The Great Mistake - a Winter War escalates TL

Eurofed

Banned
Some minor considerations:

ITTL there won't be any UN-like worldwide international organization, at the very most only the most apolitical and technical ones like the International Bureau of Weights and Measures.

Even many pre-WWII international organizations are likely going to become split into Oceanian and Eurasian units, most interestingly included the Catholic Church. After Pius XII dies, it is quite likely going to become split into a "collaborationist" Eurasian Church, staying in Rome, and a "free" Oceanian Church, setting up shop somewhere in South America.

OTOH, existing blocs, while they have some UN-like features (such as UNSC-like all-powerful directories), in practice they look like a much more effective and integrated EU-NATO combo (or for Eurasia, WPACT/COMECON would be a more apt comparison, although ITTL there is a codominium and not a sole hegemon at the top, and Italy/France are important sidekicks and not insignificant satellites).
 
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solidpontus

Hitler never got to "deal with Stalin later" as he intended, and now his Reich is married to Russia. Poor man must be rolling in his grave...:D
 

MerryPrankster

America's slide towards semi-fascism stopped by Nixon of all people. Cool.

Whither Rhodesia in TTL? With a grasping, authoritarian Britain, the settlers might not revolt against decolonization per OTL. However, they might revolt against the increasing authoritarian government doing things that Just Aren't Not Done.

How free is Switzerland domestically? If it retains its democratic character, the other Eurasian powers use it as a dumping ground for their dissidents after awhile.
 

Eurofed

Banned
MerryPrankster said:
How free is Switzerland domestically? If it retains its democratic character, the other Eurasian powers use it as a dumping ground for their dissidents after awhile.
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Even more importantly, they may use it as a useful neutral meeting ground with Oceania, intelligence nexus, and a financial haven for the most questionable dealings of their elites. If the Swiss are quick and efficient to promote their financial haven services to the Eurasian bigwigs, they can earn a remarkable degree of protection. Judging how good they were at this during OTL WWII and the Cold War for the Nazis and the Soviet bloc, I think Switzerland is fairly safe ITTL.
 
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Dialga

Banned
Onkel Willie said:
I am trying to create the basic geography, yes, but not the regimes since that would be impossible. We have only one such 'perfect dictatorship' and that is North Korea which grew due to specific circumstances.
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So, what was so ASB about Orwell's regimes? And who's to say NK won't land in the ash-heap of history like all the rest? (But I digress.)
 

Onkel Willie

Alrighty then, last update :D. Enjoy ;).


Btw, can anybody make that map of the world as it is now, based on my post earlier with territorial changes and this update?



Chapter X: A World Divided and United, 1984 – 2010. ​


The Cold War continued while in both Germany and the Soviet Union, the last remnants of the old guard died off during the 1980s. Vyacheslav Molotov, foreign commissar during the reign of Joseph Stalin, died in 1986 at the age of 96. By now, Heydrich was also aging rapidly with his 82 years of age although he maintained his fitness due to a strict diet as well as remaining active physically. He had always had quite an athletic appearance and his blond hair and blue eyes made him the perfect Aryan, Hitler’s ideal. His blond hair had turned white by now and even this powerful and ruthless dictator couldn’t escape time. He died in 1988 at the ripe old age of 84 years, making him the last of the old guard of the Nazi party to die as Goebbels had died in 1982 at 85 years of age after having spent the last few years of his life in retirement and doing some party work and speaking for Nazi charity funds. After a brief power struggle, Heydrich was succeeded by Goebbels’s son Helmut who had achieved a position of power over the years thanks to his father who had assured that he was given access to all the right people and high positions. He also had his mother to thank who had privately tutored him for years, ensuring he performed excellently in school which further ensured a wonderfully easy career, more so since his father had told him everything he knew about politics including the maxim that Nazi politics were dangerous with everyone backstabbing the other at the earliest opportunity. Helmut Goebbels was 53 years old at the time of his succession which gave him enough life experience. By now, the Nazi party was clearly becoming divided into three factions which vied for power and the support of the new leader. The first and foremost were the Wilhelmine Imperialists who traced their origins back to Goering. These leaned on the nationalist-conservative elites, the Junkers, the aristocracy and the industrial bourgeoisie. The second were the old hardcore racist faction which upheld racial purity and Aryan dominance above all and condemned the alliance with the Soviet Union which was completely against the wishes of Hitler, but they were outnumbered by far. The third and last faction filled the middle ground between these two groups and consisted mostly of ‘regular’ fascists who supported the teachings of Mussolini which emphasized strong leadership by one man, nationalism, militarism and was opposed to democracy and liberalism in all its forms. Heydrich had managed to play them off and keep the reins of power in his hands and now the question was whether or not his successor was able enough to keep on doing this.

In the USSR, a short period with a quick succession of leaders had followed the death of Kosygin as a power struggle ensued. There were two factions here namely the neo-Stalinists led by Mikhail Suslov and the more liberal faction led by Kosygin’s apprentice Gorbachev. The former still opposed the alliance with fascist western Europe as well as the liberalizations in their country which strict ideologists like Suslov saw as a deviation from true socialism like Lenin and Stalin had meant it to be. They were major critics of the reform movement led by Kosygin and Gorbachev who they called social fascists. The neo-Stalinists fell apart more or less in the years following the death of Suslov in 1982 as a struggle for leadership erupted within their faction while Gorbachev managed to consolidate his position by the mid 1980s. He continued with the economic reforms although he stopped the trend of democratization started by Khrushchev and followed by Kosygin as he deemed this structure too prone to internal conflict. He concentrated more power in his own hands and laid down a structure to take care of the succession system for when he himself died by means of a voting committee formed out of random members of the central committee of the party elected by means of a computer generated list as computers were a new and reliable system, unbiased and incorruptible. The Soviet Union’s economy had seen much liberalisation, but certain key sectors such as oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear energy, infrastructure, mining, heavy industry, arms industry and the aerospace industry all remained in state hands and were being coordinated increasingly by more and more advanced computer systems designed and built in Germany by young, innovative electro technical engineers, software programmers and other technicians. Computers allowed for a greater deal of efficiency in the Soviet Union’s economy which was still for a third state planned. The Soviet Union proved that there could be exceptions to the rule that tyrannies cannot perpetuate themselves which would have meant that Nazi Germany, China and the USSR should have fallen apart after the original dictators had died; they didn’t. Germany the USSR and China had managed to last for much, much longer and were still going strong.

The Space Race continued in all its heavy competition to be first and the best. In 1986, a Soviet-German manned mission was launched to Mars a little over twenty years after their first manned mission to the moon. The lunar bases were expanded to accommodate more people and more advanced equipment. Now, Italian and French teams of astronauts were also allowed to go up as well while the Americans sent Japanese, Brazilian, Indian and British astronauts to accompany their own teams (although India sent astronauts up independently as well). By the mid 1990s, both power blocks had established permanently manned bases on Mars to reveal the red planet’s secrets and conduct more experiments to see whether or not Mars could be made suitable for human settlement in the long term. This included trying to grow plants in Martian soil with the same amount of light and water they would normally get on Earth. Both bases were nuclear powered as the solar panels provided barely enough electricity to keep the life support systems going due to the greater distance from the sun compared to Earth which made sure that less of the sun’s rays got to the red planet. The teams already knew of supplies of fresh water in the form of icecaps on the north and south poles of Mars which meant that they didn’t need to be resupplied as often as those on the moon (although the moon was less of a problem, logistically speaking). The increased and more advanced hydroponics bays on the Martian bases also meant that they could grow at least part of their food themselves. In the meantime, experiments continued to find out whether or not there had been life once. Mars was dead with a very thin atmosphere and a weak to nonexistent magnetic field to ward off the sun’s radiation unlike Earth, but the presence of fresh water made life possible since Earth had its own share of ‘extremofiles’, organisms that live in extreme conditions of which many think that they would make life impossible. Both teams came to the conclusion that there might have been life on Mars, even if it was bacteriological, but that it had been extinct since before life had developed on Earth. At the same time, Jupiter’s moon Europa seemed much more promising since the general consensus was that there were oceans under the icy surface. A relatively late addition to the Space Race was China where Deng Xiaoping was the only one of the original ruling triumvirate still alive. He wanted a space program to fit China’s status as a great power. China was the dominant power in Asia with the world’s largest army equipped with advanced weapons (if behind on the Eurasian and Oceanian armed forces), the fourth largest economy in the world after the US, the USSR and Germany and the beginnings of a war fleet. China had built its first aircraft carrier in the late 1980s, large missile cruisers and had a nuclear submarine force with SLBMs, giving China a blue water fleet. The first ‘taikonaut’ went up in 1997 to circle the Earth three times before landing safely in the Yellow Sea. A manned mission to the moon took place in 2004 and Beijing announced lunar bases to be built by 2025.

China was growing in its own right although they were still leagues behind on the Eurasian Alliance and the Oceanian Pact. These two blocks constantly held the threat of ‘Mutually Assured Destruction’ in place while also being strong economic and political forces. Both could destroy China and its East Asian Combine completely if they wanted to although that didn’t happen. Due to clever political manoeuvring, Beijing managed to play off the other two more powerful alliances against each other, avoiding any kind of reconciliation between the two titans to form a unified block against China. Due to ideological differences that wasn’t about to happen anyway, making the Cold War a tripolar one. While the nuclear standoff or armed peace between Eurasia and Oceania continued, Beijing was rather pleased with itself since in any war, its major competitors would destroy each other so China could dominate the whole of the Earth. By the end of the twentieth century, Eurasia and Oceania possessed tens of thousands of nuclear weapons. With only 500 nuclear warheads and a limited number of ICMBs, China was in a completely different league. Militarily, a war with China was considered child’s play, but the loss of China to nuclear fire from the heavens would simultaneously lead to a worldwide economic collapse since all the goodies that China produced wouldn’t end up in supermarkets all over the world anymore. This affluence provided Beijing stabilized the communist regime itself as well which led to the East Asian Combine being the nicest of the three, rarely using its military muscle which would upset the EAC’s stability. In fact, the Tiananmen Square Incident was the first time the Chinese used their military as they had no choice. These ‘radicals’ were easily dispersed by a little force on the part of the People’s Liberation Army. There was little support for this student protest which wanted dissidents to be released, democracy and freedom of speech. The Chinese people were generally to rich to care about democracy. The strengthening economic relations between the superpowers was the trend of globalization in full glory. Economies got linked more and more and this trend seemed to stave off nuclear holocaust further and further although the leaderships in Moscow, Berlin, Beijing and Washington seemed to catch up a little later as usual.

The fascist powers tried to cling on to their colonial empires throughout the 1980s. Italy resorted to brutal matters approved by the Grand Council of Fascists which had taken power by putting only weak, uncharismatic and powerless figures in the position of Duce of Italy. Chemical weapons, carpet bombing and mass deportations to concentration camps in the desert were deemed acceptable solutions. This was being toned down by the 1980s since Italian colonists had all but overwhelmed the Libyans and Tunisians demographically. Iraq, Egypt and Transjordan had only reluctantly been given independence in the form of a more tighter bound version of what Britain had with its dominions. Foreign affairs and defence remained in hands of Rome. Libya and Tunisia had a majority Italian population by the 1980s and therefore weren’t so lucky and so Mussolini’s Fourth Shore had finally been achieved. Italian East Africa had gold and diamond deposits and Rome was very resistant to let this colony go as well and therefore expelled many of its restive natives into independent Sudan, adding to the chaos of civil war. The French were less determined and had a much larger colonial empire to maintain than Italy had. They had flooded Algeria with settlers as well, but had only gained a French majority population in coastal Algeria which was considered part of metropolitan France. By the 1980s, the French army had suffered a number of major defeats against the guerrilla forces in the inlands of Algeria. America, despite being a freedom loving democracy, supported a colonial power of its own, more than one actually. They supported Britain against Rhodesia which had declared its independence in the face of increasing British authoritarianism. They had a white minority rule, but the blacks were so sickened with London that they would rather put up with a democratic if racially biased government than the oppressive British. It would take until the 80s before Rhodesia became independent and Angola and Mozambique would have to wait even longer as Washington funded the Estado Novo to defeat the communist guerrillas supported by Moscow. It had been decided that the USSR would carry this sensitive burden since fascism and even watered down Nazism were rather alien to black nationalist independence movements. These areas wouldn’t be ‘pacified’ until the early 1990s.

The 2000s would see a relative détente between the great powers and even talks on arms reduction. The Eurasian Alliance had 50.000 nuclear warheads and the Oceanian Pact 35.000 as of 2001. The world was divided through ideology and united through economy and the human drive to improve and excel. The twentieth century ended and looking back, some might consider it a dystopia. True, even the world’s democracies had slipped into authoritarianism and Europe and Asia were being ruled by ruthless totalitarian dictatorships, but humanity was more affluent than ever and the environment of the planet was also being taken into consideration more and more, especially in the United States following policies started by the now venerated and legendary president Nixon who had deceased in 1994. Stalin, Hitler and Mussolini were long dead and the world was as good as it was ever going to get after the Second World War (1939-1948) which had managed to kill 80 million people. The world was at peace and would remain that way or so it seemed.
 

MerryPrankster

You describe humanity being at peace and the world united, but I don't recall any mention of detente.

I thought we'd get a Protracted Struggle extending throughout the solar system and other than moon buggies coming perilously close to each other, I don't recall any violence, uber-weapons in space, etc.
 

Onkel Willie

MerryPrankster said:
You describe humanity being at peace and the world united, but I don't recall any mention of detente.

I thought we'd get a Protracted Struggle extending throughout the solar system and other than moon buggies coming perilously close to each other, I don't recall any violence, uber-weapons in space, etc.
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Détente is only a relative thing you know. The US and the USSR had a 'détente' during the sixties, but that didn't end the Cold War. In this world, the tripolar Cold War continues and will to a degree for the foreseeable future.

Also, I did think I mentioned orbital weapons platforms with nukes somewhere in one of the updates. The three power blocks, despite being less tense, will keep struggling for dominance of course. The threat of nuclear holocaust is smaller, but not gone and certainly a lot bigger than IOTL's 2010.

EDIT: Did you think it was a bad ending? I wanted to be a tiny bit optimist after all TTL's gloom and doom. Now how about a map for this thread.
 

giobastia

Mmmmh, I think this TL is too optimistic. Don’t equivocate: your alternative WW2 is the most gory thing I saw since now. But it’s very strange a so peaceful following cold war.
Just three observations:
1. In OTL cold war never turned hot only because of nuclear deterrent. It was only a psychological factor, due to the surrender of Japan immediately after the first two nuclear bombings. In this ATL atomic bombs on Japan, Russia and Germany didn’t resolve the conflict, nor change its course. After a war like that, governments cannot consider nuclear weapons, even more powerful thermonuclear weapons (and WMD) as a deterrent. In your scenario, I see that a new global nuclear war between Oceania and Eurasia is quite inevitable in the late ‘50s just after the first recovery of armed forces. It could continue until the complete destruction of the enemy. Or it could continue intermittently for decades, like in Orwell’s “1984”.
2. Economy: Soviet bloc was very poor because planned economy proved inefficient. In this ATL we have a global domination of three regimes (Nazi, Soviet and Oceania) with planned economy. And once you have nationalized all your industries and lands (for military purposes), it’s very difficult to reverse this system: Oceania and Eurasia will become more and more planned, more and more totalitarian. In those circumstances foreign exchanges are impossible.
3. Resources: after a destructive decade of conventional, nuclear and chemical war, human resources, more than natural resources, become very rare and sick. You’ll have a very poor, desperate and unproductive humanity in the ‘50s, as we can see in all post-totalitarian regimes nowadays. I see new Middle Ages rising up, with famine, pandemic diseases and violence all over the World. In 2010, now, we could live in a much more little and poor humanity, with a minor life expectancy and few chances of individual achievement.
4. Democides: I think you underestimate the number of victims. In OTL WW2, 35 million people died in battle, but Nazi regime exterminated 21 million people (6 million Jews included), Soviet regime exterminated 13 million of its own citizens. You make Hitler die before the Final Solution and Operation Barbarossa never happens. Does it change something? I think no: complete extermination of Jews, along with the submission and enslavement of “inferior races”, were priorities of the Nazi regime. The extermination of Jews, Roma, gay and other “subhumans” began in 1938. In Soviet Union, the elimination of “enemy classes” and the complete deportation of “enemy” peoples was already a primary target of those regime. I don’t even want to imagine what the hell can do the Nazis in Africa and Middle East. I don’t even want to imagine what the hell can do the Soviets in China and vast territories of Southern Asia.
 

Wyragen-TXRG4P

Banned
giobastia said:
Mmmmh, I think this TL is too optimistic. Don’t equivocate: your alternative WW2 is the most gory thing I saw since now. But it’s very strange a so peaceful following cold war.
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That is simple, IOTL it was considered possible to win a war against the soviet-union using nuclear weapons, then conventional warfare.
In this scenario, it became clear that total victory was night impossible. Attempted expansion by both sides would gain remarquably little.

giobastia said:
Soviet regime exterminated 13 million of its own citizens.
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Nope, because in that case the CCCP would simply have collapsed right after operation Barbarossa, just as Hitler thought. Russian empire faced a revolution for far less over a much expanded period.
In Finland, the manpower shortage caused by the winter war, proportionally far less than your mentionned number, was felt long after WW2.
 
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Onkel Willie

1. In OTL cold war never turned hot only because of nuclear deterrent. It was only a psychological factor, due to the surrender of Japan immediately after the first two nuclear bombings. In this ATL atomic bombs on Japan, Russia and Germany didn’t resolve the conflict, nor change its course. After a war like that, governments cannot consider nuclear weapons, even more powerful thermonuclear weapons (and WMD) as a deterrent. In your scenario, I see that a new global nuclear war between Oceania and Eurasia is quite inevitable in the late ‘50s just after the first recovery of armed forces. It could continue until the complete destruction of the enemy. Or it could continue intermittently for decades, like in Orwell’s “1984”.
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You could reason the other way around after this nuclear war. All leaders have witnessed the destructive capabilities of nuclear weapons and might therefore be more reluctant to use them as they fully understand what devastation these weapons can cause. Germany, Britain, France, the USSR and Japan have experienced the destruction of multiple cities and won't want more of that. Similarly, the US suffered from several attacks with nerve agents by missile. The incredible death tolls of WW II and the post-war consequences like radiation sickness and the like could serve as a deterrent.

2. Economy: Soviet bloc was very poor because planned economy proved inefficient. In this ATL we have a global domination of three regimes (Nazi, Soviet and Oceania) with planned economy. And once you have nationalized all your industries and lands (for military purposes), it’s very difficult to reverse this system: Oceania and Eurasia will become more and more planned, more and more totalitarian. In those circumstances foreign exchanges are impossible.
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Well, Nazi Germany only had a partially planned economy IOTL for war industry. The Nazis allowed for businesses and private property to exist. They could influence the Soviet Union in this way. Also, the reform movement in the USSR existed IOTL, but after Khrushchev was sacked, Brezhnev took over and turned all the reforms back which led to stagnation and eventually collapse. Butterflies lead to Khrushchev staying in charge and being succeeded by competent people. As for Germany, Heydrich might have been cruel and oppressive, but he was also quite pragmatic when compared to other hardcore Nazis like Hitler and Himmler.


3. Resources: after a destructive decade of conventional, nuclear and chemical war, human resources, more than natural resources, become very rare and sick. You’ll have a very poor, desperate and unproductive humanity in the ‘50s, as we can see in all post-totalitarian regimes nowadays. I see new Middle Ages rising up, with famine, pandemic diseases and violence all over the World. In 2010, now, we could live in a much more little and poor humanity, with a minor life expectancy and few chances of individual achievement.
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For Japan, this might be true I suppose. They were all but levelled, but also received a lot of US support post-war as did Britain. Germany had seven cities destroyed IIRC which leaves many more. The agricultural areas in eastern Prussia and in occupied Poland haven't been touched, more so since Goering would be a more 'conventional' dictator than Hitler was. He would oppress the Poles and try to Germanize them, but I doubt he'd exterminate them all. He was more of the Wilhelmine Imperialist faction.

Also look at the economic miracle Germany had in the 50s. Germany had been levelled in OTL's WW II, but still recovered remarkably. Granted, West Germany got Marshall Aid, but this Germany can get help from the Soviet Union. The USSR has barely been touched ITTL. 'Only' two cities nuked and no battles whatsoever fought on its territory unlike during OTL's Barbarossa which devastated the Soviet economy and killed 20 million people, not in part due to horrible war crimes by the Germans and also Stalin's own mistakes. Here he had time to reform his army and do quite good. Germany might not be in great shape, but their Soviet allies can help. Also, Germany has not been occupied ITTL and the Allies haven't tried to strip her from her warmaking industries.

Also, IOTL Hiroshima and Nagasaki were rebuilt quite quickly. This won't happen in Japan ITTL since so many nukes were used on them. Germany and the USSR, however, have more industry and resources to work with. The countries that will have suffered the most from loss of human resources are probably China and Japan. The Middle East will probably also have suffered a great deal under Axis occupation in terms of human resources, but eventually resistance will die down. It did in the Baltic states although it took until the 1960s for that to happen. Ideas can die as can religions with enough 'persuasion' by the NKVD and SS/Gestapo. I know Stalin and his successors managed to decrease the number of religious people.

4. Democides: I think you underestimate the number of victims. In OTL WW2, 35 million people died in battle, but Nazi regime exterminated 21 million people (6 million Jews included), Soviet regime exterminated 13 million of its own citizens. You make Hitler die before the Final Solution and Operation Barbarossa never happens. Does it change something? I think no: complete extermination of Jews, along with the submission and enslavement of “inferior races”, were priorities of the Nazi regime. The extermination of Jews, Roma, gay and other “subhumans” began in 1938. In Soviet Union, the elimination of “enemy classes” and the complete deportation of “enemy” peoples was already a primary target of those regime. I don’t even want to imagine what the hell can do the Nazis in Africa and Middle East. I don’t even want to imagine what the hell can do the Soviets in China and vast territories of Southern Asia.
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80 million, an underestimation? OTL's WW2 killed 55 million so I thought 80 million would be a fair estimate. I think the deaths of Hitler and Himmler do change things since Goering was more pragmatic (Wilhelmine Imperialist). He wanted more achievable goals like German dominance in Europe and perhaps restoration of the colonies if possible.

Also remember his (in)famous saying "I decide who is a Jew".
 
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