The German Reich invades the Baltic States in 1940

Anchises

Banned
I know that German controlled Baltic States are not enough but they would be one point (among others i.e. no Lend and Lease) that could explain a Nazi "victory". I am looking into that for my dystopic timeline and I would like to create a situation that feels believable.

If not!Barbarossa manages to surprise Stalin like it did in OTL (but starting in the Baltic States) than the fall of Leningrad is very likely even if Army Group North gets no extra troops.

The "problem" is that the Baltic States were deep in the Soviet sphere of interest. If the Germans would invade the Baltic States the Soviets would be on high alert and a surprise attack is out of the picture.

So I am looking for a M-R Pact type of deal where the Soviets accept a German invasion of the Baltic States.

What could (and would) a (slightly more "sane" but still evil) Nazi Germany "offer"?

-A larger part of Poland ?
-More concessions on the Balkans?
 

Deleted member 97083

The original Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact included Lithuania in the planned German sphere of influence.
 
As was said before, Lithuania was originally in the German sphere according to the M-R Pact, in exchange for the Soviets having a larger part of Poland (almost up to Warsaw) and some money. However, even with the original pact in place, I can't really see a German invasion of Lithuania - because the Nazis held Klaipėda, Lithuania was economically dependent on them and would likely be "vassalized" within a few years, much like Hungary was also dominated by the Germans and ended up tied close to them.

Germany could achieve everything they wanted regarding Lithuania without spending a single drop of Wehrmacht blood.
 
As was said before, Lithuania was originally in the German sphere according to the M-R Pact, in exchange for the Soviets having a larger part of Poland (almost up to Warsaw) and some money. However, even with the original pact in place, I can't really see a German invasion of Lithuania - because the Nazis held Klaipėda, Lithuania was economically dependent on them and would likely be "vassalized" within a few years, much like Hungary was also dominated by the Germans and ended up tied close to them.

Germany could achieve everything they wanted regarding Lithuania without spending a single drop of Wehrmacht blood.

Not almost, according to originall R-M Pact right-bank Warsaw was in Soviet sphere, which would be quite problematic to Stalin-how to justify annexation of Lublin and part of Warsaw to Ukrainian and Belarussian SSR? Stalin would need to estabilish Polish (or Eastern Polish) SSR. But even after OTL September Campaign, after German sphere was pushed east, from Vistula to Bug, Germans get Suwalki Triangle to have better access to Lithuania, which they still wanted.
 
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