Would this war stay as a Regional conflict, or escalate to a World war?

  • Regional Conflict

  • World war


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Germaniac

Donor
The Austro-Ottomans loose this war. They likely lose their empires. This kind of blatant disregard for the norms of European diplomacy will be destabilizing. Germany and Austria will not be allied. I see them much more likely to embrace Italy and work towards a new detente with Russia. The Germans would not forgive the Austrians for this breaking of the system.

Enver Pasha was terribly serious about his job. He was also serious about murdering and ethnic cleansing. The Ottomans would be better off with him in a shallow grave near Tripoli, better yet he slips and breaks his neck in 1909 on his way to the capital.
 
IF Austria get involved they are forcing themselves into a wider conflict. Without support from Germany, Russia will give a blank check to the Serbians, Bulgarians, and Montenegrins. The Austrians will be forced into a war with the nascent "Balkan League" simply through its "required" occupation of Novi Pazar (which if they are allied to the Ottomans they will be required to defend to protect their southern border).

The Balkan powers will see this as their opportunity to break both powers (especially if the Austria-Ottoman have no allies). The Italians will hold the Austrians in the Alps, blockade both by sea, and the Bulgarians will be in the gates of Istanbul. The Italians take albania, the Greeks get thessaly, the Bulgarians get salonika and erdine. The Serbs focus on Skopje and Sarajevo. The CUP collapses and anarchy or military dictatorship takes over the final days of the Ottoman Empire.

In other words a MUCH worse situation post war than in ww1.

The Ottomans don't need the Austrians... they just need time. A luxury the Balkan League was not willing to provide.

Germany is still gonna protect the Austro-Hungarians, and I would say the Balkan league could get wrapped up in squabbles. Greece really wanted to do its whole Neo-Byzantium thing, so Bulgaria encroaching on Constantinople is something everyone else wanted. The Turks have weakened enough already, it's soon internal war of the Balkan league for power. Germany is gonna defend Austria-Hungary, who is also defending the Ottomans. Germany humiliated France, but Russia was way scarier than France. If Russia wins this war, Germany is gonna be alone for France, Russia, and Britan to push them around. Germany would go to war with Russia in that scenario. Russia sure doesn't want war with Germany, and the Turks were too weakened that the Balkan league would soon fragment, and start fighting amongst each other.
 
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The Austro-Ottomans lose this war. They likely lose their empires. This kind of blatant disregard for the norms of European diplomacy will be destabilizing. Germany and Austria will not be allied. I see them much more likely to embrace Italy and work towards a new detente with Russia. The Germans would not forgive the Austrians for this breaking of the system.

Enver Pasha was terribly serious about his job. He was also serious about murdering and ethnic cleansing. The Ottomans would be better off with him in a shallow grave near Tripoli, better yet he slips and breaks his neck in 1909 on his way to the capital.

I would say the Germans would probably be angry on the Austro-Hungarians, but since Franz Joseph, I will die in less than 5 years, they could see promise in Franz Ferdinand. Also the Germans getting mad at the Austro-Hungarians could cate other European powers to slide into Austria-Hungary, so they could fragment Prussia. A unified Germany is way worse.
 

Germaniac

Donor
I would say the Germans would probably be angry on the Austro-Hungarians, but since Franz Joseph, I will die in less than 5 years, they could see promise in Franz Ferdinand. Also the Germans getting mad at the Austro-Hungarians could cate other European powers to slide into Austria-Hungary, so they could fragment Prussia. A unified Germany is way worse.

FF was a very controversial figure. He is painted as this enlightened guy who was going to solve the ethnic issues of the Empire, in reality its unlikely he will succeed in this. The Hungarians are DEAD SET against him. They are not going to give an inch of Hungarian crown lands away to ethnic minorities. But this topic isnt about that, but just assuming that he is a magic pull to A-H problems is probably over optimistic.

At this time Germany and Italy are VERY close diplomatically, arguably closer than Germany and her southern neighbor. If A-H openly breaks the Triple Alliance Germany simply cannot remain close with A-H. Most in Germany knew that A-H was a corpse held together by tradition, this will lead to a swift death to their alliance. Germany now with only Italy as an ally will look towards either Britain or Russia and they are far more likely to find a friend in cousin Nicky than in Britain.
 
FF was a very controversial figure. He is painted as this enlightened guy who was going to solve the ethnic issues of the Empire, in reality its unlikely he will succeed in this. The Hungarians are DEAD SET against him. They are not going to give an inch of Hungarian crown lands away to ethnic minorities. But this topic isnt about that, but just assuming that he is a magic pull to A-H problems is probably over optimistic.

At this time Germany and Italy are VERY close diplomatically, arguably closer than Germany and her southern neighbor. If A-H openly breaks the Triple Alliance Germany simply cannot remain close with A-H. Most in Germany knew that A-H was a corpse held together by tradition, this will lead to a swift death to their alliance. Germany now with only Italy as an ally will look towards either Britain or Russia and they are far more likely to find a friend in cousin Nicky than in Britain.

Is Franz Ferdinand someone who would completely solve the ethnic troubles of Austria-Hungary? No. Is he someone better than his father who has ruled in a world of the 1800s, and understands the progress of modernization. Yes. He hated the Slavs, but if he globalized the empire, it would have been a lot easier.
 

Germaniac

Donor
Just to nitpick, FF want Franz Joseph's son. FJ's son Rudolf died awhile back, a very interesting story by the way. He actually didn't particularly Hate the Slavs... but oh boy did he hate the Hungarians... and they hated him.
 
Just to nitpick, FF want Franz Joseph's son. FJ's son Rudolf died awhile back, a very interesting story by the way. He actually didn't particularly Hate the Slavs... but oh boy did he hate the Hungarians... and they hated him.

There would have to be Civil war, but Hungary wouldn't win it. Austria and the other ethnicities have the population advantage, and Hungary would have to accept equality to all ethnicities. I think in this timeline if this war stays regional, Franz Ferdinand might want to get German funding to maybe alter the geography of the empire, and fund industrial projects to interconnect the empire, with railways, and maybe start opening relation with other ethnicities. Hungary would be a problem, but if Franz Ferdinand can even slightly get ethnicities on his back saying "I am a liberator, I can make your life better" He's gonna have a lot more power. When Austria-Hungary wins this war, it would unite all ethnicities under a victory and might be a good time to implement the United States o Greater Austria. It's just my theory though.
 
Just to nitpick, FF want Franz Joseph's son. FJ's son Rudolf died awhile back, a very interesting story by the way. He actually didn't particularly Hate the Slavs... but oh boy did he hate the Hungarians... and they hated him.
Because he knew what the Magyar were playing and he wanted the Empire ( a hasburg one over the dual Empire) to prosper, he wanted an excuse to sideline and defang Magyar magnates, the USGA, the ausgleich crisis , something to reform the Empire in something stronger better
 
Because he knew what the Magyar were playing and he wanted the Empire ( a hasburg one over the dual Empire) to prosper, he wanted an excuse to sideline and defang Magyar magnates, the USGA, the ausgleich crisis , something to reform the Empire in something stronger better

This is important, because if there is Austro-Hungarian intervention, the Habsburgs are united under victory, and Franz Ferdinand can get away with small reformations that would greatly unify the empire.
 
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