The Great Depression of 2008 Project

Alright, so say Bush decides he won't bail out the baks and car companies in September or so, and so the initial financial crisis is allowed to spin out of control into a full-blown depression within the next few months. What I want to know is how, in the short-term, this affects the Presidential election, and how the last few years would've turned out with, instead of a chronic recession, a full-blown depression on levels comparable to 1930's America or Weimar Germany. Specifically, let's look at: -How does this effect American politics, Both parties had already settled on their tickets by the time of the POD, and I'd imagine Obama would still win the election So, how would the midterms and lead-up to the 2012 election go? How would Obama deal with the Second Great Depression? I'd imagine that anti-estalishment forces on both ends of the spectrum would be accentuated, essentially creating a Tea Party and "Occupy" movement on steroids, and a lot of anti-establishment fols in both parties could get elected in 2010 and beyond. Even earlier, what 2008 races could go differently?
Also, while I don't neccesarily see a huge rise in third party electoral success, I'd think that in some cases independents who got more than 10% of the vote did better. For example, what if Dean Barkley did better (but didn't neccesarily win) in the 2008 Minnesota election? What if this led to the Minnesota Independence Party winning some House seats in 2010? What if Tom Tancredo won the 2010 Colorado gubernatorial race on the Constitution Party ticket? What if Jim Traficant wom his independent bid for Congress in 2010?
-How would this affect European politics, especially looking at the Eurozone crisis, with Greece and Italy, among others? How would the most recent British General election have gone? How does this affect the Scottish independence movement?
-What about the rest of the world? Does this radicalize Arab Spring? Would Iran or North Korea try anything?
-Pop culture. What happens?
Please discuss!
 
yeah, sorry for the massive wall 'o text, which I tried to edit. Sucks about having to post using an old phone!
 
I think the Greek people would have intensified their efforts to storm parliament and establish a "true democracy" sooner rather than later. The Eurozone would most certainly falter sooner too and by 2011 may not even exist anymore.

Imagine Occupy Wall Street here only worse and more confrontational.

Massive riots around the world, a much worse London riot, etc.

Heck, I bet Communism or far right politics would take root in at least a few countries. People always turn to the radical right or radical left in times of crisis, so the tea party and Communist Party of the United States of America would both be buoyed by the failure of the national and global economy. Same goes for Europe.

Pretty much like our world only worse.
 
Perhaps more drastic Tea Party/ Occupy Movements. Perhaps people begin to draw (incorrect) Nazi Germany parallels. America leaves Afghanistan and Iraq ASAP.

Arab Spring is more volatile and without the NATO "no fly zone" the Libyan Civil War is more extreme. China's economy tanks after their housing bubble bursts. EU dissolves in a matter of months.
 
But yeah, what do you guys think of Dean Barkley being more successful in his 2008 Senate race, strengthening the Independence Party, and about Jim Traficant and Tom Tancredo winning their independent races in 2010?
 
In the short term, Obama and the Democrats have complete freedom of action with little effective GOP opposition. The Republicans take the blame for the mess far more than they did and probably are still punished further in the 2010 midterms.

After that, it really depends on how Obama handles the situation. What he got was pretty grim, and this is a multiple of grim worse. My personal opinion is that it probably would not have gone well, but I really don't want to say much more than that for fear that we get bogged down in matters best left to a contemporary politics forum. I will leave it at this: an economic collapse would require a remaking of both political and economic institutions, a task which I'm not sure the incrementalist and essentially establishmentarian Obama would be equipped temperamentally or experientially to handle. From there, circa late 2011, things start getting screwy and headed toward extremism in American politics (screwier than they already are that is).
 
In the short term, Obama and the Democrats have complete freedom of action with little effective GOP opposition. The Republicans take the blame for the mess far more than they did and probably are still punished further in the 2010 midterms.

After that, it really depends on how Obama handles the situation. What he got was pretty grim, and this is a multiple of grim worse. My personal opinion is that it probably would not have gone well, but I really don't want to say much more than that for fear that we get bogged down in matters best left to a contemporary politics forum. I will leave it at this: an economic collapse would require a remaking of both political and economic institutions, a task which I'm not sure the incrementalist and essentially establishmentarian Obama would be equipped temperamentally or experientially to handle. From there, circa late 2011, things start getting screwy and headed toward extremism in American politics (screwier than they already are that is).

The PoD's early enough...what about Hillary?
 

iddt3

Donor
The PoD's early enough...what about Hillary?
I don't know if this would have any effect on the primary process (well it would but how would you quantify it?) Still the factors that worked for Obama OTL work for him just as much here, he still probably wins.
 
Politically both major parties would be floundering. The Republicans would be dragged down by blame for the depression, and the Democrats would suffer from the ineffectiveness of a president who has barely two years of national political experience on his resume. So I agree that many people would turn toward third party and left-right extremism for answers. Those groups would develop more quickly than they did in the 1930s due to technology. They would be major forces by this point in the New Depression.

I'd be very surprised if a major challenger to Obama did not emerge during the 2012 primaries. Hilary perhaps?
 
The Eurozone collapses and the European economy flounders completely. Greece makes a radical shift to the left being taken under a more "democratic socialist republic". Germany is left holding the bill for much of Europe and susequently goes into major depression. Britain experiences serious job loss and massive unrest, hell it might even reignite the Troubles if Ireland feels the tug hard enough. France sees the fall of the Sarkozy government. In Italy Burseloni is assasinated and the country takes a Greek turn.

North America has the Republicans become the pariah among the majority of voters with an overwhelming Obama victory, less Republican blocking means he accomplishes more but the economy is always crashing down around him so his many efforts are not very productive, taxes are raised. Right-wing violence becomes common place as extremist militias see him as a socialist dictator. Canada has a small scale job loss as the unskilled are quickly snapped up in a massive nation wide reconstruction project which by 2010 has fizzled due to lack of funds leaving a severly weakened infastructure.
 

MAlexMatt

Banned
There are a few very important questions:

1. WHY don't the bail-outs happen? Who gets the blame for the Depression depends on how this question is answered.

2. Are we talking about just a lack of Congressional bailouts, or do the Fed's toxic asset purchases not happen, either? What course does monetary policy in general take?

A world where billions or trillions of assets are locked up in bankruptcy courts for a few years but the economy is buoyed by a very accommodating monetary policy is extremely different from a world where the collapse of a few dozen financial institutions sets of a general panic that brings down the whole financial system. The original Great Depression was more of the latter, but you'd have a lot of trouble replicating that nowadays because the Fed, even at its worst, isn't run by such absolute ignoramuses these days. No one, NO ONE, subscribes to the real bills doctrine anymore. The Fed doesn't HAVE a gold reserve to defend. A Fed that doesn't drop its policy rate to 0-.25% is more or less ASB.

So, I don't know how long you could realistically get a depression like this to last. A half a decade, on the outside. A decade if the policy response is particularly abysmal, but I get the feeling there's going to be immense levels of grid-lock.
 
About the GOP: yes, they would lose hard in 2008, but don't count out a comeback in 2010 in levels equal or greater to OTL.

The signs in late 2008 are going to bad, but it will take many months, probably more than a year, for the situation to regress to the point where it's "rock-bottom" and plateaus low, probably around mid-2010.

In the meantime, Obama will be trying to fix a far worse-than-OTL economy from scratch, without the added benefit of the initial bail-outs spotted by Bush. During all of this, all the public will see is failure, and right-wingers could blame that on Obama's "big government" policies (worked in OTL). This could sweep them to victory.

About third parties, I'm torn. Probably the uber-progressives and uber-conservatives will just pull Tea Party-style movements and try to comandeer the GOP and Dems, respectively, like the Tea Party did in OTL but just more effectively. This would create a far more polarized Congress that would add fuel to the fire.

The independent runs I see coming off best from this would be Tom Tancredo's run for the governor of Colorado in 2010 on the constitution party line, Jim Traficant's independent House race, and the Minnesota Independence Party (maybe Jesse Ventura runs for governor again).

Man, this would have potential to be a very dystopic world.
 
Why are people so damn sure the Eurozone will break up? Consider this analysis from the Swiss bank UBS. The negatives of leaving the Euro far outweighs staying in, even though it may be a bit of a pest and cholera choice. Further fiscal integration seems much more likely.
 
Why are people so damn sure the Eurozone will break up? Consider this analysis from the Swiss bank UBS. The negatives of leaving the Euro far outweighs staying in, even though it may be a bit of a pest and cholera choice. Further fiscal integration seems much more likely.

My reasoning behind the break up of the Eurozone is that no country wants to be left holding the bill when the sovereign debt crisis continues out of control.
 
Does anyone know how this would affect the politics of individual European countries? Would the Tories still win in Britain, and would the British Greens, UKIP, and/or BNP gain any traction? What about the cause of Scottish independence?

What about Italy's situation? Would the Lega Nord be more popular? What about Finland?

Also, how would all of this affect Arab Spring? How would especially Iran and Israel be affected?
 
Maybe Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party (of New York!) candidate wins the 2009 special congressional election like he nearly did...
 

iddt3

Donor
About the GOP: yes, they would lose hard in 2008, but don't count out a comeback in 2010 in levels equal or greater to OTL.

The signs in late 2008 are going to bad, but it will take many months, probably more than a year, for the situation to regress to the point where it's "rock-bottom" and plateaus low, probably around mid-2010.

In the meantime, Obama will be trying to fix a far worse-than-OTL economy from scratch, without the added benefit of the initial bail-outs spotted by Bush. During all of this, all the public will see is failure, and right-wingers could blame that on Obama's "big government" policies (worked in OTL). This could sweep them to victory.

About third parties, I'm torn. Probably the uber-progressives and uber-conservatives will just pull Tea Party-style movements and try to comandeer the GOP and Dems, respectively, like the Tea Party did in OTL but just more effectively. This would create a far more polarized Congress that would add fuel to the fire.

The independent runs I see coming off best from this would be Tom Tancredo's run for the governor of Colorado in 2010 on the constitution party line, Jim Traficant's independent House race, and the Minnesota Independence Party (maybe Jesse Ventura runs for governor again).

Man, this would have potential to be a very dystopic world.

The tea party's success in OTL isn't primarily fueled by Economic malaise but by irrational fear of Obama. An actual depression means that theres not time for that on either side, Obama can't do Health care, and the Tea Party is lunatic fringe.
 
The tea party's success in OTL isn't primarily fueled by Economic malaise but by irrational fear of Obama. An actual depression means that theres not time for that on either side, Obama can't do Health care, and the Tea Party is lunatic fringe.

A full-on depression would, if anything, be the time for the fringe to come to the fore-front. If it's not getting better by the midterms, which I doubt, the GOP could stand a chancr at getting somewhere...

Of course, this alt-Tea Party would probably be a lot more libertarian than it's OTL counterpart, with even less time to focus on social issues.
 
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