The Hungarian Invasion of Romania, 1993...

MacCaulay

Banned
My wife was watching a show I'm not that interested in, so I pulled a book off the shelf at random: Future Wars: The World's Most Dangerous Flashpoints by Col. Trevor N. Dupuy. (recommended to me by a much esteemed technothriller junkie from this very site who shall remain nameless to keep his peaceful reputation intact)

And the most interesting and inventive scenario in the entire book was one that played off the possibility of ethnic unrest in Romania. Basically, it uses the idea of a pseudo-Milosevic type leader coming to power on a platform that mixes ultra-nationalism with some ethnic surpremacy. And the one group that they believe they're better than are the ethnic Hungarians that live in the Transylvanian part of the country.

Long story short, they start treating the Hungarian minority like crap and the Hungarian government tells them to stop. The Romanians say that what they do in their own country is there own business so they can kindly take a hike, and after things go on too long and reach a certain point of...shall we say...pointed unpleasantness, the Hungarian army mobilizes and launches a 2 corps strong attack across the border into Romania to establish a peace that better suits the interests of it's own ethnic population in that country.

I could go into it more, as Col. Dupuy actually goes through the runup and a projected course for the war, but I thought I'd pitch it like this just to get everyone's gears turning.
 
Romania migh probably count on some kind of help from Slovakians. They also have a significant Hungarian minority so they would have been affraid they would be next on Hungarian hit list. OTOH, had Romania really treated their Hungarians so badly, world's opinion might be on Hungarian side - after all, they were justy trying to stop a genocide, weren't they?
To be honest, I have no idea what military stregth both countries had in 1993 - pretty much all of the equipment would have been Warsaw Pact models and both sides would have uses WP tactics. Transylvania is separated from the rest of Romania by mountains, but its easily accessible from Hungarian side. Assuming Hungarian forces manage to surprise Romanians, we can count on Hungarian forces easily taking Timisoara and Cluj, with Hungarian partisants (from local minority) slowing Romanian reinforcements in the mountains. However, later it would be ugly. Romanians would not back dow, neither would Hungarians. I predict some anti-Romanian ethnic cleansing in Hungarian-occupied territory and similar actions against Hungarians in Romania. Rise of nationalistic feelings in Hungary would make Slovakia back Romania, and the rest of the world... who knows? Anywal, Balkan caouldrn, with addition of former Yugoslavia, back in action with a vengeance.
 
Wow. What a coincidence! Last nite I was reading the very same book. I also just randomly pulled it off the shelf; I haven't looked at it in years.

I didn't read the chapter about Hungary/Rumania, although I have in the past. I'm not qualified to comment on this scenario. I did read the story about another Korean war, in which some officers from a defeated NKPA killed their own leaders [great and dear] and the DPRK ended, and was absorbed into the ROK - which is something I would dearly love to see in OTL.
 
Rise of nationalistic feelings in Hungary would make Slovakia back Romania, and the rest of the world... who knows?
Germany might be inclined to back Hungary, to some degree - there is a noticeable German minority in Romania, after all, and the kind of ultra-nationalist ethnic supremacist regime that is posited here for Romania would be fairly easy suspects for, at the least, not giving those Germans acceptable minority rights.
 
I suppose this wouldn't be strictly related to the topic, but what of Moldova? A very nationalistic Romania would probably be interested in it, and unless I'm mistaken there was a brief period after the Soviet Union's collapse where it looked like Moldova would join Romania.
 
Germany might be inclined to back Hungary, to some degree - there is a noticeable German minority in Romania

not nearly as much as there use to be. most of us T. Saxons were "kicked" out (read: removed/forced to leave) at the end of WW2.
 
I would suspect NATO gets involved relatively soon. But world opinion is mostly going to be for Hungary in this sort of war, unless/until they start doing bad things (to, eg., Transylvanian Romanians). You just don't get much support for Nazi-type people these days (in world opinion, not necessarily on the ground!)
 

Cook

Banned
I would suspect NATO gets involved relatively soon.

Remember how long it took for NATO to get involved in Bosnia and Kosovo?

Back at the time I was expecting that after Milosevic had finished with the Bosnians, Croats, Kosovars, etc, he would turn on the Hungarian minority in the north of Serbia and spark off a Hungarian – Serbian war.
 
Remember how long it took for NATO to get involved in Bosnia and Kosovo?

Back at the time I was expecting that after Milosevic had finished with the Bosnians, Croats, Kosovars, etc, he would turn on the Hungarian minority in the north of Serbia and spark off a Hungarian – Serbian war.

I think this is simpler than those wars. It's pretty clearly one bad guy (Romanian pseudo-Nazis) and one good guy (Hungarians). It's also a fairly purely state-level war; there's less internal conflict going on (just Romanians getting ready to do a little genocide). So it would seem that the case for intervention would be more clear-cut and generally easier to get out. Thus, intervening "relatively" soon (ie., faster than in former Yugoslavia).
 

Cook

Banned
I think it depends extremely heavily on who is in the White House at the time and wether he’s getting investigated for receiving blow jobs in the oval office or not.
Without US leadership I don’t see the Europeans rushing in.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
I think this is simpler than those wars. It's pretty clearly one bad guy (Romanian pseudo-Nazis) and one good guy (Hungarians). It's also a fairly purely state-level war; there's less internal conflict going on (just Romanians getting ready to do a little genocide). So it would seem that the case for intervention would be more clear-cut and generally easier to get out. Thus, intervening "relatively" soon (ie., faster than in former Yugoslavia).

I think it depends extremely heavily on who is in the White House at the time and wether he’s getting investigated for receiving blow jobs in the oval office or not.
Without US leadership I don’t see the Europeans rushing in.

Those are some very interesting points!

In the book, the war ends with the Hungarians in control along the Transylvanian mountains and their ethnic brethren inside the area they occupy while a UN-brokered ceasefire gets the wheels turning on a peace deal.

It's interesting to think that the only way out of the situation without a massive retaliatory strike back at the ethnic Hungarians in Romania is to have the UN or NATO put a peacekeeping force on the ground there.

NATO troops in Romania? That's the closest the US would ever get to "invading the Warsaw Pact," I bet. :D
 

Cook

Banned
NATO troops in Romania? That's the closest the US would ever get to "invading the Warsaw Pact," I bet. :D

Aren’t there US troops in Georgia at the moment?:)

There is no way Hungary would have been allowed to annex Transylvania (shades of WW2 etc.) so some type of Autonomy deal and long term US / NATO (plus Russian paratroopers ala Kosovo) occupation would be a likely outcome.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Aren’t there US troops in Georgia at the moment?:)

There is no way Hungary would have been allowed to annex Transylvania (shades of WW2 etc.) so some type of Autonomy deal and long term US / NATO (plus Russian paratroopers ala Kosovo) occupation would be a likely outcome.

1993...we weren't anywhere else yet, were we? I'm trying to figure out what units could be deployed.

(the wanky part of me says "Airborne Regiment drop into Transylvania!" But I'm kind of wondering just what road system they have that would allow the heavy mechanized stuff we associate with Bosnia to be put in.

This might be a lighter peacekeeping force, more akin to what's in Afghanistan: lighter on the tanks and heavier on the Humvees and LAVs and such.
 
Given that the two-and-a-half counties are quite literally right in the middle of the country, the most likely outcome is a population transfer. Hungary has nowhere near enough clout to demand a Kaliningrad-style solution, and this isn't some sort of dubiously contested border region. It might even go towards a trilateral settlement, wherein Romanians from the Banat, Vojvodina or the Timok Valley are 'invited' out of Serbia (widely known for its stellar record regarding minorities rights) possibly along with a few Vlasch groups (there is precedent for the Vlasch being offered plots of land back in the late 19th century).
 

ninebucks

Banned
I suppose this wouldn't be strictly related to the topic, but what of Moldova? A very nationalistic Romania would probably be interested in it, and unless I'm mistaken there was a brief period after the Soviet Union's collapse where it looked like Moldova would join Romania.

In 1992, Moldova was fighting against the separatists in Transnistria. This would be the perfect time for a Romania-Moldova 'anschluss', as Moldova needs helping out with its war, and this hypothetical Romanian Nationalist government will win an early victory in its struggle to unite and purify the Romanian homeland.

This being 1992, Russia isn't in a position to oppose a foreign state annexing what, as early as two or three years ago, was part of its territory, but there will doubtless be resentment. This resentment may well hang over until the 00s, when Russia is in a position to act upon it.

As for a Romania-Hungary War, I don't think it's too likely. I think the likely outcome of a Romanian campaign against ethnic Hungarian citizens would be for Hungary to keep its borders open, and open refugee camps for any Hungarians crossing the border. Meanwhile, the EEC, with American and Russian support, imposes sanctions on Romania. The resulting poverty and unrest leads to the overthrow of the Romanian government within the next two years, but not before the government gets to crack down on everyone who it determines to be its enemy.

But by 1994, Romania is an old concern, as the Yugoslav Wars reach their zenith. The new, provisional government in Romania goes unnoticed. The union with Moldova remains, but Transnistrian separatists re-emerge. Civil unrest and extreme poverty blights the nation, and even by the current day, the nation is still seen as an irredeemable basket case, (so no EU membership).
 
In 1992, Moldova was fighting against the separatists in Transnistria. This would be the perfect time for a Romania-Moldova 'anschluss', as Moldova needs helping out with its war, and this hypothetical Romanian Nationalist government will win an early victory in its struggle to unite and purify the Romanian homeland.

This being 1992, Russia isn't in a position to oppose a foreign state annexing what, as early as two or three years ago, was part of its territory, but there will doubtless be resentment. This resentment may well hang over until the 00s, when Russia is in a position to act upon it.

As for a Romania-Hungary War, I don't think it's too likely. I think the likely outcome of a Romanian campaign against ethnic Hungarian citizens would be for Hungary to keep its borders open, and open refugee camps for any Hungarians crossing the border. Meanwhile, the EEC, with American and Russian support, imposes sanctions on Romania. The resulting poverty and unrest leads to the overthrow of the Romanian government within the next two years, but not before the government gets to crack down on everyone who it determines to be its enemy.

But by 1994, Romania is an old concern, as the Yugoslav Wars reach their zenith. The new, provisional government in Romania goes unnoticed. The union with Moldova remains, but Transnistrian separatists re-emerge. Civil unrest and extreme poverty blights the nation, and even by the current day, the nation is still seen as an irredeemable basket case, (so no EU membership).

From a historic or nationalistic standpoint, Transnistria was never part of Romania, and it's like 95% full of russians/ukranians, it would be logistically and politically sound just to let Transnistria go do its own thing, get annexed by Ukraine or independence and since we're talking about a Romania-Moldova union the separation of Transnistria is much more likely than not doing it like Moldova's OTL situation. Romania would have more than enough problems absorbing the extra territory without taking a pretty worthless piece of land full with russians that are itching for an insurection.

As for a Romanian-Hungarian war, well that's really a nonstarter, Hungary would be heavily outnumbered in every military sector, even though I don't have the numbers for the time period I'm pretty sure Romania's armed forces counted in the 1 million+ during that time, post revolution military reforms and troops reductions weren't done yet and even if Hungary manages to hold its own in a war, it has no chance of annexing the hungarian mojoroty regions in Romania, they are literally in the middle of the country.
 

There is no way Hungary would have been allowed to annex Transylvania (shades of WW2 etc.) so some type of Autonomy deal and long term US / NATO (plus Russian paratroopers ala Kosovo) occupation would be a likely outcome.


And what are we willing to do to stop them? Nuke them?

Eastern European ethnic nationalists tend not to give a rat's ass about public opinion in other countries unless it translates to bombs dropping on them.

There are US troops in western Germany, but they'd have to cross Germany to get there. And the Germans might not be too unhappy if Romania were hurt, considering the treatment of the German minority by the Romanian government.
 
In 1992, Moldova was fighting against the separatists in Transnistria. This would be the perfect time for a Romania-Moldova 'anschluss', as Moldova needs helping out with its war, and this hypothetical Romanian Nationalist government will win an early victory in its struggle to unite and purify the Romanian homeland.

This being 1992, Russia isn't in a position to oppose a foreign state annexing what, as early as two or three years ago, was part of its territory, but there will doubtless be resentment. This resentment may well hang over until the 00s, when Russia is in a position to act upon it.

Well that would certainly be awkward, in rl Moscow told the Russian army in Moldova to at least try and act neutral (emphasis on try), in this situation different commanders may be assigned than the ones in rl and maybe the whole 14th army could defect over to Transnistria. Well ok thats maybe a bit much, but it would be interesting.
 
Well that would certainly be awkward, in rl Moscow told the Russian army in Moldova to at least try and act neutral, in this situation different commanders may be assigned than the ones in rl and maybe the whole 14th army could defect over to Transnistria.

Defect or "defect"? :)
 
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