See a major factor of getting France to side with Austria, was the influence of Pompadour. She got the Austrian diplomats to the king in 1756, and motivated him to side with Austria. It was only after this alliance that Prussia was firmly pushed into Britain's camp. Since Louis has come to the 'realization' of the British War threat, he would want to have more leverage against Britain in the continent. By offering Prussia trade deals, an alliance to possibly seize Hanover, and gain an ally against Austria (potentially), Louis has a greater chance of wooing Frederick into the French Camp, leaving Britain absolutely helpless in the continent. Plus now that Pompadour has lost her influence in the French court, there is less persuasion to get France to ally with its traditional archenemy, Austria
Well no matter, this is only going to make Prussia's strategic situation far worse. Prussia is surrounded by enemies....Russia, Austria, Sweden, Saxony and now Hannover. Holding down Hannover will mean the Prussian's do not have the forces that would normally be used in holding back the Saxons or containing the Swedes in Pommerania-Stralsund and when the joint forces of Elisabeth and MT finally start to steam roller the Prussians in the East they won't last in this TL some of their forces will have been diverted west to Hannover and Pommerania. Its probably going to be just enough given that MT will also have the Br. subsidy for marginally stronger forces as well. She is not going to let Silesia slip out of her grasp again if she can help it, and couldn't care less about the Austrian Netherlands, she is more than happy to negotiate it away to the French if need be (perhaps salvaging Luxembourg if she can in some kind of independent satus within the empire, not necessarily Hapsburg though, the Exchange for Bourbon-Parma comes to mind at this point.)
Prussia is likely to be steamrollered out of existence a year earlier this time around, Frederick dies on the Battlefield, as was his desire leaving his heir tomake peace as best he can. Probably reduced to just the Electorate of Brandenburg (the Tsarina was adamant on that point).
As to promising the Prussian's Hannover if they have an interest in it...Itsd been a keystone of french policy to take the electorate to use as a bargaining chip to return for its losses over seas. I don't see how that changes....The French colonies despite changes are still woefully inferior to their English cousins. Of course, promising and delivering are two entirely different things. If the British come to Frederick with an offer, it will be hard for him to resist the urge to at least attempt to secure his backside. While Mme de Pompadour did wield considerable influence at the court of Louis XV, I think you are severly discounting the role that Von Kaunitz and Pitt played. Austria and Britain have entirely different strategic objectives that cannot be reconciled. However an alliance between the two is better than none at all. The Austrians only really gave up once the British had signed the Westminister Convention and discarded the alliance with Vienna. If Pitt (a Prussian champion in Britain) is less influential.
of course there is a way out. Br neutrality in a renewed Austro Prussian conflict, and Prussian neutrality in a Franco British..of course then Frederick would be signing away that for which he is signing his alliance with France (Hannover) and expecting France not to march on the Austrian Netherlands is a non-starter since its also a key foreign policy objective on the continent and that will in itself essentially make both conflicts one.
As to an alliance with the Dutch, not possible...they already fear for their mortal existence should the French gain the Austrian Netherlands (its why they in addition to the British insisted that Austria retain them after the last round), not to mention the consequences of commercial competition from the opening of the Scheldt and the port of Antwerp.
And then there are the butterflies of chance....ah, it will be interesting to see where you take this, But I do hope Credibility is not stretched to breaking...
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