A lot to unpack and a lot of myths to destroy.
In 1925, Hector Bywater wrote the Great Pacific War, in it he has Japan and the US fight in 1931.
Note the year, 1931? None of the Great Powers have naval aviation worth a sack full of brown goo. The Japanese have Hosho and the Americans have Langley. The Kaga and Akagi are 4 years old. Lexington and Saratoga ditto.
Any idea what was being flown?
IJN
Nakajima A1N
Nakajima A2N
Mitsubishi 1MF
Mitsubishi 1MT
Mitsubishi B1M
IJA
Nakajima Army Type 91 Fighter
Kawasaki Army Type 92 Model 1 Fighter
Not bad, but comparatively speaking, ineffectual until we see the 1938 revolution in aero-engines into the 750 + kWatt class.
The Americans?
BM - Martin
F6C Hawk - Curtiss
F7C Seahawk - Curtiss
F8C Falcon/Helldiver - Curtiss
F9C Sparrowhawk - Curtiss
and of course
PH - Hall
There were the Martin T1-T3 torpedo plane series and, well you know? None of these planes had a ship killing punch. Not one for either the IJN or the USN. So it comes down to gun and torpedo and the ship based launch platforms for those two weapons. The planes could scout and harass, but that is about it. Why do I have heartburn about it? 1931, the IJN has a 2 m/s speed advantage uniform across its fleet. They have the option of accept/.refuse battle and the "weather gauge". Plus they are the attackers. That is a tactical no-no in naval warfare.
Both sides fight amazingly well but it ends with a US victory (one the Japanese were on the cusp of winning). As a result Japan's fleet and armies are in shambles due to a unified China taking over Manchuria, the US on the verge of an economic depression (although that may be the Great Depression starting), Europe heavily benefiting from the war, and poison gas being thrown about like candy.
The US will be in the midst of rampaging inflation, with a full blown naval armaments program in progress. No slump, rather a superheated economy that will take some cooling off.
What would be some possible aftermaths of this affair?
I'll come to it in a moment.
Military wise, I'd think the carriers roles would be realized and the sea going nations would build them up as they did quite well (including gassing an entire cruiser) Second is the importance of good airfields and aircraft being recognized as the US nearly defeated the invasion of the Philippines with a small number of aircraft (if they had 100 or so, the invasion would've been defeated). The importance of submarines and defending against them would become paramount as the Japanese waged a Marvelous sub campaign on the US (one sub nearly got a shot at the battlefleet). And more importantly, hanging on to obsolete ships is just asking for trouble given what happens to the Asiatic squadron (entire group destroyed, 1 japanese destroyer fell to them).
First of all, as the Italians soon demonstrated in their wargames, if you gas seal your gun-houses and run at flank, poison gas at sea is USELESS. You simply blow through it. Kinetics is the only certain ship killer. The USN intended to use Mustard to mission kill IJA and IJN island garrison airfields. The IJN intended to return the favor. This was soon demonstrated not to work, either. One good rain and you were back in business. You could not guarantee a knocked out airfield except by putting your own troops on it. Sound familiar? And if Joe Infantry holds the runway, then you are going to fly from that base. I.E. Guadalcanal with 1931 biplanes little better than 1921 biplanes.
Bywater is clueless about sub warfare as are the IJN. USN by 1929 was very interested in sinking freighters. They just pretended not to allow it. Sort of like city killing for the army air corps. Not allowed, but it was understood the Keystones were gonna bomb civilians if Orange kicked off.
Socially, the Japanese would be seen as a sort of Asian British Empire as they fought honorably and gallantly (the navy that is)
The Japanese in the first Sino-Japanese War machine gunned enemy sailors in the water. The Americans massacred Koreans in an island clearing campaign a decade earlier in 1884. Let us not kid ourselves. The Spanish American War may have seemed "chivalrous" but the Americans used ammunition designed to cause fires on enemy warships and they kept shooting at the Spaniards long after another navy would have seen the Spaniards were beaten and done. So... it is a "Maybe" as to hard the war would be fought. Both nations tended to not half step when they were up against a "real" opponent. My prediction is very ugly very soon. California shenanigans and Japanese shoving Americans around in China, the specter of bigotry is very real as an inflammatory agency to the quality of total war.
Do you guys agree with this assessment?
No.
1. Battleships still remain the arm of decision.
2. Air scouting will be terrible, so it will be more like Jutland with cruisers playing tag and a lot less like Midway.
3. Unrestricted submarine warfare will be the American forte, but it will take a while (2 years) for the sub drivers to figure it out.
4. American gunnery is terrible. Japanese gunnery is equally mediocre. The shooting will come down to short ranges where the Americans have the armor advantage, but the Japanese CAN DICTATE because of their speed edge.
5. Torpedoes for both navies are a joke. It is 1931, remember?
6. The Japanese field army is much better trained and equipped than the American one at the start. Murphy help the Americans if the IJA get a lodgement in the Philippine Islands.
7. The Americans will win, if they have the stomach for it. Longer war than the 1941-1945 horror show, because the Americans will have to build faster ships without the 2 year lead, more ships, work out their gunnery and torpedo problems and create a new army to replace the one the IJA destroyed. STEEP learning curve.
BTW, I still hate the 1927 SoDaks.
Might see something like this instead.
cited from My Starship.com
That's my opinion. Remember, it is not gospel. YMMV and IT SHOULD.