Suggestions for realistic Russian gains in the Caucasus/Anatolia welcome. I think they will likely want Erzurum, maybe Trebizond, but the latter might be a stretch.
The Great Silent One - Moltke the Austrian TL
- Thread starter Ultima Ratio
- Start date
Maybe expand Russian Armenia too?
Speaking of gains, would they also try and get something from Pérsia and Afghanistan?
Some border adjustments with Persia are I guess feasible, but not sure what they could want from Afghanistan.
Not sure, but British influence in Afghanistan was always shaky, the question is if they can take their place.
Eh...I guess it depends on the Afghans too. The Brits mustve lost a lot of prestige and standing in their eyes after leading them into a fruitless and costly war. But at the same time, do they really wanna replace London with St. Petersburg? And are the Russians willing to go the extra mile and push to add Afghanistan into their sphere?
Maybe have Constantinople become a Co-Dominion between Greece and Bulgaria.
Full passage rights for Russia, Bulgaria, and Romania, however because the eastern shore of the Bosphorus is still in Ottoman hands the same will apply for British and the Ottoman.
The Russian minimal demands would also include a naval base to the south of the Bosphorus (Gökçeada Island). To the horror of the Admiralty but with such a complete collapse and the price the Russians had to pay to capture the enemy Capital they won't take no for an answer. One can also anticipate full basing rights for the British at Sinope Naval Base and the Greeks providing the same on Crete for the Russians.
The Persians & Afghans will revert back into neutral nations. More because with the war over no one will want to expend any effort needed to keep them on their side. Keep in mind that Ottomans and Persians don't play nice together so with the British forced to support the Ottomans they will have to dump the Persians. On the Russian side they are going to have their hands full with the Balkans and the spoils, so they too won't be interested in maintaining a strong presence.
The French & Germans will probably extract a small fee, for allowing the peace to go through. Thinking Acre to France and Vlorë(Albania) to Germany both are minor possessions. Germany will also take some concessions on the Danube transit rights, with the proviso that they will improve the navigability of the river.
p.s. the British must realize that if there is no peace by spring the Russians are going to come south and down from the Caspian mountains like an avalanche. There is no way that the British Army can supply and maintain the million man army at Baku that would be needed as a bare minimum to stimmy the Russian advance.
Full passage rights for Russia, Bulgaria, and Romania, however because the eastern shore of the Bosphorus is still in Ottoman hands the same will apply for British and the Ottoman.
The Russian minimal demands would also include a naval base to the south of the Bosphorus (Gökçeada Island). To the horror of the Admiralty but with such a complete collapse and the price the Russians had to pay to capture the enemy Capital they won't take no for an answer. One can also anticipate full basing rights for the British at Sinope Naval Base and the Greeks providing the same on Crete for the Russians.
The Persians & Afghans will revert back into neutral nations. More because with the war over no one will want to expend any effort needed to keep them on their side. Keep in mind that Ottomans and Persians don't play nice together so with the British forced to support the Ottomans they will have to dump the Persians. On the Russian side they are going to have their hands full with the Balkans and the spoils, so they too won't be interested in maintaining a strong presence.
The French & Germans will probably extract a small fee, for allowing the peace to go through. Thinking Acre to France and Vlorë(Albania) to Germany both are minor possessions. Germany will also take some concessions on the Danube transit rights, with the proviso that they will improve the navigability of the river.
p.s. the British must realize that if there is no peace by spring the Russians are going to come south and down from the Caspian mountains like an avalanche. There is no way that the British Army can supply and maintain the million man army at Baku that would be needed as a bare minimum to stimmy the Russian advance.
Nice ones
Sensible, if a bit hard to believe that all the Ottoman forces would accept it.
Go go, von Ungern-Sternberg! Perhaps you will get a greater khanate, this time...
Which side will be this timeline's North Korea?
This is very interesting, let's see what happens next. A lot of possibilities, not excluding a bloody civil war
The Flagge Honigbienen!Let me know what you think. By the way, the flag in question:
I'm not ashamed to admit that I went with this because it's sexy as hell. I hope the explanation for it is still plausible though.
Sorry guys, didn't have time for an update this week. I'm going for a much needed holiday next week, so I'm afraid the next update will be coming no sooner than next weekend.
read this today and i like it very much (except for the fact that Italy is still divided, but hey, long live the pope, i guess us Romans are happy as it is ITTL)
BTW, how's unser gute Kaiser Franz Joseph? can't wait to see young Karl I of Germany on the throne without Hungary to worry about
BTW, how's unser gute Kaiser Franz Joseph? can't wait to see young Karl I of Germany on the throne without Hungary to worry about
He's had less stressful recent years compared to OTL that's for sure.
still, he's 85, unless he'a an Europa Universalis monarch he can't be immortal, can he?
(plus, how do czechs fare in this german empire? much less agitations than the Italians, from what I read until now)There's some agitation, but the Czechs have been part of the empire much longer and Bohemia is also getting really rich which helps a lot (although the industrialization also brings a lot of Germans). Nationalist movements are in general winding down by the early 20th century. Being part of a big empire is simply a reality that smaller nationalities have come to accept. For the most part, for people like the Czechs a Polish-type autonomy is more of a goal than actual independence.
Makes sense, without the OTL Great War to cripple the European empires and with the continent seemingly more stable than IOTL.
Chapter XVII - Waning Crescent Moon
Chapter XVII - Waning Crescent Moon
(1916)
The Young Turks
While the takeover of power in Ankara by the Young Turks was mostly bloodless, it further destabilized the whole of the empire, with Syria exploding into open rebellion supported by the Russians, swiftly followed by further uprisings in Arab territories in the Palestine and especially in Libya, where the virtual absence of Ottoman troops caused the Porte's control to collapse. The military garrison of Tripoli choosing to surrender to the revolutionaries in return for safe passage from the city into Egypt, which was carried out by a mix of Ottoman and British vessels in the harbor. Fearing for a general Arab uprising in Egypt, British forces planned for a quick campaign to pacify Ottoman Tripolitania, but the situation in Anatolia caused this operation to be delayed. Not long after the change of government in Ankara and the fall of Constantinople, pro-Ottoman elements of the army started to desert en masse, while others refused to follow orders, sometimes leading to exchange of fire between Turkish units along the front. British reports to London warned a general collapse of the whole front, which was evident for the Russians as well. Late February, Yudenich launched a new offensive in strength, the original aim of which was too probe the Anglo-Tuskish lines and achieve a better position, perhaps even exploit a gap if the situation presents itself. The attack was more successful than expected, as the Turkish forces at the outset were already fighting among themselves in and around Erzurum, with British caught in the middle. When the Russians attacked, Turkish lines basically dissolved, leaving Erzurum wide open for attack. British forces instead chose to retreat in order to avoid being encircled, and the city fell soon after. Lord Kitchener reported that the Turks were now on the verge of complete collapse, and could hardly be called a coherent force. He requested for British forces to be recalled from Anatolia, and instead set up new defensive lines in Syria or the Palestine. The plan was solemnly approved slowly after fighting broke out in Ankara itself as order broke down across the country. Yudenich, not having expected such a breakthrough, did not prepare to follow up on the attack, and had to stay in Erzurum to regroup his forced, planning for a new offensive toward Ankara late Spring, using the veteran forces that were on their way to reinforce the front from Europe. Limited offensives also started towards retaking Baku, a line which has so far held, mainly due to the heavy presence of British Indian forces. British high command did expect a large scale attack there in the Summer as well, as soon as the Russian lines were reinforced.
The fall of Erzurum saw pro-Ottoman elements rise up in Ankara. The Ankara uprising was a bloody affair, pushing the Turks to the verge of collapse, only being saved by the arrival of veteran troops from the front under the command of Kemal Atatürk. By the end of March, Ankara was again pacified and the Turkish army was purged from Ottomanist elements, only for them to realize that the military situation was untenable. Britain was retreating to the Levant, getting embroidered in the fighting in Syria and pushing into Palestine from Egypt (using up the forces that were planned to invade Libya). Riots were the order of the day in most major cities, especially ones with large Greek or Armenian populations. The new Republic of Turkey was in a de facto state of civil war. To add insult to injury, the new Arab government in Tripoli declared independence, declaring the Republic of Libya. There wasn't much either Britain or Turkey could do at this point, although an British force was prepared in South Africa to restore order in the region. It was too little too late however, as the French Empire immediately recognized the new state, and the Foreign Legion crossed the border one day later, while the French Navy sailed toward Tripoli, citing concerns for the security of the region. The move caused an uproar in London and caused many to call for war against France. This was however, everyone knew to be unfeasible. While a plan to seize various French holdings around the world by the Royal Navy was proposed, this would mean a wider war across the whole of Africa, something neither the army, nor the general populace was ready for. In fact, the French move was welcomed by some. The pacification of the Arabs prevented any spillover to Egypt, and it was well-known that France did not want Russia to gain too much power in the Middle East, especially in the Levant. In fact, Ankara was willing to let go of Libya, given the catastrophic situation in Anatolia.
British troops in Jerusalem
(1916)
The Young Turks
While the takeover of power in Ankara by the Young Turks was mostly bloodless, it further destabilized the whole of the empire, with Syria exploding into open rebellion supported by the Russians, swiftly followed by further uprisings in Arab territories in the Palestine and especially in Libya, where the virtual absence of Ottoman troops caused the Porte's control to collapse. The military garrison of Tripoli choosing to surrender to the revolutionaries in return for safe passage from the city into Egypt, which was carried out by a mix of Ottoman and British vessels in the harbor. Fearing for a general Arab uprising in Egypt, British forces planned for a quick campaign to pacify Ottoman Tripolitania, but the situation in Anatolia caused this operation to be delayed. Not long after the change of government in Ankara and the fall of Constantinople, pro-Ottoman elements of the army started to desert en masse, while others refused to follow orders, sometimes leading to exchange of fire between Turkish units along the front. British reports to London warned a general collapse of the whole front, which was evident for the Russians as well. Late February, Yudenich launched a new offensive in strength, the original aim of which was too probe the Anglo-Tuskish lines and achieve a better position, perhaps even exploit a gap if the situation presents itself. The attack was more successful than expected, as the Turkish forces at the outset were already fighting among themselves in and around Erzurum, with British caught in the middle. When the Russians attacked, Turkish lines basically dissolved, leaving Erzurum wide open for attack. British forces instead chose to retreat in order to avoid being encircled, and the city fell soon after. Lord Kitchener reported that the Turks were now on the verge of complete collapse, and could hardly be called a coherent force. He requested for British forces to be recalled from Anatolia, and instead set up new defensive lines in Syria or the Palestine. The plan was solemnly approved slowly after fighting broke out in Ankara itself as order broke down across the country. Yudenich, not having expected such a breakthrough, did not prepare to follow up on the attack, and had to stay in Erzurum to regroup his forced, planning for a new offensive toward Ankara late Spring, using the veteran forces that were on their way to reinforce the front from Europe. Limited offensives also started towards retaking Baku, a line which has so far held, mainly due to the heavy presence of British Indian forces. British high command did expect a large scale attack there in the Summer as well, as soon as the Russian lines were reinforced.
The fall of Erzurum saw pro-Ottoman elements rise up in Ankara. The Ankara uprising was a bloody affair, pushing the Turks to the verge of collapse, only being saved by the arrival of veteran troops from the front under the command of Kemal Atatürk. By the end of March, Ankara was again pacified and the Turkish army was purged from Ottomanist elements, only for them to realize that the military situation was untenable. Britain was retreating to the Levant, getting embroidered in the fighting in Syria and pushing into Palestine from Egypt (using up the forces that were planned to invade Libya). Riots were the order of the day in most major cities, especially ones with large Greek or Armenian populations. The new Republic of Turkey was in a de facto state of civil war. To add insult to injury, the new Arab government in Tripoli declared independence, declaring the Republic of Libya. There wasn't much either Britain or Turkey could do at this point, although an British force was prepared in South Africa to restore order in the region. It was too little too late however, as the French Empire immediately recognized the new state, and the Foreign Legion crossed the border one day later, while the French Navy sailed toward Tripoli, citing concerns for the security of the region. The move caused an uproar in London and caused many to call for war against France. This was however, everyone knew to be unfeasible. While a plan to seize various French holdings around the world by the Royal Navy was proposed, this would mean a wider war across the whole of Africa, something neither the army, nor the general populace was ready for. In fact, the French move was welcomed by some. The pacification of the Arabs prevented any spillover to Egypt, and it was well-known that France did not want Russia to gain too much power in the Middle East, especially in the Levant. In fact, Ankara was willing to let go of Libya, given the catastrophic situation in Anatolia.
British troops in Jerusalem
On the 10th of April, the Republic of Turkey approached both Germany and France, and requested mediation and a general armistice on all fronts. This was clandestinely supported by Britain, as neither France nor Germany would accept Russia gaining too much. The war was of course an embarrassment unlike anything for centuries for Britain, but a Franco-German mediation in the face of a lingering Turkish civil war could be better sold on the home front. On the 15th of April, Turkey, Russia, the Balkan states and Persia issued an armistice, followed two days later by Japan and China. The Eurasian War was over.
The Republic of Turkey, fearing a prolonged civil war, also accepted the presence of Continental Congress troops to maintain peace in certain areas during the armistice. This was embarrassing, but it was preferable to just letting the Russians occupy all of Anatolia. Violence against Greeks, Armenians and other nationalities was now rampant, along with deserted soldiers preying on the countryside and Arab rebellions. In the middle of May, German troops under General Paul von Lettow-Vorbeck arrived in Smyrna, creating a pacified zone, while also providing camps for various refugees around the city (mostly Greeks). Similarly, a French force arrived in Trebizond, supported by a Spanish contingent. Not much later, Albania declared independence, with the remaining Turkish troops in the country mostly defecting to the new government. The government, in fear of a Serbian-Greek invasion also asked for the presence of Congress troops, which materialized in a German-Hungarian contingent being dispatched.
Germans in Smyrna
The peace conference was to be held in the exhibition room of the famous porcelain factory in Sévres, near Paris, starting July 20th. The signatories were on one side: the Russian Empire, Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, the Republic of China. And from the other side: the United Kingdom and her dependencies, the Republic of Turkey, Persia, Albania and the Japanese Empire. Observers were the Empire of France, the German Empire, Spain, Hungary, the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies and Tuscany.
The terms were as follows:
- Bulgaria and Serbia split the region known as Vardar Macedonia
- Albanian independence is recognized by all parties
- Greece gains Thrace and Macedonia up to and including Adrianople as well as Constantinople, the rest being annexed by Bulgaria
- Britain and Turkey evacuate all Aegean Islands, returning them to Greece
- Cretan independence is recognized, the island is evacuated by Turkish troops
- The Russian Empire annexes Trebizond, Erzurum and Van, including the surrounding region into a new Greater Armenian Autonomous Oblast
- Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey agree to population exchanges
- Baku is evacuated, British-Persian troops retreat to original borders
- Syria remains under Turkish control
- British protectorate of the Palestine is recognized
- Japan renounces all claims in Manchuria and the Russian Far East, in turn Russia agrees to sell Northern Sakhalin to the Japanese Empire
- Japan retains control of Korea, while Chinese control over Manchuria is recognized, China in turn leases Port Arthur to Russia. The Yalu is recognized as the border, along with the Tumen and the Paektu Mountain
Treaty of Sévres
The Treaty of Sévres was a ground-shaking event, that effectively ended the Ottoman Empire and restored Constantinople to Greek control. Soon after, population exchanges started, moving the Greeks of Smyrna to Thrace and in turn moving Turks and other Muslims (mainly Bosnians and converted Bulgarians) to Anatolia. While the exchange is today remembered as a terrible event for most of those involved, it is widely believed that along with the presence of Congress troops, it helped prevent an even greater catastrophe, even a possible genocide. Crete soon held a plebiscite, voting almost unanimously to join Greece. Armenians also moved to the new autonomous Russian Oblast in great numbers, while Turks were promptly expelled. While it was likely the worst humanitarian event in the 20th century, German and French aid narrowly prevented widespread starvation in the regions, while the Turkish army slowly regained control of Anatolia. They did not have much luck in Syria, and were thrown back after three half-hearted offensives into the region. The conflict eventually ended when Turkey formally recognized the independence of Syria and a small Kurdistan. Syria could not enjoy independence for too long however, as it civil war soon broke out in the country, which was ended by a Franco-German intervention in early 1917, splitting the region into a French and a German protectorate. Kurdistan also quickly came into conflict with Persia, as they feared their own large Kurdish population to rise up in rebellion to join the new state. The Persians did mobilize in December 1916, but were recalled when Russia declared Kurdistan to be under their protection. A large exodus started as Kurds from nearby states flooded into the new state, setting it up to be the wealthy and prosperous country we know it today.
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Here we are, back on track after a long vacation period. Let me know what you think, if anything is way too far off, I'm totally open to suggestions.
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Germany never participated and is doing well, so a hitler style figure is unlikely. Same for Russia, who won pretty decisively. Former Ottoman Empire is most likely too weak to pull a nazi german style takeover of the region, although a dictator is quite likely. Britain lost but her territory suffered little, although people will be angry over all the lives and money thrown away for nothing. The way I see it, the most likely next conflict between major powers would be Britain and France because their spheres of influence clash frequently and Britain will be worried about another opportunistic takeover of territory by France.