Well, Brazil isn't a Hellscape and in some ways better than Nazi Germany and Maoist China.
That's a surprise!
What's the Human Rights situation in Brazil?
When will Fictional Charecters begin to turn up?
I mean, is it really an achievement to be better than Mao or Nazism? They do have Concentration camps just like the Brazilian government had with Arthur Bernades and Vargas, they just don't round up groups in mass but they do have something akin to Gulags in the Amazon.
Brazil is a living contradiction, for instance, they are probably the most progressive nation when it comes to racial legislation and many prominent Integralists are Black activists such as Abadias Nascimento, their foremost monarchist is also a black man. But at the same time they are zealots when it comes to crushing African and African-syncretic religions brought by the Slaves.
You can expect the Fictional Characters to gain more and more prominence in the 1960s as the major differences from the war will have an effect and the people from the 40s will reach an active age.
With a more catholic outlook on culture issues, Brazil is probably looking to have something close to 240M people by 2023 ITTL, if no major war occurs.
What's the Integralists' position on big industrial state companies like Petrobrás, CSN and Eletrobrás?
They aren't primitivists, better in national hands than not. The Integralists are not stupid, in fact many of them were known Brazilian intellectuals (never ask 1960 Brazilian intellectuals who they were supportive of during the Second Republic). The companies made by Monteiro are kept, and so do investments, but they aren't going with the level of industrialization that Brazil historically had under Vargas and Juscelino because of the hyperinflation and deficit that it generated.
I'd say more. Just think that if Germania probably already has over 100 million people by 1960 due to its pro-natality policies, I think Brazil could have something closer to 270 or more, especially if the industrialization and urbanization process is slowed down (which is what seems to be happening, according to this chapter)
Don't underestimate what generations of pro-fertility thought from a worshipped government can make, just from the fact even Hitler had a daughter you can have tens of thousands of fanatical families having children now. That's not even including the SS and their darwinian programs.
Brazil is again a strange country, we have a growth rate below replacement and yet the government keeps promoting contraceptives and surgeries. That certainly won't be happening in a "Catholic State".
The Integralists have tons of bad ideological takes, but being more or less against heavy industrialization as a priority must be their one sincerely foolish idea. What do they think they are going to do to compete against industrial juggernauts like Germany or the US if push comes to shove? Idiots. If Germany falls Brazil would be in a position akin to Yugoslavia after the Cold War, new public enemy number 1.
Maybe Reale, due to being more moderate, or Mourão Filho, due to the need to industrialize for militaristic purposes, will have the hindsight to abandon this ruralist agenda when Plinio dies.
Still, I would worry about Mourão Filho's expansionist designs for Brazil. To my knowledge, this can only mean two places: Uruguay or French Guyana. This first path would be a disaster for the diplomatics alignments in Latin America and couldn't be kept in the long run. The second may work (our neighbours wouldn't be too disturbed by it) if done at the right moment and with the right preparation.
Salgado isn't stupid enough to oppose industry, he just won't be having the same mindset of industrialization at all costs that men like Juscelino or the military regime during the 60s-70s economic miracle.
If Germany falls then the enemy will be China, unless Brazil achieves a comparable level of power (which they certainly are capable of with enough natural resources and connections), it's just natural that the US will go back to fighting the Red enemy as they are natural opposites. But Brazil won't stay far behind in military terms.
The problem of French Guiana is the fact they are from a member state of the Linz Pakt, there are also important bases of the Reich for their U-Boats and missiles in the area. But you might be on to something.