The Holocaust and Zionism in a no-Fall-of-France scenario?

CaliGuy

Banned
Someone previously asked this question more than a year ago here but didn't get much responses. Thus, I figured that I might as well give this a shot myself. Thus, here goes:

Had France not fallen in either 1940 or later, would there have been a Holocaust? If so, how many Jews would have died in this TL's Holocaust?

(Also, as a relevant side question, does the Schwarze Kapelle successfully overthrow Hitler and the Nazis during WWII in this TL? If so, when do they do this?)

Also, in this scenario/TL, what is the fate of the Zionist movement? Specifically, what do Britain and the international community do in response to the demands and aspirations of the Zionist movement after the end of WWII in this TL?

Any thoughts on all of this?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, since the Nazis have much less Jews under their rule in this TL, obviously there will be a much smaller Holocaust in this TL; indeed, the question is just how much smaller the Holocaust will be in this TL.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
For the record, my own educated guess here is this: In this TL, the Schwarze Kapelle will be more organized due to Hitler not having the 1940-1941 string of military successes to strengthen his rule and will thus be more likely to be successful in overthrowing Hitler and the Nazis than they were in our TL. In turn, this means that the Nazis end up killing between 500,000 and 1,000,000 Jews in this TL before they are overthrown and thus are thankfully unable to kill more Jews.

Now, with 500 thousand to 1 million dead Jews, the world will still have a lot of sympathy for the Jews and for the Zionist movement--albeit often not enough sympathy to allow large-scale Jewish immigration into their own countries. Thus, support for a Jewish homeland in Palestine would probably still be pretty large in the West in this TL.

However, the crucial question here is this--how exactly does Britain react to and handle all of this after the end of World War II in this TL?

Any thoughts on this?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
However, the crucial question here is this--how exactly does Britain react to and handle all of this after the end of World War II in this TL?
Simply by withdrawing from Palestine with no partition framework of Palestine being accepted beforehand? To elaborate on this, simply by having the Zionists and the Arabs fight it out after they (the British) leave Palestine?
 
I have never seen a thread before where the only posts so far were all consecutive posts made by the OP.
 
Last edited:
I have never seen a thread before where the only posts were all consecutive posts made by the OP.

The edit button would have been beneficial here.

The first question is how and where is the German advance halted and how many casualties are there on the allied (France and BEF) side. Let's assume that the Eben Emael fortress is not captured by paratroopers and is successful in its delaying action thereby allowing the allies to establish a defensive line on the Antwerp - Namur position. In time there would either be a stalemate along that defensive position or the German forces would be pushed back to the Siegfried line. In both situation the Germans have their hands full with an active front line.

Poland is still in a bad place, but the Jewish population in the Netherlands/Belgium and France should be relatively safe compared to OTL.
With France still in the game, Barbarossa is off the table and with it cruelties in Russia.

If the western front reaches a stalemate then it is questionable if Germany could spare the manpower and material for the pogroms and holocaust.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The edit button would have been beneficial here.

Sorry; clumsy me.

The first question is how and where is the German advance halted and how many casualties are there on the allied (France and BEF) side. Let's assume that the Eben Emael fortress is not captured by paratroopers and is successful in its delaying action thereby allowing the allies to establish a defensive line on the Antwerp - Namur position. In time there would either be a stalemate along that defensive position or the German forces would be pushed back to the Siegfried line. In both situation the Germans have their hands full with an active front line.

Frankly, all of this certainly sounds very reasonable. :) Indeed, the PoD that I am thinking of here is having France keep its strategic reserve at Rheims--as per the original plan--instead of sending it over to the Low Countries. As for the military consequences of this, you and other more knowledgeable people can tell me how exactly this will play out! :)

Poland is still in a bad place, but the Jewish population in the Netherlands/Belgium and France should be relatively safe compared to OTL.
With France still in the game, Barbarossa is off the table and with it cruelties in Russia.

Agreed with most of this; however, wouldn't the Nazis still occupy the Netherlands and possibly some or all of Belgium as well in this TL?

If the western front reaches a stalemate then it is questionable if Germany could spare the manpower and material for the pogroms and holocaust.

How many men were needed to conduct Babi Yar-style shootings as well as to run death camps, though?

Also, Germany had to deal with a stalemate on the Eastern Front after 1941 in our TL and yet still managed to kill millions of Jews during this time; indeed, what exactly are the relevant differences between our TL and this TL in regards to this? Basically, why would a stalemate limit Nazi Germany's abilities in regards to this in this TL but not in our TL?
 
Last edited:

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, two additional questions:

1. Would the lack of local "helpers" in regards to the Holocaust be the crucial factor in this TL? (After all, I am unsure that Poles, Dutch, et cetera were as willing to help the Nazis round up and kill Jews as the Balts and Ukrainians were in our TL.)

2. What would the fate and future of Zionism in this scenario be? Indeed, depending on how many Jews are killed in this TL, how exactly will Britain and the international community react to the aspirations of Zionists to create a Jewish state in Palestine after the end of World War II in this TL?
 
Sorry; clumsy me.

Agreed with most of this; however, wouldn't the Nazis still occupy the Netherlands and possibly some or all of Belgium as well in this TL?

In the scenario i sketched the Germans either occupy part of Belgium or have been pushed back to the Siegfried line.
In 1940 the BEF and French army had a numerical advantage and without a blitzkrieg style breakthrough which pushed the allies of balance the numbers game comes into play. With a stalemate on the western front the Germans simply do not have enough men and material to proceed with ethnic cleansing.

It may be interesting to real calbear's scenario although i am not sure if he addressed the holocaust and pogroms in his TL.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
In the scenario i sketched the Germans either occupy part of Belgium or have been pushed back to the Siegfried line.
In 1940 the BEF and French army had a numerical advantage and without a blitzkrieg style breakthrough which pushed the allies of balance the numbers game comes into play. With a stalemate on the western front the Germans simply do not have enough men and material to proceed with ethnic cleansing.

Why did the Germans have enough men to do this in our TL in spite of their deteriorating situation on the Eastern Front starting from late 1941 (in our TL), though?

It may be interesting to real calbear's scenario although i am not sure if he addressed the holocaust and pogroms in his TL.

Do you have a link to this TL, please?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, two additional questions:

1. Would the lack of local "helpers" in regards to the Holocaust be the crucial factor in this TL? (After all, I am unsure that Poles, Dutch, et cetera were as willing to help the Nazis round up and kill Jews as the Balts and Ukrainians were in our TL.)

2. What would the fate and future of Zionism in this scenario be? Indeed, depending on how many Jews are killed in this TL, how exactly will Britain and the international community react to the aspirations of Zionists to create a Jewish state in Palestine after the end of World War II in this TL?
Also, if you don't mind, can you please respond to these two questions of mine?
 
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/the-anglo-american-nazi-war.211950/

The Eastern Front was a mostly a fluid front due to the terrain, while the western front was smaller and had more potential for static defense (Canals and prepared defenses.).

Static defensive scenarios eat up a lot more manpower than fluid warfare. A good example of that is the war in Italy and the defensive lines there.

There is also the fact that there were a lot of volunteers from the occupied countries and Hitler's eastern European allies to fight the communists. So a static front would eat up manpower while OTL the fall of France actually provided Germany with a new source of volunteers.
 
Last edited:

Deleted member 94680

The holocaust (Final Solution) was implemented when there was an acknowledgement that the War would not be won.

In this scenario I can't see this changing, therefore your holocaust will be limited to Nazi-occupied areas as you have them. Extrapolate populations from there.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The holocaust (Final Solution) was implemented when there was an acknowledgement that the War would not be won.

Yes; correct!

In this scenario I can't see this changing, therefore your holocaust will be limited to Nazi-occupied areas as you have them. Extrapolate populations from there.

I'm still trying to figure out whether you or Broek is correct in regards to the resources part, though; indeed, how hurtful would a stalemate in the West be to the Nazis' pursuit of their genocidal aims and "dreams"?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, in a worst-case scenario where we see about/around 2 million Jews killed in this TL's Holocaust, how successful would the Zionist movement be after the end of this TL's World War II?
 

Deleted member 94680

Yes; correct!

Are you marking me like some kind of teacher?

I'm still trying to figure out whether you or Broek is correct in regards to the resources part, though; indeed, how hurtful would a stalemate in the West be to the Nazis' pursuit of their genocidal aims and "dreams"?

Whether I or Broek are correct? What are you, some kind of holocaust arbiter or something?

FWIW, as far as I see it, the holocaust didn't have that much effect on the Nazi's war effort until the Endgame in '45. Einsatzgruppen cooperation aside, the majority of the work was done by SS or Police forces and the Army stayed largely out of it. The SS-TV manned the holocaust, so a smaller holocaust would potentially allow more men to be used by the Heer or the Waffen-SS.

Also, in a worst-case scenario where we see about/around 2 million Jews killed in this TL's Holocaust, how successful would the Zionist movement be after the end of this TL's World War II?

I for one find it distasteful in the extreme to link numbers of dead in the holocaust to the success or not of the Zionist movement. All I'll say on this aspect is if there are death camps in the nazi territory the effect will be the same regardless of how many million people you decide to have died. If the deaths are 'limited' to Babi-Yar style shootings, then there is a chance the British will treat the Zionists post-War as 'simply' a terrorist organisation. This might effect the difficulties they had OTL reconciling the treatment of the Jews with Stern Gang/Lehi/Irgun actions in '46 or so.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Are you marking me like some kind of teacher?

No; rather, I am simply saying that you are correct here.

Whether I or Broek are correct? What are you, some kind of holocaust arbiter or something?

No; rather, I simply want to try figuring out the most likely scenario in such a case.

Indeed, making such accusations against me isn't very pleasant! :(

FWIW, as far as I see it, the holocaust didn't have that much effect on the Nazi's war effort until the Endgame in '45. Einsatzgruppen cooperation aside, the majority of the work was done by SS or Police forces and the Army stayed largely out of it. The SS-TV manned the holocaust, so a smaller holocaust would potentially allow more men to be used by the Heer or the Waffen-SS.

OK; understood.

I for one find it distasteful in the extreme to link numbers of dead in the holocaust to the success or not of the Zionist movement.

Look--I myself had many Jewish relatives who were killed in the Holocaust; indeed, I would certainly prefer having no Holocaust and no Israel rather than a Holocaust and an Israel (were those two options the only ones available, that is).

However, this is an alternate history site and thus hopefully the questions that I raised here are legitimate questions to talk and debate about. Indeed, it wouldn't be very interesting if we will be unable to talk about the more controversial alternate history topics; frankly, do you not agree with this?

All I'll say on this aspect is if there are death camps in the nazi territory the effect will be the same regardless of how many million people you decide to have died.

OK; thus, if something like 80% of the total Jews under Nazi rule got killed in our TL, this would probably be about 2 million Holocaust deaths in this TL. After all, the total Jewish population under Nazi rule in this TL would probably be something like 2.5 million, and 80% of 2.5 million is 2 million.

If the deaths are 'limited' to Babi-Yar style shootings, then there is a chance the British will treat the Zionists post-War as 'simply' a terrorist organisation. This might effect the difficulties they had OTL reconciling the treatment of the Jews with Stern Gang/Lehi/Irgun actions in '46 or so.

So, are you suggesting that the British will give armed Zionist groups the exact same treatment after the end of World War II in such a scenario as they did to armed Palestinian Arabs during the 1936-1939 Great Arab Revolt?
 
Top