The GNA loses the Turkish War of Independence

After the defeat of the Ottoman Empire in the First World War, the Allies set about carving up the Ottoman Empire among the victors. While they did succeed in carving up the Empire's holdings in the Middle East, there was one area they were not able to carve up: Turkey itself. In the Treaty of Sevres, Edirne and Izmir was given to Greece, Afyon, Konya and Antalya became a Italian zone of influence, Adana, Diyarbakir Sivas were made a French zone of influence, Trabzon, Erzurum and Var were to be given to Armenia and Istanbul and Canakkale were to be made international zones. Turkey was to retain only Bursa, Ankara and Samsun.

However, the Grand National Assembly, Turkey's provisional government, led by the Turkish National Movement and war hero Mustafa Kamal Ataturk, refused to abide by the Treaty and waged war against the Allies, and the remnants of the Ottoman regime, during the Turkish War of Independence. Ataturk's loyalists were able to defeat France, Armenia and Greece in separate conflicts, the latter being the one to convince the Allies that it was almost impossible to force the Treaty of Sevres on the Turks. After much re-negotiation, the Treaties of Kars and Lusanne were signed in 1921 and 1923, respectively. The Treaty of Lusanne effectively saved Turkey from becoming a rump state, with the only sacrifice being the Turkish government giving up all claims of the Ottoman Empire.

But, what if the Grand National Assembly was unable to fight against the Allies and they lost the Turkish of War of Independence?
 
After the defeat of the Ottoman Empire in the First World War, the Allies set about carving up the Ottoman Empire among the victors. While they did succeed in carving up the Empire's holdings in the Middle East, there was one area they were not able to carve up: Turkey itself. In the Treaty of Sevres, Edirne and Izmir was given to Greece, Afyon, Konya and Antalya became a Italian zone of influence, Adana, Diyarbakir Sivas were made a French zone of influence, Trabzon, Erzurum and Var were to be given to Armenia and Istanbul and Canakkale were to be made international zones. Turkey was to retain only Bursa, Ankara and Samsun.

However, the Grand National Assembly, Turkey's provisional government, led by the Turkish National Movement and war hero Mustafa Kamal Ataturk, refused to abide by the Treaty and waged war against the Allies, and the remnants of the Ottoman regime, during the Turkish War of Independence. Ataturk's loyalists were able to defeat France, Armenia and Greece in separate conflicts, the latter being the one to convince the Allies that it was almost impossible to force the Treaty of Sevres on the Turks. After much re-negotiation, the Treaties of Kars and Lusanne were signed in 1921 and 1923, respectively. The Treaty of Lusanne effectively saved Turkey from becoming a rump state, with the only sacrifice being the Turkish government giving up all claims of the Ottoman Empire.

But, what if the Grand National Assembly was unable to fight against the Allies and they lost the Turkish of War of Independence?

well depending how precisely it happened the fall of Lloyd George is possibly avoided. I would expect in Turkey itself gaining the territory for the "allies" would be the easy part and there might well be a very long insurgency that would probably become very bloody. The question would be whether this remained Nationalist and possibly looking to the Soviets for support against the west , or whether Attaturkism is discredited by defeat and turkey becomes the forerunner of Islamist revolutionary tendencies.
It is quite likely that holding a large part of Turkey is a huge strain for Italy and further colonial adventures ie Ethiopia would be ruled out, which would have massive implications. Greece would also be strained by its occupation and likely to suffer national bankruptcy.
 
We just had a similar discussion last week. And I'm sure there are more threads that can be pulled up...

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ykes–picot-agreement-goes-into-effect.433103/

Greece would also be strained by its occupation and likely to suffer national bankruptcy.

Did Greece go bankrupt when they reclaimed East Thrace? At the time, East Thrace and Ionia had Greek pluralities throughout, and I think they were majorities in many cases (especially on the coast). They already have a large, built in population base to work with.

There's a different level of expenditure required for that sort of operation compared to the requirements for a total occupation of a territory. And, even then, Italy wasn't annexing territory (they balked at the territory offered under the Sykes-Picot Agreement) and just had a zone of influence (which really would be an economic investment area, similar to the concessions in China more than anything).

Now, after a defeat such as this? I could see the Turks being forced to give up a bit more. Kurdistan might be recognized as independent de jure, here, with Turkey on the brink. They'd be forced to recognize the boundaries of the Zone of the Straits, Greek Ionia, Syria possessing pieces of Cilicia and Alexandretta, and Western Armenian boundaries.

I mean, I could potentially see Adalia being made an Italian concession in the aftermath for a mainland port. Pushing it, maybe they could reach from Adalia to Aiden. I don't see them pushing for much, however. If they do, it might be better for them to border Greece, just from a defensive standpoint. However, again, any Italian control will be centered around Adalia, so unless they want the long strip...

As for the Zone, it is key for the British is that they are either in the hands of a strong neutral (OTL Turkey) or in the hands of a strong Ally, or in neutral hands. And, in time, with the International Zone losing support (just for pure economic reasons, as after the drawdown of troops the desire to prop up the zone will become less and less), someone must step up to police the region. The only one there, really, is Greece. Considering the revanchism likely to boil in Turkey in the aftermath of the war, Britain may not want to go handing it to them. This goes double for a Turkey that aligns with the Soviets, too. And, Greece being the only power in the region that is amenable to British interests and has the desire to occupy it means that the Zone will likely end up Greek outside of a war breaking out or some other radical shift in alliances.
 
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