The Hindenburg Line Holds

1918, France. The Germans have just been defeated in a massive Allied counterattack, after their own attack stalled a few kilometers away from Paris. The Allies are pushing the Gerrmans back. Even Ludendorf seems to be accepting the defeat.
However, the Germans retreat into the Hindenburg Line. In our world, the Allies plowed through it. However, what if the Hindenburg Line held? What if trench warfare came back?
How could this happen? How would this affect the course of the war?
 
Eventually the blockade's going to do them in if nothing else at this point. The last surge towards Paris was something of a desperation move to knock France out of the war.

Though if Germany holds signifigant chunks of France, this might get them a better peace deal.
 
It requires a different German conduct. - Having failed to achieve annihilation of a sizeable portion of the enemy, the Germans fall back in late May/early June 1918. (For this, Ludendorff has to go, so he insults the Kaiser and is sent to Palestine after the 'Amiens Crisis'.)
The Allies think they've defeated the Germans (just like they thought after the Alberich Retreat in 1917) - and attack...
But receive an answer (like at Cambrai in 1917) by an totally unbroken and still rather aggressive German Army (with good access to the supply depots).
Learning this, Pétain switches to the 'wait and see' modus, while Haig uses up the scarce British reserves.
Enter the Americans: After the fiasco of Meuse et Argonne, even Pershing gets careful in late 1918.
 
I don't think this can stop the revolutions in the Navy, and with the ongoing blockade causing starvation this probably extends to the front lines. In this time line, the 'stab in the back' is more realistic call from the embittered German right.

The other three theatres probably collapse as per OTL, as the Germans still lack any ability to reinforce them.

All in all, it'll lengthen the war, probably into 1919, but there will still be an Entente victory. Not sure on the effect on the peace treaty, but I can't see it being good.
 

Neroon

Banned
Germany's defeat was most definetly inevitable by then. However if they hadn't lost their nerve in OTL they might have got better peace terms than Versailles. So a possible result would be Germany still throwing the towel after the line holds, but with a better bargaining position. Having Germany still loose but with milder terms might save the world a lot of hurt further down the line.
 
A Germany having decided for the defensive might find it useful to send some divisions to Italy and Macedonia again, thus the collapse of the allies might not be as total as IOTL or not happen in 1918 at all.
Only in 1919, with US troop strength really arrived and ready, will a decision be reached.
The navy mutinies came about because the admirals had decided that a last glorious battle was required in order to safeguard the navy's future. Without this decision, the navy would most probably remain calm.
The Germans were hungry since 1916 - and they would continue to be so until 1920. Yet, they were not starving. The increased death rate came from weakness caused by malnutrition, but nobody actually starved to death, they only succumbed to illness much faster.
 
I think accelerating collapse on the home front of Germany is the inevitable consequence of holiding out longer, with famine likely in the cities, and probably a harder peace imposed by the Allied on an even more internally weakened Germany.
 
This doesn't change that all of Germany's allies are gone and a brand new front is opening up along Bavaria and Silesia, not to mention that all the gains in the east will have to be abandoned before the German forces in Russia are isolated and destroyed.

This isn't an impossible POD as Ludendorf actually abandoned most of Germany's lines in France, throwing away @150,000 soldiers to hold off the Allies for the retreating German Army. If he makes a stand with everything he's got, at shattering cost to Germany...
 
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