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What would have happened if instead of making a serious miscalculation which threw off their research (I think it was something to do with thinking only slow fusion bombs were possible, when they weren't possible themselves), the Germans followed the same path as the Americans with the Manhattan Project (roughly)?

Would the Germans have got a bomb by 1945? Would this have been enough to force the Soviets and the Western Allies to ask for a settlement or it would just have meant that Fat Man or one of its brothers would have been used on a German city instead?
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