As you know, Bob, the 1490s through early 1530s saw Italy wracked by the Italian Wars, pitting France against the Hapsburgs for control of the peninsula.
Now, by 1521 things between the Papacy (which spent most of the wars trying to maintain a balance of power in the penninsula) was in the Imperial camp, because the French controlled Milan and Genoa. In early 1521, the Papacy had thorwn its hand in with teh French, following Machiavelli's advice that the French were less powerful than the Empire. But when Francis and Charles went to war in 1521, the Pope threw his support behind charles, on the basis that Imperial support was needed to crush Luther.
In response, Francis declared that no ecclesiastical moneys would be sent to Rome, and Francis warned that "I will enter Rome and impose laws on the Pope."
Then on November 19, 1521, Milan fell, and a few days later Leo X died while hunting.
(An aside: Leo X's hunting needs to be described. Because the pope was fat and half-blind, he was carried to a spot in a litter, often the head of a rvine. Minions then drove stag and boars down the hill, and the pope watched as they were butchered at his feet. One popular entertainment of his was to roll barrels of stuffed with pigs down a hill, where hungry peasants fought with axes to secure the meat.)
Then Leo X died, and the struggle for the tiara ensue.d Giulio de ' Medici rushed back to Rome, hopeful that he would succeed his cousin. Giulio had handled Vatican foreign policy, and had proven himself as an able military commander. Francis I warned that "if another Meidci, who is the cause of all the war [is elected], neither he nor any man in hi s kingdom would obey the Church of Rome."
As an electioneering ploy, Medici made his bloc of cardinals throw their votes behind Adrian of Utrecht, the Emperor's viceroy and inquisitor-general. With an eye towards future ballots, (and as an effort to get rid of some of the other candidates by breaking up rival blocs), the other competitors also tossed their votes behind Adrian. And oops, he was elected.
I? Adrian was an odd duck. He was, by preference, a Flemish scholar, and unlike Leo, Giulio, or Leo, recognized the flaws of the church. But he was a mess of a Pope, arriving as the city broke out in plague. He spoke no Italian, conducted all business in Latin, ordered "pagan" classical sculpture removed, and lived in a small house in the Vatican, attended by four people instead of the hundreds who served Leo X. (Including an old Flemish woman who cooked his meals.)
Now, in due course in OTL France's bluster came to nought, and he allied with the Pope again. Adrian died, to be replaced by a Medici, who was, to Charles V, a "poltroon of a Pope" who, in reaction to the Franco-Papal alliance, warned that "Perhaps someday Martin Luther will become a man of worth." Charles was also annoyed at the Church's refusal to call for a Council, and its firm devotion to ecclesiastical supremacy at the expense of reforms.
And then the Imperial army sacked the city of Rome and he imprisoned the Pope. Oops.
This all suggests, at least to me, that focusing on the "unlikelihood" of the circumstances of Henry VIII's is a bit of a red herring. There were enough strains between almost all of the powers and the Papacy that I can see things leading to a breaking point.
(And an Imperial Church just sounds awesome).
Now, by 1521 things between the Papacy (which spent most of the wars trying to maintain a balance of power in the penninsula) was in the Imperial camp, because the French controlled Milan and Genoa. In early 1521, the Papacy had thorwn its hand in with teh French, following Machiavelli's advice that the French were less powerful than the Empire. But when Francis and Charles went to war in 1521, the Pope threw his support behind charles, on the basis that Imperial support was needed to crush Luther.
In response, Francis declared that no ecclesiastical moneys would be sent to Rome, and Francis warned that "I will enter Rome and impose laws on the Pope."
Then on November 19, 1521, Milan fell, and a few days later Leo X died while hunting.
(An aside: Leo X's hunting needs to be described. Because the pope was fat and half-blind, he was carried to a spot in a litter, often the head of a rvine. Minions then drove stag and boars down the hill, and the pope watched as they were butchered at his feet. One popular entertainment of his was to roll barrels of stuffed with pigs down a hill, where hungry peasants fought with axes to secure the meat.)
Then Leo X died, and the struggle for the tiara ensue.d Giulio de ' Medici rushed back to Rome, hopeful that he would succeed his cousin. Giulio had handled Vatican foreign policy, and had proven himself as an able military commander. Francis I warned that "if another Meidci, who is the cause of all the war [is elected], neither he nor any man in hi s kingdom would obey the Church of Rome."
As an electioneering ploy, Medici made his bloc of cardinals throw their votes behind Adrian of Utrecht, the Emperor's viceroy and inquisitor-general. With an eye towards future ballots, (and as an effort to get rid of some of the other candidates by breaking up rival blocs), the other competitors also tossed their votes behind Adrian. And oops, he was elected.
I? Adrian was an odd duck. He was, by preference, a Flemish scholar, and unlike Leo, Giulio, or Leo, recognized the flaws of the church. But he was a mess of a Pope, arriving as the city broke out in plague. He spoke no Italian, conducted all business in Latin, ordered "pagan" classical sculpture removed, and lived in a small house in the Vatican, attended by four people instead of the hundreds who served Leo X. (Including an old Flemish woman who cooked his meals.)
Now, in due course in OTL France's bluster came to nought, and he allied with the Pope again. Adrian died, to be replaced by a Medici, who was, to Charles V, a "poltroon of a Pope" who, in reaction to the Franco-Papal alliance, warned that "Perhaps someday Martin Luther will become a man of worth." Charles was also annoyed at the Church's refusal to call for a Council, and its firm devotion to ecclesiastical supremacy at the expense of reforms.
And then the Imperial army sacked the city of Rome and he imprisoned the Pope. Oops.
This all suggests, at least to me, that focusing on the "unlikelihood" of the circumstances of Henry VIII's is a bit of a red herring. There were enough strains between almost all of the powers and the Papacy that I can see things leading to a breaking point.
(And an Imperial Church just sounds awesome).
).