Planning for 1921 campaigns
Despite the unexpected revolution and eventual occupation of Bavaria, Soviet forces were in a situation of stalemate in the beginning of 1921. They had not enough reserves for a forward offensive in the West. In Germany (despite the bold advance in Bavaria) they were facing stronger and stronger French-British forces along the Elbe front. In Austria they were stopped by the Alps, which were hard to cross in Winter. A new advance, there, could be impossible until June. It was also impossible a bold advance in Italy, because of the full mobilization of the Italian army, completed in January 1921. The only available strategy for the Spring 1921 campaign was an offensive in the Balkans (Bulgaria, Makedonia and Greece) and the elimination of the pockets of resistance behind the Red lines: the Rumanian “Transylvanian Redoubt” and the White army salient in Ukraine.
On the German front, Soviet generals, along with the assistance of Ludendorff, adopted a strategy of “Stand and Subvert”: defend the Elbe line, while fomenting subversion behind the “imperialist” lines. Ludendorff prepared a scheme of defense in depth along the Red’s lines. The offensive could be resumed only after the recruitment and training of all the available reserves in East Germany (Gssr), Poland, Slovakia, Hungary. An all-over assault could be possible also in case of revolution in West Germany.
On the Italian front the subversive factors were much stronger than those in Germany. The National-Communist alliance in Fiume, provided a broader support for a revolution behind the Italian lines. But the balance of military forces prevented any offensive action against Italy before the full mobilization of Rumanian and Yugoslav new Red armies. General Frunze took the control of all the Southern Front, a long arch stretched between the Istrian Peninsula and the Danube’s estuary. He disposed a defense in depth on the Italian-Dalmatian sector, an offensive in the Balkan sector and against the Transylvanian Redoubt.
The Northern Front, assigned to general Voroshilov, planned an invasion of Finland, in order to complete the conquest of Baltic coast and create a buffer-state West of Petrograd. The Second Southern Front had to attack and dismantle general Wrangel’s White Army in Ukraine as soon as possible.
What were the Allied plans? French and British expeditionary corps in Germany were strong enough to contain the Soviet offensive on the Elbe and in the Alps. The loss of Bavaria was impressive (because of the loss of Munich) but it had no military effects. It contributed to change the political attitude of the Allied governments about the rearmament of Germany, indeed. The Millerand government fell in February 1921 and was replaced by a government of National Unity led by the Socialist Aristide Briand (the prime minister of Verdun), much less hostile to Germany. After the formation of the new French government, both Great Britain and France supported the formation of a new German Army, 500.000 men strong, with new tanks (Ft-17 provided by France or produced under license in Germany) and aircrafts (produced by Germans). The plan for the new German Army was intended to make the defensive and counter-offensive capability of the Weimar Republic ready for the Summer-Autumn 1921. The command of the new army was kept by von Seeckt, commander in chief of the Reichsweer.
The Supreme Allied Council at Spa, under the command of general Ferdinand Foch planned a defense of the Balkans with a new French and British expeditionary corps and a general offensive against Germany, in order to expel Soviets from East Germany and Poland. The time for the counter-attack was settled for May. The new German Army would not have tanks nor aircrafts ready for that month. It was Foch’s intent to rely almost solely on British and French troops, before the German army could have too much weight.
The offensive in Germany was coordinated with an Italian offensive in Croatia and Dalmatia against the Fourteenth Red Army and the newly formed Yugoslav Red Army.
The two opposite plans were symmetric: for the Spring of 1921 the Soviets would attack in the Balkans and defend their lines in Dalmatia and Germany, while the Allied were preparing two offensives in Dalmatia and Germany and a defense of the Balkan front.