The Greater Game: An Early Cold War Timeline

A war in which the main belligerents never come directly to blows: looking back it seems like an impossible concept. War is after all, to quote one of Germany's most prominent theorists on the subject "The continuation of politics by other means"; what happens when politicans fail and the generals take charge. Diplomats fade into the background, soldiers march to the forefront,and all other questions of society subsumed into the goal of making the opponent bend to your will. Victory is a matter of hard power and clear goals, extracted at the point of a spear or bayonet. German writings of this historical anomoly we find ourselves in reflect that view, giving it the dismissive name Das Herrspiel: The Gentleman's Game. Only a culture as insulated from the front lines of actual battle as the Anglo-Saxons could consider the state of affairs for the last century as worthy of our own label of "Cold War". While their authors have accumilated a great collection of works on the Continetal conflicts and colonial insurgencies, on the whole there keep a clear line between "military" and "diplomatic" history with relations to the English speaking world regulated formly to the later.

This may strike the majority of our readers as odd, given the pride the United Kingdom and, later, United States has taken in keeping our conflict civilized. Perhaps the self-same isolation from the horrors of total war that give us the clear,unjaded perspective to see how mankind couldn't afford to see the current rivalry settled by conventional means. Unlike the last Hunderad Years War, where death was delivered at the speed and reach of men under the orders of kings, modern societies have the capacity to snuff out thousands of lives in a mere minute and must answer to their citizens, who generally take execution to the idea of mass slaughter. Instead, prestige and economics is paramount, with the key being the hearts and wallets of peoples across the world. Where violence does occur, it is by proxy: the various "Little Wars" and "Internal Police Actions" that have occurred around the world. While less glorious than the campaigns of old, this topic is no less important and deserves a full coverage.

In this piece, the author will attempt to provide a definitive coverage of the relations between Britain and Germany, and later America and Germany, since the end of the Second Franco-Prussian War of 1914. To do so, however, requires stepping into the ever shifting debate over just when the "Cold War Diplomacy" began. Many scholars will push the idea that the Anglo-German Rivalry became inevitable with the First Franco-Prussian War, the displacement if France as the primary European military power being too much of a disruption of Britain's policy of maintaining a balance of power on the Continent. Others, among whom the author is included, contest this by pointing to the success of Edwardian-era diplomacy at effectively reconciling with France and Russia to build an effective alliance of containment. With the end of the naval buildup race following Germany scrapping it's overly ambitious Dreadnaught building schedule in 1912, it was clear Chancellor Bethmamn-Hollweg recognized that his nation couldn't challenge the status quo so long as the so-called "Triple Entente" remained stable, and there was no reason the post-71 compromise couldn't be maintained at least relative to Germany. Certainly, a challenge would have come from somewhere: with Russia developing a full clip and contantly probing for routes of expansion since the Crimea, but as fate would have it Russia woul reveal her aims too early.

It is here we shall begin our story, on the date the author beleives the policy of Russian reproachment became politically untenable and thus the factors containing German acendency removed. For on March 15th of 1913, during that point in the first stage of the Balkan Conflict where the Bulgarian army was marching into the surrendered city of Adrianople/Edrine and were preparing for a deeper strike towards Konstantinyye itself, that Forgein Ministery under Sasonov transmitted a scandaluous message to Sofia, which read

Given the course of recent events, it is the opinion of His Majesty the Emperor Nicholas that the question of Constantinople and the Straits will be solved finally in the face of the rapid dissolution of the Empire of the Turks. Any solution which does not place the City of Constantinople, the Western shores of the Bosphorus, the sea Marmara and the Dardenelles within the domain or exclusive interest of the Russian Empire will be considered unsatisfactory and insufficient to address our security concerns, and we expect any settlement reached between the Balkan League and the Turkish Empire to include unimpeded and duty-free access to all Russian ships
 
A blunt, casual demand on the part of the Russian Foreign Office, though understandable in the context of their long-term foreign policy goals, did much to undo the image their Pan-Slavic propaganda and local agents had carefully cultivated of a simple moral champion of their co-religionists against the harsh repressive measures imposed by the Islamic Turkish government. While Tsar Ferdinand shared their dream of liberating Constantinople and returning it to the Orthodox fold, in his mind it was as the cornerstone of a New Byzantium (With him at the head of course) which would restore the Balkans as an independent power in Europe. For Russia to insist on claiming the city when it was his armies advancing on it and they hadn't shed a drop of blood in the current war showed a sense of entitlement to the labors of the Balkan League and casual disregard for their ambitions. Already somewhat skeptic of St.Petersburg's intentions following their favoritism towards Serbia the mention of "security concerns" only served to strengthen the voice of the Russophobe factions within the Bulgarian court and general staff, who raised the possibility of the Black Sea Fleet intervening to secure the city if the Ottomans showed signs of retreating to Anatolia, giving them the advantage of military possession in the post-war treaties. Unwilling tolerate the personal insult of having his prize snatched out from under him by his so-called friends, Ferdinand took the fateful step of forwarding the communique as a warning to Rear-Admiral Arthur Limpus of the British naval mission in Constantinople, advising he keep the fleet on guard as Russia had expressed intentions to annex or occupy the Straits in the event of the lose of Turkish authority there while assuring him Bulgaria would abide by the terms being hammered out at the London Conference. This short messag which was meant as a private warning to the little Balkan powers not to stand in the way of Russia's vital interests would erupt into a minor diplomatic scandals as the officer dutifully dispatched the information to his compatriots in the British Embassy and, more importantly, First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill.

The fact this information was filtered through the Admiralty insured the British government would take a sea-power view of the Balkan situation; touching on a key plank in the Empire's traditional foreign policy. Though they valued Russia's participation in providing a counterweight to the Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy) on land and had been willing to concede fringe concerns in Central and Southern Asia, it was quite another thing to stand by as they laid the groundwork for a vast expansion of her influence into the vacuum created by the crumbling Ottoman authority and the formation of a regional hegemony. In response to this information Firs Lord Churchill ordered a general review of the Royal Navy's logistical and military position relative to their Russian counterpart, revealing many facts that worried the bellicose politician. While German's cut-backs to naval construction after reaching her budgetary limits revealed they lacked the means to contest Britain's position as the dominant navy, Russia had rebuilt her fleet stronger than ever before since its piecemeal destruction at the hands of the Japanese; a situation which insured most of her ships were of new construction compared to their British counterparts and were growing more numerous by the year. Meanwhile, just as the Royal Navy was attempting to shift over from coal-powered vessels to more powerful petroleum equivalents, the Russians dominated oil production and refining in Eurasia: the facilities in the Caucuses producing over half of Europe's oil and Britain's supplies on the Persian Gulf and soon to be developed concessions in Mesopotamia as part of the Anglo-Turkish Oil Company at grave risk should Russia acquire a dominant position in the Near East following a disintegration of the Ottoman Empire. In his summery of the situation to Sir Edward Grey, he wrote...

"I have been convinced possession of Constantinople and the Straits would bring her (Russia) by way of the Mediterranean into the concert of the the colonial nations. By virtue of her abundance of fuel and growing industry she is desined to become a great naval power, thus the European balance of power will be entirely changed. Such an aggrandizement would not be acceptable to us, as we could not secure any advantages we might gain from such a partition. It would be a grave political mistake to trust the security of the Empire of the continued good will of a known tyrannical and covetous regime, particularly when our position in the East and at home is under heavy pressure."

This last point held more than one meaning for the Liberal cabinet, as their hold on the government was tenuous with the 74 Irish Parliamentarian members of their coalition the key to maintaining a majority in the House of Commons. Already the hard-line stance they demanded on the issue of Home Rule for Ireland; government for the whole island by a single Parliament in Dublin, was swelling into a potential crisis with half a million Protestants in the Ulster counties threatening to resist any attempt to impose "Rome Rule" on the north by the majority Catholic population of the rest of island with force and had driven several MP's to cross the floor and split off into a separate Liberal Unionist party. With the rising terrorist activity in Ireland and India magnifying Carson and Balfour's message of supporting Imperial Loyalists "Who's only crime is love of country" (As Carson put it in a speech before the Commons) in a more reasonable partition, the humiliation of surrendering the keys to the Eastern Med. and the Empire's Suez lifeline could sink the government or cripple their reputation among the military they may need to enforce whatever Bill came out of Parliament relating to the Irish Question. Churchill in particular had become adamant the Ulstermen must accept Home Rule and that force would be necessary, their organization into the paramilitary Ulster Defense Force and mass signing of the Ulster Covenant (which called for blatant disobedience to a parliament legitimately appointed by and loyal to the government and Crown) seen not as loyalty but treasonous and a personal challenge. For this climate, a firm show of Britain's willingness and ability to defend her interests was seen as the best way to shore up the domestic situation; both in intimidating the terrorists with a demonstration the Navy was capable of conducting swift decisive action and stabilizing the government long enough to get through a compromise solution on Ireland and consolidate without Balfour using the "Ulster backdoor" to get back into power and reverse their dearly won budgetary and tariff reforms. Out of these goals, a modest four part response was organized by the Cabinet to ensure a peaceful settlement in Thrace.

First, instructions were explicitly sent to the negotiators at the peace conference that no territory or special privileges were to be granted to non-belligerent powers. Second, instructions were sent to the Embassy to re-invite the Turkish delegation to the affairs as a full party, offering a carrot that their active participation would insure active pushes for a clause enforcing post-settlement guarantees of the Empire's full territorial integrity backed by an increased British naval presence in the region and the support of a land military mission to drill the new Turkish army in modern tactics, specifically delivering the message to the known Pro-Western (or the least Germophile) member of the current ruling triumvirate Minister of the Marine Djemal Pasha. Third, and official statement of displeasure was lodged with Sasinov's office, gently reminding them that the rules of diplomatic etiquette call for these kinds of niatives be discussed openly and that they are not the only nation with security concerns. Finally, to give all these various words weight the Portsmouth Battalion of the Royal Marine Infantry was to be transferred to Cyprus, the first sign that a British presence could be established in the Near East if need be
 
The arrival of the British gurantee and revelation of Russia's diplomatic meddling greatly strengthened the war faction's position in the Capital; being touted as an example by the leaders of the January Coup that their new regeime was winning favor on the international scene. Enver Pasha, as now-minister of war, could now focus all his efforts on defending the city and organizing the steadily arriving reinforcements from the Asian regions of the Empire with confidence that his military experience would allow him to outwit the Bulgarians and gain the glory of liberating Edrine. This was not without resentment; of the triumverate which ran Turkey he was taking the brunt of the critisism for recent loses and the now reversed and discredited decision to withdraw from the London peace talks, but he could not ignore the danger an active Russian gambit on the straits posed towards his hopes of a swift recovery and reconsolidation of his war-ravaged nation. With all his time and energies focused on the front and his reputation with the small and tight knit diplomatic community already tarnished, he allowed Djemal and Taalat: the pragmatic Grand Vizier,almost total control over the matter of forgein relations.

Taalat greatly appreciated the additional latitude, as out of the three he considered himself both the most apt politican and least apt general, and took to this excuse to avoid discussing what he called "that bussiness of brutes" with gusto. Unlike when Enver was the face of the CUP, with his favoratism towards the German ambassador eating up most of their time, Taalat conversed far more regularly with the British represenative Louis Mallat. Expressing the veiws of many of the civilian politicans, he expressed an exhaustion with war and the desire for internal reforms as well as the fear of forced servitude to another power. Though unsure of exactly where his vacillating government stood on the long-term subject of Turkey Mallat always made sure he was available to process any of the Vizier's question, making sure to play up the long standing anamosity of both their nations towards Russia and the possible remidies Britain might be able to provide towards the nation's economic situation. The system of Capitulations; a haphazard assortment of various trading concessions built up over the centuries by different European nations, were after all an irregular code of commerce that clashed with Asquith's official dedication to fair and equal trade. If Turkey were to remain stalwart in defending the status quo in the Straits and retain regular commerce with Britain, there was no reason why these could not be rationalized to the government's advantage,and with the growing importance of petrolium and it's clear presence in the Ottomans domain the capital investment of London could be made available to help give Turkey the modern infastructure his vision required, secured by future revenues from the extraction contracts.

The Russian ambassidor in Constantinople was alarmed by the frequent meetings between the Vizer and his British colleague and attempted vainly to correct the situation. In dispatch dispatchs to the Porte, the message was spun as an attempt to disuade the Bulgarians from launching an all out attack on the city that had been misunderstood. As a former telegraph operator and expert in communications, however, Taalat saw this as the desperate improvised excuse it was and the Russian ambassador quickly found himself out of place in the Turkish capital. Fearing expulsion back to Russia in failure: aware of what it would do to his carrier, the dispatches back to Sasanov's office great more disconcerting by the day. Not helping matters was the fact British squadrons were making an increasing number of cruises towards the Dardinelles, co-operating in the closure of the Straits to shipping implimented during wartime that left the exports worth export languishing on the docks at the crippling lose of 30 million pound roubles a month in profits? Though only temporary and perfectly justifable,to the Russians this disruption drove home the vital commercial importance of the trade route to the continued development of the Donbas-Volga region and with it the prosperity the Czarist regeime counted on to ward off the political dissent that boiled over in 05-06. Sasanov, when trying to (perhaps retroactively) justify his hard stance in his memoirs, argued

The Turkish colosure of the Straits at the start of the Balkans conflict revealed that the Sick Man (Ottomans) was still a forgien factor unfriendly to us even in peacetime. Free Passage through the Sea of Marmara had taken on the significance to the Russian economy that breathing had to the health of a man, and that a dagger had been poised at our throat by a tempermental and desperate regeime. The War in the East revealed the dangers of peicemeal wars; the spectere of Revolution that lurked on the edge of our nation and would grab at us with any slip. If I truely loved Russia, as I would my own wife, I would not trust anyone seeking to deny her the Straits as I would a hanging pogram!

From this point forward, whenever Sasanov spoke in terms of Russian power he always started by mentioning the Straits. And he was not alone; the acceptable factions in Russian politics of the 1910's were all in agreement they were vital to the welfare of their state. Even the Kadets; who's ambitions were the most well defined and restrained, voiced public support for the annexation when questioned by irrate British envoys. Besides their own substantial investments and interests in the Empire (and lack of similar influence in the Balkans), in the suspicious climate of the age this insistence stoked worries that this would only be the first step in a broader expansionist policy. All the experts and national militaries agreed that world power went hand in hand with sea power, and Russia's bold claim made her appear over-demanding and raised the question of what directions her ambitions lay. Added to the alliance with Serbia, who were advocating hard with Russian assistance for the broad annexation of the ethnically Albanian Adriatic coast with the intent of building it's own navy, and hard-line attempts to convince the other powers to reject any Turkish seat at the negotiating table despite the presence of the Balkan League, and it was clear enough a break-up of the Empire and westward expansion was being more than hinted at. Thus, on the moarning of April 5th the British passed on two invitations for talks to the Germans: one to the deligates in London, the other to Ambassador Konrad von Wagenheim...
 
Top