The impact of Christianity on Japan if not for the suppression?

Negligible influence. This idea that Christianity can win converts and have an impact "if only it wasn't persecuted!" is a horrible concept and plain wrong and assumes Christianity is superior.

Christianity was winning converts. While in the very early days some peasants thought they were joining a weird form of Buddhism (Monks, prayer beads, etc). To deny that is to deny reality. Yes, Christianity used violence to gain the upper hand a lot of places historically. But Japan isn't one of them.

But look at the competition they had at the time. Shinto was subordinate to Buddhism, and Buddhism, other than the warrior monks protecting their own domains and the peasants on them, were very subordinate to Daimyo and upper class. Being on the government payroll like they were in the Tokugawa didn't inspire the monks to be inspiring.

This did play a part though in the revival of Shinto in the later years of the Tokugawa (one that didn't end until the power of Amatarasu Okami was unleashed on Hiroshima and Nagasaki) and it's embrace by anti Tokugawa forces that led to the Meiji restoration.

All of this gives me an idea.

What if Christianity manages not to anger the powers that be in the 1600's and survives. Anti Tokugawa forces, particularly in the South, turn to it or partially it or to some weird Shinto/Christian Hybrid (rather like Voudom, only Japanese).

That could be interesting and fun.
 
Tell that to the Philippines. Spanish tercios against swordsmen? I think a military conquest - especially with a loyal, local fifth column is entirely possible. More to the point, having Spanish (and Spanish trained) priests telling congregations/followers to oppose the 'pagan' government or to support Spanish trade concessions, or ....
No, I think Tokugawa had legitimate concerns. I doubt isolation was the right answer, but allowing a Spanish church (which is what it would have amounted to) to take first precedence on the loyalty of Japanese would have been a big problem.

Was the Japanese military of the time really "swordsmen?" I don't know much about the period but didn't they have loads and loads of muskets?

And the Philippines was both less urban, less organized, and not really unified in any meaningful sense. Compared to Japan, they're a pushover.


I could see Christianity having a bigger impact but I think sooner or later the powers that be are going to turn against it and crush it.

What a lot of people overlook is that typically Christianity was spread either by force or because it offered some advantage to those who adopted it. I can see people on the bottom of the totem pole adopting it and some lesser nobility but the major institutions of Japanese society will always see it as a threat and I doubt those institutions would be weakened enough that they could lose. Christianity didn't really "take" in a big way in much of Asia. In those places where it did, there are usually additional factors, like years of colonial rule, at play.

My best bet for a Christian Japan would be some crazy theocratic Taiping rebellion style movement. Or somehow get the whole place conquered by Europe (although that wouldn't be easy either.)
 
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Was the Japanese military of the time really "swordsmen?" I don't know much about the period but didn't they have loads and loads of muskets?

And the Philippines was both less urban, less organized, and not really unified in any meaningful sense. Compared to Japan, they're a pushover.


I could see Christianity having a bigger impact but I think sooner or later the powers that be are going to turn against it and crush it.

What a lot of people overlook is that typically Christianity was spread either by force or because it offered some advantage to those who adopted it. I can see people on the bottom of the totem pole adopting it and some lesser nobility but the major institutions of Japanese society will always see it as a threat and I doubt those institutions would be weakened enough that they could lose. Christianity didn't really "take" in a big way in much of Asia. In those places where it did, there are usually additional factors, like years of colonial rule, at play.

My best bet for a Christian Japan would be some crazy theocratic Taiping rebellion style movement. Or somehow get the whole place conquered by Europe (although that wouldn't be easy either.)

Japanese armies of the time were pretty advanced; I read somewhere that the average Japanese army of the period had a higher percentage of musketeers than the average European army.

As to conversion, you could see daimyos promoting the spread of Christianity in order to promote trade with Europe, since similar things had happened in Europe in previous centuries.
 
Wouldn't that be undercut by European groups who just don't care who they trade with?

Even for people who are willing to trade with anyone, places with lots of missionary activity would probably be more attractive trading partners, due to factors such as the greater availability of intermediaries familiar with both cultures/languages, missionaries' accounts letting them know what to expect, ability to worship in a Christian church and to meet Europeans, etc.
 
Tell that to the Philippines. Spanish tercios against swordsmen?

Hey. We had bronze guns, even here in the backwater of the Majapahit. As for Japan, Tanegashima muskets were famous for a reason.

That said, you're right about the Spanish influence being a worry for a recently established shogunate. Of course, it'd be less of a worry for a more stable ruling clan than the Tokugawa.
 
Japanese armies of the time were pretty advanced; I read somewhere that the average Japanese army of the period had a higher percentage of musketeers than the average European army.
Arghhh! Yes, of course. I was thinking of AFTER Tokugawa had gotten rid of muskets - but, he wouldn't do that if Japan were still open.
Sorry for the inanity.
 
Perhaps a stronger socialist/quasi-socialist/democratic element in Japan? After all, it was the religion of the downtrodden peasants.
 
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