undoubtedly correct: had the Raiders managed to make it through to Johannesburg (which they very nearly did) it is not unreasonable to suggest that Jameson's magnetic personality would have galvanised the English-speaking community of that town - which was already in open insurrection. There was also a sizable minority of Afrikaners who wanted rid of Kruger's corrupt kleptocracy, and who would have welcomed the sort of free and fair elections which the Raiders were advocating.

So assuming the Raid had succeeded, Kruger had fled the country (with as much money as he could manage) and elections held shortly thereafter, what difference would it have made? Given that the disenfranchised English-speakers were considered by most to represent a majority of the white community in the Transvaal, it is not unreasonable to say that a more 'English' / pro-British government would have been elected and that union with the British colonies of Southern Africa would have been on the cards.

Perhaps the British Government would have insisted on the extension of the 'Cape Qualified Franchise' (or a form thereof) to the Transvaal, thereby starting the process of extending the vote to the non-white community - something utterly unheard of under Kruger's rule.

Would the more extreme Boers have put up with this? in reality, most did in the wake of the Boer War so it is not unreasonable to suggest that many would have made the best of it. Others might have in-spanned their wagons and trekked off into Portuguese or German territory, or headed south to the OFS.

Either way, it would seem fair to propose that had the Jameson Raid succeeded - and thus Kruger been toppled and a more inclusive form of democracy introduced to the Transvaal in the late 1890s - there would have been no Second Boer War. And with no Boer War, there would have been no reason for the British government to turn a conveniently Nelsonic Eye to the Afrikaner hard-liners refusal to entertain the rights of non-whites at the peace talks... meaning that numbers of non-whites would have enjoyed the franchise in the British-dominated Transvaal (just as they did in the Cape Colony) and making it unlikely that Apartheid could ever have come to pass.

You make some interesting points, but let's remember that in Natal voting restrictions were as bad as in the Transvaal re: non-whites, and the English-speaking population in Natal was the highest of the four colonies in SA. Just because Jameson is successful it doesn't necessarily follow that this will lead to greater voting rights for non-whites in the Transvaal.
 
Natal (and Rhodesia) was certainly a long, long way behind the Cape, though there were (or had been until recently) non-white voters in Natal (not many though!) which one cannot say for Kruger's Transvaal - a nation which discriminated not just against non-whites in this respect, but also against English-speakers, Jews and Catholics, and where blacks were not even allowed to walk on the pavements. It is also noteworthy that when the Boers captured at Elandslaagte were marched into Ladysmith, blacks taunted and jeered at them, demanding to see their passes.
 
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Natal (and Rhodesia) was certainly a long, long way behind the Cape, though there were (or had been until recently) non-white voters in Natal (not many though!) which one cannot say for Kruger's Transvaal - a nation which discriminated not just against non-whites in this respect, but also against English-speakers, Jews and Catholics, and where blacks were not even allowed to walk on the pavements. It is also noteworthy that when the Boers captured at Elandslaagte were marched into Ladysmith, blacks taunted and jeered at them, demanding to see their passes.

Haven't heard about discrimination against Catholics and Jews being common on the ZAR - do you have a source?

Ditto with blacks not bring allowed to walk on pavements, I can believe it but I would like to see a source.

The issue around passes is also surprising, as I would be very surprised if blacks in Natal were allowed to walk around without passes.
 
“The Transvaal was in no way a democracy. No Catholic or Jew was allowed to vote or hold office. Every Boer was compelled to own a rifle, no non-Boer was allowed to. Johannesburg, with 50,000 mainly Uitlander inhabitants, was not even allowed an unelected municipal council. English was banned in all official proceedings. Judges were appointed by Kruger, who controlled all the government monopolies from jam to dynamite. By far the largest proportion of the tax burden was carried by the Uitlanders, yet no open-air public meetings were permitted. Newspapers could be closed down arbitrarily without any reason given. Above all, full citizenship was almost impossible to gain for non-Boers. Pretoria ran a tight, tough, quasi-police state.” Roberts, Salisbury, p.717

"when a deputation of Johannesburg-based Jews, headed by a Dr Hertz, met Kruger to plead for educational and religious freedoms. Kruger dismissed them out of hand, informing the delegation that, while the Jews were the descendants of Ishmael, the Boers were the direct descendants of Isaac and that therefore it would be against the scriptures for both ‘tribes’ to live together in harmony" Biggar, The Boer War: Its Causes and its Interest to Canadians, p.28

1899 - The Regulations for Towns in the South African Republic (Transvaal) stated that persons of colour were prohibited from walking on the side-walks (pavements) or stoeps serving as a side-walk on the streets of its towns - sorry, I do not have the full text to post here. This is interesting, though:
http://www.gov.za/sites/www.gov.za/files/Act 42 of 1970.pdf

And is confirmed by the memoirs of a European visitor:
"The standing of the Kaffir in the Transvaal is worth notice. While in the English colony they enjoy equal rights with white men, and even have a vote, in the Transvaal their standing is very different. The Kaffir must not walk on the pavement, he must salute every white man, and must not leave his house after 9 PM" Count Sternberg, My Experiences of the Boer War, p.78
 
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There was some discrimination, but a small number of Jews fought on the Boer side in the Anglo-Boer wars and there was also some amount of inter-marriage (the Boerejode). As far as I can tell freedom of religion was allowed in the ZAR but Catholics and Jews were prevented from holding certain positions.

And with regard to how black people were treated, as I said before, I doubt the position of black people in Natal in particular was much better.
 
That would strike me as discrimination indeed, as do the quotes I provided.
Slavery was also widely practiced in the ZAR, using the euphemism of 'apprenticeships'. General Joubert was known as particularly good supplier of 'apprentices'.

"The Joubert Papers contain many letters written on the subject, with this one sent to his wife being typical: “Please ask the General to let me have a little Malaboch kaffir, as of course there are some whose father and mother have been killed. I don’t mind if it’s a boy or a girl. I want one about seven years old, or any one that the General will give me.” Gordon, The Growth in Boer Opposition to Kruger, 1890-1895, p.8

I would be very interested to see your sources which show that the position of blacks in Natal was as bad.

On the contrary, it is interesting to see the response of Africans to the republican invasion of Natal. In the days just prior to the Boer War, with Kruger's Commandos poised on the border, a unit of Native Scouts was to be raised to help defend the Colony and

'the officer put in charge of recruiting the new unit, Robert Samuelson of the Natal Carbineers, immediately rode out to meet Chief Khumalo, a man of over 100 years old who lived about twenty miles to the north of Ladysmith. The old chief agreed to help, and addressed his tribesmen the following day:
'My children this is the day of days; an impudent foe, the Boers, are preparing to fight against Her Majesty the Queen, our sovereign and Mother, who has for so many years spread her wings over us to protect us, and who is minded to continue spreading her wings like an Angel over us till they touch the earth; That Queen requires your services, go and serve her till death’.
His people cheered and clamoured to join the scouts; indeed, there were not enough saddles to go round and some had to ride bareback. Samuelson’s Natal Native Scouts started patrolling the frontier immediately, and some others, who were fluent in Sotho and Dutch, even slipped across the frontier to gather intelligence.'
Rethman, Friends and Enemies, p.70

A strange reaction if he felt his people were so badly treated?

Compare Khumalo's reaction to that of the Chiefs of the Transvaal when they were told that (after the First Boer War), they would no longer be living under British rule:

'It fell to the missionary John Moffat to try to explain to the African chiefs in the Transvaal that they would no longer enjoy British protection or equality before the law. On hearing the news, Moffat described how “for the most part there was the silence of despair. One gentle old man, Mokhatle, a man of great influence, used the language of resignation, ‘When I was a child, the Matabele came, they swept over us like the wind and we bowed before them like the long white grass on the plains. They left us and we stood upright again. The Boers came and we bowed ourselves under them in like manner. The British came and we rose upright, our hearts lived within us and we said: Now we are the children of the Great Lady. And now that is past and we must lie flat again under the wind—who knows what are the ways of God?’” Mason, The Birth of a Dilemma, p.110

Additionally, there is a letter (which was written before the Boer War) in the papers of J.X. Merriman which placed the different states of Southern Africa in order of merit on their native policy, with Natal the best, then Rhodesia, the Orange Free State a good step lower down and then the Cape (because of the angling for the Dutch vote), and the Transvaal last. John Xavier Merriman Memoirs, 1899-1905, p.397
 
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I don't think there is any dispute that black people weren't exactly treated very well in the ZAR. I disagree with the assertion that a successful Jameson Raid would have seen life suddenly becoming marvellous for black people in the area.

Jameson was Cecil Rhodes's right-hand man, and Rhodes's views on black people were even slightly backwards for the time, and many of his policies on the Kimberley diamond mines (needing passes for workers etc.) laid much of the foundation for discriminatory laws later on, and apartheid itself.
 
Please can you show where I have stated that life would 'suddenly become marvellous for black people in the area'? I see no reason to misquote me to try and make your point.

The copious quotes and references I have provided support the assertion that South African blacks were relatively better off under Imperial rule than under Kruger's rule. To say that the life enjoyed by non-whites under British rule (or, specifically, Natal: I think you concede that they were much better off in the Cape Colony than in the Transvaal) was not perfect by today's standards, so therefore they were no better off than those under Kruger's rule doesn't strike me as a convincing argument.

Whether or not a form of the Cape Qualified Franchise would have been instituted in the Transvaal following a return to British rule is something we shall never know - but the possibility cannot be dismissed out of hand, and, had it been, surely that would have been a good thing.

An interesting quote:
‘My motto is “Equal rights for every civilised man south of the Zambesi”. What is a civilised man? A man, whether white or black, who has sufficient education to write his name, has some property or works, in fact is not a loafer’
Cecil John Rhodes
 
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I don't think there is any dispute that black people weren't exactly treated very well in the ZAR. I disagree with the assertion that a successful Jameson Raid would have seen life suddenly becoming marvellous for black people in the area.

Jameson was Cecil Rhodes's right-hand man, and Rhodes's views on black people were even slightly backwards for the time, and many of his policies on the Kimberley diamond mines (needing passes for workers etc.) laid much of the foundation for discriminatory laws later on, and apartheid itself.


"Suddenly becoming marvellous" is obviously untrue, but given the track record of the Boers, both before and after the war, I think it quite likely that life for the black people of Transvaal would have improved. As for Cecil Rhodes, he was pretty racist, but he wasn't the cartoonish villain he's sometimes portrayed as.
 
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