The Graduate: a very different Taiping timeline

I'll be following this one just out of great love for Jonathan Spence's writing. The clear and engaging writing in the TL so far is a nice bonus :)
 
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#3 Have you forgotten the face of your father?

Guizhou-Guangxi border, July 2nd 1834 14:00

The storm of arrows did not catch Hong Huoxiou's (1) column completely by surprise. A brief shout of warning by the scouts had led most of his pikemen (2) to take cover and some of his gunners had primed their weapons. Still, the lethal rain of bamboo shafts was reducing the effectivness of their return fire and too many of his men were down, twisting in agony.

Hong Huoxiou's grimly recalled one of Sun Tzu's maxims. "To act rashly in the face of surprise is a great danger. But to hesitate is invariably lethal". Taking a minute to shout swift instructions to Feng Xiaoping he Rises up from behind the shelter Hong Huoxiou slapped the rear ends of his pikemen with the flat of his sword, then proceeds to lead from the front- "Charge! A bonus to the first man who serves me Yao (3) liver for dinner!"

Guizhou-Guangxi border, July 2nd 1834 15:30

Hong Huoxiou gently closes the eyes of Feng Xiaoping. The Bamboo shaft sticking out of his belly had sealed his fate, even if they had been closer to medical treatment. All he could do for the man who had become his friend was to offer him a mercy stroke. When he rises to address his surviving me his eyes are hard. "The men who attacked us could not survive in mountains for long without supplies from Dainaijiang village. Let us now end this problem… permanently"


Guangxi Province, Jiantan, September 2nd 1837

Four years. Three major rebellions. Numerous Bandit and river pirate suppression campaigns. There is little softness left in the face of the young peasant scholar now. He does not know why it is that he has found himself in combat so often but his body and mind bears the scars of those encounters (4).

He thought he had inured himself to fear, mercy or guilt long ago. But something about this latest campaign has struck a raw nerve. The rebels are not bandits turned ambitious warlords. Not are they barbarians disputing ownership of land with Han farmers. They are people much like the farmers of his own county. Like them they are Hakka, the descendents of those who have fled the ancestors of the Qing (5) to the fertile fields of south China. Like the men of his own clan they had found the best fields taken and had had to make do on the slopes of the mountains. Unlike the men of his village, who are a Hakka island in the Punti sea, here the Hakka predominate. And like most Hakka they are poor, poorer than even his own clan.

Part of that Poverty is a function of the land. Too rocky, too steep to grow rice the Hakka had cleared out fields of Maize and Potatos, Leaving slopes whose Soil frequently (6) washed down into the pearl river valley below.

Much of the poverty however is caused by Corrupt officials. Rotated every three years and paid a pittance, each new county magistrate had sought a way to further gouge the peasants of these rough hills. After all, they had few Scholar gentry to protect them as the lowlanders did (7).

"Fools". Feng Hui summarizes succiently (8).

"They are desperate"

"As I said. Desperate fools. Did they truly think they could challenge the servants of the emperor and go unpunished? Do they not understand how vast the empire is? Seizing the perfecture Yangban, or even the entire province would mean nothing- the empire can always bring in troops from loyal provinces and swamp them under".

Hong sighs. Feng, unlike him, was born into a military family. They had been assured of a rice subsidy from the state each month for as long as they lived (9). He can not understand the desperation of a hungry belly sticking to one's back, the rage a father feels when he must order a girl child exposed because
her labor will never cover resources invested in her upbringing (10) and whatever surplus his fields produce are gathered by the tax farmers.

"Perhaps they felt others elsewhere would rebel as well. There have been more and more rebellions this past decade. And dynasties have been toppled by such rebellions in the past."

Feng hisses in fear, glancing sideways quickly to make sure they are alone. Hong's words are perilously close to suggesting the "signs preceding the fall of dynasties". Once he realizes they are alone he relaxes. "Well, this rebellion is over. Only the executions are left to be carried out. and then we can go back to Gunandong and our homes. I, for one have spent enough time in the stony fields of Guangxi".

Hong is silent and Feng realizes that, of course, he would not be joining the men in Guandong (11).

Guangxi province, Jiantan, September 3rd

A long line of bound men awaits Hong's attention the next day. Some had been wounded in battle with his troops. Others had been implicated in assaulting landlords or Tax collectors and had been identified by the survivors. The excecutioners are mercifully swift but mercilessley efficient. None of the assembled townspeople can doubt the evidence of the growing pile of heads- defiance of imperial rule is futile. Some of the executed threaten and scream defiance to the last, but most plead for mercy offering fantastic bribes for their lives. Some commanders would be tempted by those bribes- Hong is not which is why he has been assigned this duty.

One man stands out amongst the condemmed. He is old, as old as Hong's grandfather, and in spite of his predicament he carries himself with the same air of quiet self assurance. Hong lifts a hand when he approaches him, halting the executioner. "Why is this grandfather condemmed?"The surviving civil magistrate hands Hong a stack of papers. "This man was seen by his neighbors while burying this poison in his yard".

Hong quickly scans the clumsily drawn charcters. They are Tong propaganda calling for the overthrow of the Qing and the restoration of the Ming. He doubts that these leaflets had anything to do with the Rebellion. This was the work of starving peasants, not the fanatics of the Secret societies. Hong sighs. He has some discretion in carrying out the executions.

"Tell me grandfather. Do you even understand what these leaflets mean? From whom did you recieve them? Tell us and you may end your days in peace with your children."

The condemmend man hangs silently in his bonds. At first Hong fears he will reuse to speak. And when he does his words are less than pleasing. "My children are all dead. And I am xiucai (12) and a schoolmaster. It is I who wrote these words (13) and what they mean is that the time of Qing is ended. the signs preceding the fall of dynasties have arrived and the Qing have lost the Mandate of heaven."

The words hang silently in the village square and Hong feels his heart sink. There is but one way to wipe the effect of these words from the villagers. He raises his voice so that all may hear. "Let this man be spared... until all the other rebels are executed. Then, let him die by slow slicing (14)."

The old man keeps silent for far longer than Hong would have believed possible, forcing him to extend the torture beyond what he had planned. It is only two hours later that the executioner steps forward to end his pain. In the instant before his blade decapitates the old man Hong nearly lets out a startled cry. The face of the rebel is no longer that of the Guangxi scholar. It is that of his grandfather, Hong Guoyou.

As the Head of the Tong sympathizer is separated from his soldiers, a fountain of blood obscures Hong's vision for a moment. When it clears, the head has rolled to the edge of the assembled crowd, in front of a young boy with all too old eyes.

While the current version of the book of the sevenfold prophet claim other dates, it is in fact the locked gaze of Hong Huoxiou and young Shi Dakai** (15) which triggers the first definiative vision of the Man who would one day become known as Hong Xiuquan.

(1) He probably would have chosen a different name TTL. But I'll be damned if I can understand enough of what goes into these names to make an informed choice. So I'll stick to his old one.

(2) From what I can make out the force composition of Qing infantry formations at this time was about 60% Melee weapons, mostly pikemen and 40% gunners and bowmen. The pikemen surround the gunners to protect against Cavalry charges and the gunners pepper their opponents with Sort of like Europe during the 30 years war but much, much, less professional.

(3) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yao_people#Groups_and_languages Another rebellion largely undocumented by Westerners. Lasted for more than a year and left nearly a hundred thousand dead.

(4) OTL he was a glory hound leading from the front until the Taiping took Nanking. I suspect he would be the same TTL. This is sufficiently different from the standard Green standard officers to make him stand out and be sent to the hot spots.

(5) The Jurchens of the early Jin dynasty. The Manchu are their descendants. Sorta-Kinda.

(6) The arrival of new world crops to China was a curse in disguise. It allowed a massive demographic explosion as the hillsides became cultivatable- but the yield for acre and man-hour was lower and the loss of the upland forests led to massive flooding disasters and further improvished the lowlands who no longer had access to wood, animal protein and other forest products.

(7) Having "Proteksia" of litearati who can directly approach officials and "assist" them in tax collection, etc is one reason Chinese families are so desperate to get a family member through the imperial exams. Even if those who pass (less than 1% per annum) fail to win a posting (as 96% of them do) they still wield massive influence.

(8) The Cousin of Feng Xiaoping- and completely fictional. I'll use an asterix** to denote historical figures

(9) Massive drain on the state coffers. Supporting the Banner and Standard troops swallows 70% of the imperial revenue.

(10) Exposing female infants as a population control and resource management mechanism (in pre industrial revolution societies the economic output/food intake of women is much smaller than that of men) was common in almost every society prior to the spread of the Western Monotheistic religions. China is not unique in that.

(11) officials, except for the most junior ones are forbidden to serve in an official capacity in their home province. While Green standard troops are often sent across Provinicial boundaries (Especialy to avoid conflicts of loyalty when the troops need to supress their own neighbors) the fact that Hong is commanding Guandong troops is an anomaly caused by passing the exams and being attached to a Guandong Unit precisely when that unit had been sent to Guangxi to deal with a series of Rebellions.

(12) County level degree holder.

(13) A lie- he's protecting someone.

(14) AKA the death of a thousand cuts http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_a_thousand_cuts

(15) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shi_Dakai. Yes, I know, wildly unlikely. But the location is right and Shi Dakai is just too cool a character NOT to use. The 1836-1837 rebellion in Jiantan is OTL BTW and SHi Dakai's family seems to have been peripharially involved in it and they suffered for it though accounts differed (one reason for his hostility to the Qing). I'm not sure I'll make anything out of this scene other than, well, scenery, but I'm keeping it as an option.
 
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I don't pretend that this is my historical strongpint but it's still a fascinating concept and very well written and explained.
 

Rosenheim

Donor
I believe it means: "I Think You Mean'

From what you've posted so far, I've enjoyed this time line very much. The Taiping rebellion is fascinating for the support it received and how far it came, yet it still would have been a disaster if had succeeded. To see how the movement could be remimagined into something the better will be a wild ride. Thanks for taking us along with you. :D
 
#4 The younger brother of Confucius


Guagnxi Province, October 1st 1837

Hong Huoxiou's body arches in agony, barely restrained by the bonds placed upon him by the attending physician.

"What is wrong with him?" asks Feng Hui. "Surely the wound he received (1) is not that serious?"

The physician slowly shakes his head. "The wound was badly treated and festered… but no. He is a young man with a healthy diet. He should have recovered by now. It is his Chi. It is unbalanced. Not due to external causes but due to internal causes (2)."

"Well? What then is to be done?"

"He must find Balance on his own. All that I can do is attend to his wellbeing while his emotions align with each other into harmony".

Feng spares a final glance for his former commander. Somehow, he suspects that whatever official will replace him will be far less competent… though he will probably also be less scrupulous in minimizing looting and less anxious to put him in harm's way. Reluctantly he loosens his purse strings and places several strings of cash in the physician's hand. "Take cae of him as long as is necessary. Should these funds prove insufficient you may approach the secretary of county commander Xiang Rong**(3)"

As he leaves he can hear Hong moaning in derilium, lost in visions only he can see.

The void between time

A vast face with yellow hair and eyebrows, full of both wisdom and fury….

Feng Xiaoping, empty eyes staring at the sky after he slit his throat…

His grandfather, exhorting him to bring honor to the family name….

Zhao the golden dragon, screaming defiance from his stronghold at the Qing forces…

The tattooed Yao warriors, falling beneath his blows…..

Jiantian and Fuyuanshui(4) , mixed into one nightmarish almaglam, threatened by hordes of demons bursting from the earth, twisting both villagers and Qing officials into grotesque reflections of themselves….

The face of the executed Tiandihui sympathizer, transforming again and again into his grandfather ….

A kindly, older man of large but near human proportions, standing by his side as he beats back the demonic hordes….

Flashes of the Tiandihui text calling for a restoration of the Ming mixed with the analects of Confucius calling for fillial service to legitimate authority….

And above all the omnipresent voice of the vast golden haired man mournfully proclaiming- "All is chaos under heaven"

Guangxi Province, February 15th 1838

Xiang Rong accepts Hong's bow (5) with a brisk nod. "I understand you have been ill for some time now".

Hong is unsure how to respond. Was that a question? A criticism? Or simply an observation?

He opts for the safest course. "I am fully able to resume whatever duties you view as appropriate for my inadequate talents"

Xiang slowly nods, letting Hong know that he has passed some manner of test. "I am not at all sure that your talents are inadequate. You have performed conscientiously and loyally in many campaigns during your short service. Indeed you have performed so well that I have asked, and received authorization to promote you to the rank of leopard commander second class (6)"

Hong does not feel the joy he might have expected at this news but is careful to display gratitude to his commander, and possible future patron. " I shall endevour to justify your trust. What task do you wish me to undertake and with which men?"

Xiang shakes his head. "Unfortunately, I cannot allow you to undertake any command at the moment". Noting Hong's puzzlement, Xiang gently pushed a missive with delicate calligraphy towards Hong. "Your grandfather fell ill at about the same time that you did. I am afraid that unlike you he did not recover. You are, I am sure, aware of the regulations under such circumstances. Fillial duty must come first (7)"

Hong numbly accepts the missive, his mind filled with awe- his vision was a true one! (8)


(1) Brief skirmish with die hard Guangxi rebels. I left it out of the narrative.
(2) In other words he's suffering from post traumatic stress disorder and a general breakdown. A western physician would have said that the problem is not with with his body but with his soul but TCM does not recognize this duality.
(3) OTL he coordinated the attempts to destroy the Taiping during the early, thistle mountain period, of the rebellion and doggedly pursued Hong into Hunan and down the Yangtze. Currently, he is holding a minor military post in Guangxi (he was one of the few Qing commanders to be promoted up from the ranks).
(4) Hong's home village.
(5) Have no idea of what Qing military protocol at this time point consists of. So I'll just imagine them as being Pseudo-Tokugawa and trust to readers to correct me.
(6) Again, no idea how the ranks correspond to command size. My impression is that the ranks are mainly a matter of pay grade and prestige rather than having any real effect of the table of organization. See here for a short summary of how the overlapping chain of command of Millitia, Green standard, Banner armies and civil administration works- http://publishing.cdlib.org/ucpress...4&chunk.id=d0e310&toc.id=d0e288&brand=ucpress
(7) Qing officials were obliged to take three years (!) of paid vacation in order to mourn the deaths of parents, paternal male grandparents and elder male siblings. While the justification is Confucian the real aim is to prevent officials from accumulating too much of a power base. Hong's grandfather seems to have died sometime between 1837-1839 (records are sparse) and his father may have died as well shortly thereafter (contributing to Hong's degeneration) so I'm using this as a plot device to get him back to his home province and county in time for the Opium war.
(8) After reading the accounts of dream and vision interpretations by Hong and various other rebel leaders I've come to the conclusion that they would either find validation for their visions whatever they were, or else that these visions were carefully constructed propaganda for their followers. In Hong's case it was probably a mixture of the two. Bottom line is that I chose to use the death of his gradfather as a plausible plot device but that if you wish you can view this post as a retroconned propaganda spiel for his followers.
 
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I believe it means: "I Think You Mean'

:D

Ah. In that case, no, Functionally insane is what I meant- it means someone who is operating according to false assumptions that still result in favorable interaction with the real world.

Like using Newtonian mechanics. Or a variety of religious practices from various Pagan, Eastern and Monotheistic religions which will invariably offend someone on this thread if I gave them.
 
A quality China wank, one that seems well researched and that has good background explanation? Sign me up!
 
#5 How to influence people, win the war on drugs and grow powerful in the process

Guandong province, Hua county (1), Fuyuanshui village, March 2nd 1838

Hong Huoxiou kneels before his Grandfather's grave. He wonders whether his Grandfather would have been proud to see him as he now was. An official, when the Hongs had always been subjects. An officer dedicated to suppressing the rebellions of peasants, when the Hongs had tended to be rather rebellious peasants.

The wind rustles through the willows surrounding the modest Hong ancestral temple. "Honor to the Clan" the wind whispers. Or perhaps it is only his memories. Hong's eyes fill with tears. "I'm trying grandfather. But am I on the right path? Can honor be achieved by slaying those too poor to pay their taxes? By subordinating myself to those who punish those who break the law while they poison themselves with Opium behind closed doors? (2)"

The wind is silent for a long time. Just as Hong is about to leave the temple he hears it whisper again "Restore Harmony" (3).

Preface to Hong Xiuquan: the lost years by John K. Fairbanks, 1946 (4)

It is difficult, given the later propaganda and destruction the victorious Taiping engaged in to fully account for Hong Xiuquan's actions and development between March 1838 to the fateful days of May 1841. Propaganda aside it appears clear that following the death of his grandfather and the illness of his father Hong Xiuquan was able to use the prestige of his degree and his considerable charisma to effectively take over the leadership of the Hong clan. His degree also enabled him to considerably advance the fortunes of his clan and ensure that tax assessments for their land were considerably lower than they had hitherto been, whereas several of his siblings and cousins including Feng Yunshan and Hong Rengan of later renown were able, thanks to his efforts, to receive positions as secretaries and aides in the county and provincial administration. As for himself, he assumed a part-time occupation as schoolmaster, but also came to increasingly dominate the as yet miniscule village militia.

In those enterprises however, Hong Xiuquan, then still known as Hong Huoxiou, was little different than any number of other scholar gentry who for whatever reason did not serve the Qing in an official capacity. Where he stood out, and the actions which led to both official and unofficial recognition of his talents was in his relentless crusade against the traffic and use of Opium.

Taiping official history has Hong Xiuquan inspiring, and even directly advising Lin Zexu, on the need and the means by which the Scrouge of Opium might be combated. These claims may be safely dismissed. In fact, many officials and scholar gentry in various provinces were competing with each other to display their zeal in combating this "foreign poison", as the Daoguang emperor referred to it in his famous circular. There are no indications that Hong Xiuquan's preaching against the evils of Opium had much effect beyond his own village and extended clan. Until the appointment of Lin Zexu as Governor general of Guandong and Guanxi he might preach but could not, save indirectly, act. Once it became clear that Lin Zexu would soon be placed in charge of an Opium eradication campaign however, matters changed.

The County magistrate of Hua county zealously sought to prepare for the coming of Lin Zexu by displaying his own seriousness in combating the plague of Opium. As later events would show that zealousness may well have been a cover for his own deep involvement in Opium smuggling operations. Be that as it may, Hong Xiquan's network of followers, clan members, students, etc proved uniquely suited to identifying Opium traffickers and users and his charismatic preaching proved incredibly successful in mobilizing the masses against them. What was truly unique about his approach however was the draconian decrees (5) that he convinced the county magistrate to pass. By those decrees any man who did not turn himself in for "re-education" within a given time period would be subject to penal servitude if found in possession of Opium and his belongings, including spouses and children, would be seized by the county and sold by auction. In order to encourage reports of opium use informers were rewarded with a third of the recipt of the sale. Needless to say both the magistrate and Hong and his cronies greatly benefited from the resulting seizures, with both amassing control of extensive land and properties.

The growing wealth achieved by those confiscations contributed to the formation and training and equipping of a larger militia starting in roughly March 1840. While this militia was necessary to deal with the growing banditary in Guandong unleashed by the British blockade, Hong was careful to encourage his own clan members to enlist in the Millitia first and it's members soon came to be personally loyal to Hong.

The fruitful partnership between Hong and the County magistrate ended when Hong's followers stormed the County Yamen in March 1841, revealing a massive stash of Opium, apparantly hoarded and sold outside the county by the county magistrate, who took advantage of the inflated prices to swell his personal coffers. Under any other conditions this action against an appointed official, however corrupt, would have resulted in an immediate retaliation by imperial authorities but with Guangzhou under siege by the British and Hong in control of the county Militia imperial reaction was delayed, and of course, after the events of May-June, no longer likely. While a new County Magistarate was eventualy appointed Hong remained in de-facto control of the county until his final rupture with Qing authorities.

It is difficult to separate the anti-Opium crusade from the Quasi-secret society forming around Hong. While on the face of it, Hong preached, at that point, no more than a call for purified, or "true" neo-Confucian orthodoxy, it seems clear that some preparation, at least in the inner circle, was being made for more Hetrodox doctrines. How much of the final form of the Taiping theology was revealed to the inner circle at that point, or, indeed, to what extent if any, it was crystallized within the Mind of Hong Xiuquan is impossible to know. Likewise it is unclear to what extent Hong was in contact with other secret societies at that point. His "revelation" of September 1842 certainly included elements the Tiandhui escathalogy, the Christian influenced "Worshippers of Shangdi" and Millennial Buddhist sects as well as elements of the more orthodox faiths of Southeastern China but to what extent these elements were part of "Hong Xiuquan thought" prior to the alliances underlying the formation of the Taiping remains unclear.

What is clear is that during "the lost years" Hong was able to walk an extremely fine line between acting as a representative of the essentially conservative gentry of his county, the champion of the poorer peasants, an official representing the Qing, a master of his own paramilitary force/cult and an associate of the wide ranging network of anti-Qing secret societies.

Such a position was fraught with tensions and internal contradictions. It could not have come to pass except under the unique conditions that prevailed in Guandong during the first Anglo-Chinese war, and it is difficult to believe Hong would have been capable to maintain it for long past that war. And indeed, he did not.

In this volume I shall attempt to plot out what is known and what may be conjunctured about those lost years, and their significance to the later development of the Taiping movement and the celestial kingdom.


(1) Today, it's a neighborhood within Guanxou (Canton). But back then it is still a largely rural county, albeit one well within the economic, cultural and social orbit of the metropolis.
(2) The #1 users of Opium are ironically, the very officials and officers who are supposed to prohibit its use. Qing Generals estimated that 90% of their officers were users.
(3) Again, you may view this whole SN episode as either retroactive propaganda or as Hong having "genuine" visions.
(4) Obviously a historical homologue. Though I'm not a wild fan of Butterfly's.
(5) Imperial China does not have laws per se, except for a limited number of criminal offenses. The executive authority (that is the appointed officials) are also the judiciary who hear the case (and that means they are judge, jury, prosecutor and executioner rolled into one), AND the legistlative authority. They do not act according to a constitution or organic laws (as is the case in Tsarist Russia) but according to their personal interpretation of Confucian morality. Since they are rotated every three years that means that a villager may find that the definition of crimes radically changes from official to official. Of course most disputes (that is, what in the west would be defined as civil crimes) are handled on the sub-official level by arbitration by clan elders, guilds, tradition, various priesthoods, etc. The State justice is concerned with crimes against the state and Confucian morality- not crimes between people (which is another reason for the slow development of capitalism. No legal certainty or clarity).
 
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When a hundred million people refuse to call a spade a spade....well, maybe it's actually a duck.

So it is- until they decide to call it a spade. And eventually they do unless the reality changes (Eg; Franks converting to Orthodox Catholicism, ditching the German language and intermarrying with the Gaulo-Roman elites).

Whoa. How did I miss that? Could you recommend a source? I've not heard a word on the subject.

Manchus & Han: Ethnic Relations and Political Power in Late Qing and Early Republican China

Look especially at the Xian massacre- or you can just google up 1911, massacre and Manchu/Banner people. Again, these are details that Most Westerners or Modern CHinese don't give much of a damn about. The Banner people were a tiny fraction of the population in China proper, and once they were swept out of the way nobody really noticed they were gone- Their power had been based on a sham and Han elite co-option for a good long while and the Chinese and Westerners both had other things to worry about after 1911.

Well why delay it when China's undergoing relative decline? What would've been best was an earlier war. Japan's navy was made ready only a few years before the war broke out - had it happened a decade earlier it could easily have been a mutual embarrassment instead of a Chinese disaster.

The Japanese avoided going to war with CHina OTL during the Sino-French war for a variety of reasons, including their knowledge of the unreadiness of their fleet (an iteresting POD if they DO decide to go to war. If that happens Japan is quite likely to grab Korea early while France takes Taiwan). there is not a snowballs chance in hell they will go to war in 1884 or 1882 Vs China if the Sino French war is averted.

A few issues:
1. Can China avoid war with France without completely giving up on Annam? think the answer is no
2. Can prince Gong avoid disgrace and loss of power if he "loses" Annam without a fight? Probably not.
3. would the Sino-Japanese war in 1895 be averted if the Sino-French war is averted? There's a window of opportunity for Japan betwen 1895-1900 where Russia can't effectively intervene to counter it (because the Tanssiberian railway is not sufficiently built up). I think the answer is probably not but I'm open to discussion.
4. And if it's not and happens on schedule then would China do better? i think the answer is a qualified no. that is China MIGHT do better but OTL political, as distinguished from military outcome was much Better than China could expect since the triple intervention pushed Japan out of port Arthur and Korea. The Triple intervention was a response not to Japanese weakness but to Japanese strength. A less comprehensive Japanese victory would be LESS likely to provoke the intervention. Japan would have to do much, much worse than it did OTL for the political outcome to be worse for it. The outcome of the war was sufficiently one sided and the effect of the Sino-French war on China's finances sufficiently small (unless Pirnce Gong stays in power and keeps Cixi from gutting the Naval budget) that I can't see China managing a stalemate.

Let us agree however that "Qing dodging the bullet by an averted Sino-French war" would be an interesting timeline to explore. I could make a case for a plausible POD that would lead to that indirectly (for example court intrigue eliminating Cixi prior to the war. possibly she's blamed for the murder of Cian) But it's main impact on the wider world would be seen after WWI or even WWII. And a similiar niche has been filled by the "Super power empire" timeline.

Either way, stalling the Japanese would make Russia the Great Power in northeast Asia, which means everyone but the French will be wanting to back them off.

that's what happened OTL between 1900-1905... and European politics meant Germany was happy to back Russia in order to keep it distracted in Asia whereas Britain was not prepared to risk war with Both Russia and France.


I see where you're coming from. Probably people from a Qing China wank would look at a Han-led China wank and shout wank. But given what happened in OTL, I'd argue that it's very doable to wank China relative to its OTL experience, if not relative to your best case. I believe that's what you're saying in terms of ameliorating the problem?

more or less- with the caveat that I really don't think a Qing dynasty can survive on the long term. to do so it would have to do something drastic like have the Emperor marry a Han as principle wife, gradually abolish all Manchu privellage, open up manchuria to Han immigration, and essentially opt for total integration. That's something they would find harder to do than... well harder than the Romanov's opting for constitutional monarchy. That said, I can see a timeline where the Qing stay in power longer until the Chinese economy and civil society develops, or the sort of destructive warfare with Japan as occured in OTL is averted, etc , leading to a transition to some kind of Han dominated government with less or no warlord and civil war transition. But that would be exploring a very different theme than what I am interested in ITTL.


Well, Japan first attacking in WWI (admittedly unlikely) would suggest a Japan that lacks Manchuria, Taiwan, and even Korea. Much less the development and recruitment made possible by those possessions. I suspect the result would be remarkably better for China than what it went through historically.

Depends- OTL China had a popular government capable of mobilizing the masses (Yes, even the KMT maintained remarkable coherence). If Japan marches on Beijing while the Qing are still in power it may find more able collaborators willing to break up China proper (Sun Yat sen tried to get japanese support for a secession of Soutehrn China in 1906 for example).

And then there's the fact that WWI's date wasn't tied down. A pair of global wars in the 1880s/1900s or 1900s/1920s, say, could potentially have broken European exansionist tendencies in time for the Qing to get their house in order. As much as they could.

Yes, but you would need more than one POD for that (and a POD outside China). And the effects would be far wider than China. Part of what I want to do is see how a china based POD would effect events on the long run while minimizing butterflies outside china for as long as I can. My own personal opinion BTW is that a colonial conflict leading to a global war in the 1880s was not very likely and that the disintigration of the Ottoman empire combined with the growing national tension in AH made some kind of Russo-German showdown in Europe between 1908-1926 (assuming no earlier global war) nearly ineveitable. Who joins in the fun and what the outcome would be given different outbreaks is a seprate question.

Indeed it was. But historically many states have survived just such obstacles, sometimes for centuries at a time. You can turn to positive discrimination of minorities for command positions. You can shift people around between commands. You can keep the best commanders on the most inacessible frontiers. You can play ambitious men off each other. Absent structural change it dooms them to instability, but that doesn't necessarily make the collapse of the regime inevitable. Merely likely.
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Aye. Bnd the Qing did just that during the 1850-1870 rebellions. The thing is that the way they survived those rebellions and the second opium war is, in and of itself, quite remarkable and due to several strokes of good luck. They had to deal with a whole lot of other rebellions that never really made it into Western history books too (1886 Mongolia, 1888 Hainan, the 1891 Elder brothers in the yangtze valley, Yunan in 1888, a 1891 revolt in Rehe, a military rebellion almost Every year in Southern CHina between 1905-1911....). Point is that the way they dodged the bullet up to 1911 was realy pushing their luck, going beyond that wiothout structual reform would, I think, be pushing the bounds of plausability.
 
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Is Guanxou the Cantonese pronunciation? I'm not familiar enough to say. Hanyu pinyin has it as Guangzhou.

Edit: Guangdong.

Edit: Love the puns.
 
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