The Italians win at Adowa

LordKalvert

Banned
The Italian defeat at Adowa ibrings to an end her ambitions in Africa until the Libyan campaign. It also guarantees the independence of Ethiopia and brings the French to hatch their Fashoda expedition. It also brings down the government of Crispi and indirectly the reconciliation of Italy and France

So as it says on the tin-

Menelik decides a day earlier that he has to withdraw from Adowa as his forces have devoured the crops and can't live off the land anymore. The Italians don't launch their desperate attack but get reinforcements
 
The Italian defeat at Adowa ibrings to an end her ambitions in Africa until the Libyan campaign. It also guarantees the independence of Ethiopia and brings the French to hatch their Fashoda expedition. It also brings down the government of Crispi and indirectly the reconciliation of Italy and France

So as it says on the tin-

Menelik decides a day earlier that he has to withdraw from Adowa as his forces have devoured the crops and can't live off the land anymore. The Italians don't launch their desperate attack but get reinforcements

Maybe they are going for Sudan, participating in the coalition against the Mahdist ? They would be the third European power setting foot on Sudan soil. They might get in trouble with France and Britain. Another possibility is, that because of their victory they go for Lybia earlier.
 
Well the biggest initial change is that Crispi (a Duce ante-litteram) will remain in power sometime more...not that much he is old, health is not really good and there is a lot of skeleton in the closet that wait only to be discovered as the man was not very like by many politicians or even by the King.
Relations with France while the man is in charge will remain awful, and Italy will remain a solid member of the Triple Alliance.
Internally a succesfull ethiopian campaign mean that a presidente del consiglio, will have more leeway to pursuit a personal foreign policy (the Adowa precedent greatly weakened this notion creating problem during the intervention in Crete and CHina).

Said that the war was both costly and the general population was not really in favor of it so things will be closed quickly with some enlargement of Eritrea and Abyssinia being a somewhat protectorate of Italy.
Here start the little problem, at the moment italian troops are stationed at Cassala in Sudan, having conquered the city from the Mahdist, after Adwua in OTL the italian goverment decided to retreat from there to secure Eritrea.
In case of victory instead we will see the italian garrison growing, the problem is that the city it's out of the zone assigned to Italy but the British will return in Sudan only in 97, so an italian goverment can decide to not vacate the place.

No humiliation in Ethiopia also mean that Giolitti will feel less pressured to obtain a great military victory in Libya and accepting a deal that keep the formal possession of the place in the hand of the Ottoman but let the Italian de facto rule it, will be palatable.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
One thing I'm curious about though- do the British still send Ktchener to the Sudan. Originally they do it as a means of relieving pressure on the Italians. Rudini requests it, then hesitates and then asks for it again. The British seem reluctant to do it. They might hold off

If they do wait, the Boer War will intervene and the British might not have much of a stomach to fight both at the same time
 
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