The Gothic State in Italy, 600 AD

Suppose Totila and Gelimer had succeeded in defeating the Byzantine Empire in the 6th Century, and Justinian the Great had not managed to reconquer the Italian peninsula. (Perhaps he lost his best general Belisarius in an earlier battle?) What would be the result of a Gothic kingdom remaining in place in Italy, and perhaps being able to spread its power elsewhere in Europe over the succeeding centuries?
 
I would go with and earlier POD: Eutharic, Theodoric the Great's son in law doesn't die, which Theodoric a more capable successor. IMHO, that's the way to get a more powerful Ostrogothic state in Italy. As for whether they can defeat the Romans, I really don't know. Somebody more knowledgeable than me should answer that one...
 

Philip

Donor
What would be the result of a Gothic kingdom remaining in place in Italy,

While they might retain the Gothic name, they will be absorbed by the Latin population. See France for an example of the 'best' possible outcome. More likely, especially given their Arianism, they will fall apart like Visigothic Spain.

and perhaps being able to spread its power elsewhere in Europe over the succeeding centuries?

Their chance at spreading is near 0. They are hemmed in by the Franks, Romans, and IIRC, the Avars.
 
While they might retain the Gothic name, they will be absorbed by the Latin population. See France for an example of the 'best' possible outcome. More likely, especially given their Arianism, they will fall apart like Visigothic Spain.
What if they convert from Arianism?
 
Gothic State

It it survived the Byzantine invasion, it would still be quite weak. I remember that Justinian's Italian-Gothic war lasted for years. Would'nt this make Italy more likely to be conquered by the Lombards? I'm not sure exactly when the Lombards arrived, but I recall it being not long after the Byzantine-Gothic wars..
 

Philip

Donor
What if they convert from Arianism?

One thing to consider: Conversion is very unlikely. One of the reasons the Goths clung to Arianism so strongly is that is was a way of separating the ruling Arian Goths from the ruled Nicene Latins. Conversion of a Gothic leader will likely lead to revolts by the Arian bishops and nobilitiy. The Gothic king will 'unelected' in a most unpleasant manner.

I suppose a bottom-up conversion is possible, but this would only happen as the Goths are assimilated by the Latins.

Probably a united Italy on the Frankish model.

Doubtful. The collapse of Visigothic Spain after the conversion of Reccared is probably a better model. Revolts were almost immediate. The Catholic king was deposed within a decade. This was followed about 20 years of repeated unrest and regicide. Oh, and the Romans were able to make sigificant military gains why the Visigoths faught.

That the Franks converted from paganism to Christianity rather than from a rival form of Christianity is significant.
 
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