The Great War Stalemate?- Communism and what else

[CountDVB]

Let's get creative. We really do not discuss what if World War One ended in a draw, if because the idea of either side conceding is hard to imagine along with whatever reasons people will point to say why it cannot happen or why the Entente was destined or so on and so forth.

That's not the point of this.

Let's say the Americans don't get invovled in the war and it drags onto say 1919 with both sides on the literal verge of collapse and they sign treaties that basically make it a white peace, all while each side finds a scapegoat to try and toss under the bus. For the Mittelmächte , it would be Austria-Hungary, which would likely fall apart and for the Entente, it'd probably be the Serbs.

So what happens?

I mean, the Russian Civil War is now more one-sided toward the Reds' favor, but what else?

Would the Spartakist uprising have happened or would they try a different tactic by exploiting the resentment of the inanity of it toward the leaders?

Would Stalin still take power or would it be someone else?

What would ya'll try and see here? And as for other notes, the Ottoman Empire doesn't collapse (though they gotta push reforms once the Pashas are thrown under the bus here)

 

[Suzon]

The only way a “draw” happens that late in the war is if both France and Germany experience widespread revolution simultaneously and that neither gains the upper hand during. If that happens in late 1918 which it very well could with no American involvement, than you’d have a de facto armistice, but I’d imagine they would still be at war and either resume hostilities or they would live on in a north and South Korea type situation.

whether or not Germany evacuates its gains depends on the details of the revolution, but it’s more likely they hold on.

the reason a white peace because both sides are close to collapse won’t work is because post spring 1918 both countries were already close to collapse, and when the German offensive didn’t succeed, they both knew the only way to win was to outlast the other. With no Americans coming France lasting until winter is hard to imagine, and Germany probably could last a bit longer so it ends up lopsided. By some miracle France holds out til the end of Summer and Germany collapses earlier and they collapse simultaneously then yes, I suppose you get your ‘draw’.

but what about the BEF? They are pretty badly weakened at this point but would still be strong enough to attack Germany as it collapses even if France collapsed too. Maybe somehow they go through mutinies as the other two countries revolt.
Only plausible ‘draw’ scenario I can see.
Again, keep in mind that the whole war on the western front was essentially a draw other than the German advances in 1914. If they don’t white peace in 1915 while their countries have some semblance of function, they aren’t going to white piece in a 1918 or 1919 where they’ve turned their countries into beings solely existing for this war. Only a revolution could bring that on.