alternatehistory.com

In 1996 Greece and Turkey came pretty close to war, when a crisis erupted over the small islands of Imia/Kardak.

In the end war was avoided, after the intervention of the US and after both sides decided to pull their forces away.

For those who need more info:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imia/Kardak

During the crisis, Greek special forces were stationed on one of the two small islands, but the other island was left unsecured. The turkish side did not notice this deployment and later on carried out a successfull landing on the second unsecured island with their speicla forces.
According to later reports, a second team of Greek special forces was being readied to secure the second island a couple of hours before the Turks disembarked, but the operation was delayed because of bad weather and bad radio batteries (!).

It is highly probable that if the Turks tried to land on the island that had been secured by the Greeks before, the Greeks would have opened fire upon them.
Considerable naval forces were stationed around the islands, which have already targetted the other sides ships.

In retrospect the Greek side was on a higher stage of alert than the Turkish side, having deployed its entire fleet and having already started calling up reservists.


What would have happened if this crisis turned into a shooting war.
How soon would it end?
Would the Turks manage to secure bigger islands or successfully invade Thrace and press the Greeks on the bargaining table?
Would the Greek higher level of readiness pay itself off?
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