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I know that German controlled Baltic States are not enough but they would be one point (among others i.e. no Lend and Lease) that could explain a Nazi "victory". I am looking into that for my dystopic timeline and I would like to create a situation that feels believable.
If not!Barbarossa manages to surprise Stalin like it did in OTL (but starting in the Baltic States) than the fall of Leningrad is very likely even if Army Group North gets no extra troops.
The "problem" is that the Baltic States were deep in the Soviet sphere of interest. If the Germans would invade the Baltic States the Soviets would be on high alert and a surprise attack is out of the picture.
So I am looking for a M-R Pact type of deal where the Soviets accept a German invasion of the Baltic States.
What could (and would) a (slightly more "sane" but still evil) Nazi Germany "offer"?
-A larger part of Poland ?
-More concessions on the Balkans?