The GFC and recession with the Soviet Union still around?

I know I'm taking a leap in assuming a GFC would even occur if the Soviet Union still existed, but hey, the economy is supposedly cyclical. And it's hard to see the neoliberal deregulation not leading to some kind of collapse.

So let's say the Soviet Union is still around. They reformed enough to survive but aren't perceived as having completely abandoned communism, so communism isn't completely discredited among Westerners. In America, Glass-Steagall gets repealed more or less on schedule, and the internet boom and bust still occurs. Maybe no 9/11 since the Jihadists are still battling communists, but you still have a recession in the early noughties and the feds react by blowing up a housing bubble. Meanwhile in Europe, the EEC might not rename itself(doesn't make much sense talking about a European Union when Europe is split in half), but it probably continues to expand European economic integration. And all the PIIGS are members.

And then, sometime in the late noughties, the shit hits the fan. Hello recession. Hello crisis of confidence in capitalism. And maybe, just maybe, places like Greece would be saying hello to communism?
 

ccdsah

Donor
I know I'm taking a leap in assuming a GFC would even occur if the Soviet Union still existed, but hey, the economy is supposedly cyclical. And it's hard to see the neoliberal deregulation not leading to some kind of collapse.

So let's say the Soviet Union is still around. They reformed enough to survive but aren't perceived as having completely abandoned communism, so communism isn't completely discredited among Westerners. In America, Glass-Steagall gets repealed more or less on schedule, and the internet boom and bust still occurs. Maybe no 9/11 since the Jihadists are still battling communists, but you still have a recession in the early noughties and the feds react by blowing up a housing bubble. Meanwhile in Europe, the EEC might not rename itself(doesn't make much sense talking about a European Union when Europe is split in half), but it probably continues to expand European economic integration. And all the PIIGS are members.

And then, sometime in the late noughties, the shit hits the fan. Hello recession. Hello crisis of confidence in capitalism. And maybe, just maybe, places like Greece would be saying hello to communism?

A few points. Europe isn't going to be divided in half. Soviet Union might be salvaged, but the communist states in Eastern Europe will fall if they aren't propped up by SU, which Gorbaciov wasn't willing to do. Best case scenario I think for USSR is to exact some kind of ransom from the West to allow Eastern communist states free.
 
A few points. Europe isn't going to be divided in half. Soviet Union might be salvaged, but the communist states in Eastern Europe will fall if they aren't propped up by SU, which Gorbaciov wasn't willing to do. Best case scenario I think for USSR is to exact some kind of ransom from the West to allow Eastern communist states free.

But it would be more difficult for them to join EU and especially NATO. There would be pressure to "finlandize" them or something similar.
The impact of a surviving Soviet Union on world economy is going to be huge.
I assume that is likely space activity will be boosted, which in turn woulld impact technology in positive ways. OTOH, the whole structure of energetic markets, fossil fuels etc. wil be different, probably even more skewed towards the Saudis as far as the West is concerned.
And how relationship between SU and China are going to play out?
 
I assume that the unstated question here is "would the GFC (or Great Recession if you prefer) cause the public to flock to socialist solutions".

I think the answer to that is no.
Communism may have been discredited but socialism hasn't gone anywhere.
It's certainly alive and well to various degrees in Europe.
But it doesn't seem to have benefited to any great degree from the "crisis of capitalism".

What does seem to have happened though, is growing attraction toward populist/nationalist causes.
That parallels what happened in Europe in the 30s although fortunately we haven't traveled anywhere near as far down that road to perdition (yet?).
Once is quite enough.
 
Top