What if Mussolini remains imprisoned by the Bagdolio government? How does this affect the world at large and more importantly the Italian theatre?
What if Mussolini remains imprisoned by the Bagdolio government? How does this affect the world at large and more importantly the Italian theatre?
I think it depends on how it fails. Pretty much the only reason Hitler had Mussolini rescued was to prop up a fellow fascist dictator, and to prove he could do it. Mussolini had almost no worth at this point beyond propaganda value. Have the raid come up empty, and it doesn't change much at all, other than a possible future attempt to rescue Mussolini, and Skorzeny doesn't end up with the fame he got in OTL from the raid. Have the Italian official Skorzeny forced to cooperate in OTL not go along (how this is accomplished isn't important), and the Italian soldiers guarding Mussolini could very well have opened fire on Skorzeny and the Fallschirmjäger, which would have forced the erstwhile rescuers to make one of three, possibly four choices:
1. Make a fighting withdrawal down a fucking mountain
2. Surrender
3. Attempt to storm the hotel and overpower the Italian garrison
4. Die while attempting #3
Options 2, 3, and 4 also have the potential to see conflict arise between the Fallschirmjäger and Skorzeny/Waffen-SS about what decision to make. For example, the paratroops might not have much of a problem with surrendering should the need arise, but Skorzeny almost certainly wouldn't. This doesn't even begin to get into whether or not some sort of rescue op for the rescuers would take place, or whether keeping the paras and Skorzeny supplied is even an option.
I can't see Skorzeny surrendering. 1 or 3 would be the more likely option. But there were not a lot of Italian troops protecting Mussolini. So it would be unnecessary to do a fighting retreat, so the only way I could see the mission failing, is if the attempt to storm the Hotel fails and Skorenzy dies.
The thing of it is, Skorzeny wasn't exactly integral to the mission's success or failure, so as long as Mussolini is rescued alive, the only thing caused by Skorzeny's death is butterflies. As for a fighting retreat, you may very well be right, I was just throwing that option out there given I don't know how well either side could expect to be reinforced. My guess is not very well for both of them.
The raid being a failure in my mind worked out with the Italian troops being stocked with a bit more loyal stock. Mussolini remains in allied hands, Skorzeny is killed and the German paratroopers are forced to surrender. What Im really interested in are the implications of what would happen to the Italian Social Republic. I understand that when Hitler met Mussolini at Rastenberg, he threatened to lay waste to Northern Italy if there was no compliance. So Mussolini agreed to take control of the puppet state. With no Mussolini, any hope of a false government will probably be abandoned.
Although this guy seems like a good choice.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alessandro_Pavolini
Afraid that I don't known much about Italy during the War. Sorry. What make this board fun is that some POD will end up going in direction you never suspect.