The German merchant-submarines

@MichaelWest
I think that if the Germans get some imput into what the others are thinking then they will likely act different then OTL. And while I understand that there is a trend to think all reactions of the Germans are because they are "idiots", I personaly think that they simply worked in an information vacuum.
So if they have some access to information on the "outside world" I think that that will influence how they percive their own actions.
 
It appears that the Deutschland was built as a private venture with plans to have more built in the USA. So could Hapag sell off interned merchant ships to raise Dollars to pay for their construction? And if built how does that advance the American submarine technology and industry?

If we have seven of these each making a 6-day round trip with at least one getting deeper maintenance so only six are effectively running cargo, how big an effect is that? I estimate 2,100 tons of cargo per month on average (690 tons of that rubber). Plus mail, persons, gemstones, ciphers and other things that are likely impossible to transmit otherwise. Is that enough to offset the blockade impact in the critical materials? And with this higher effort how much more does the RN target them?

At first blush it seems just six active ships could begin to unravel the blockade enough that it is perceived lost, further aggravating Anglo-American tensions, lessen the isolation German had in news and diplomacy, a rather good use of the resources. As it stood I think patience with blockade was stretching thin, if Wilson cuts credit in 1916 as he did and keeps that in play, do we get Germany an opening to negotiate before getting desperate for victory (assuming some sane head grasps the ring)?

The Deutschland took 15 days one way, on her first trip, and 22 days on her second trip, with a damaged bow, so a 6 day round trip is right out!

The idea of a small force of commerce subs plying trade back and forth, immune to the strategic materials blockade, and supplying all the raw materials of the German war effort is realistic and doable, but sending U-boats to sink merchantmen just outside US waters kills the deal.

Wikipedia said:
Deutschland departed on her first voyage to the US on 23 June 1916 passing undetected through the English Channel she arrived in Baltimore on 9 July 1916 (some sources say 7 July) after just over two weeks at sea.

A photograph by Karle Netzer dates the arrival 10 July (erreichte Baltimore Hafen 10 Juli 1916). During their stay in the US, the German crewmen were welcomed as celebrities for their astonishing journey and even taken to fancy dinners. American submarine pioneer Simon Lake visited Deutschland while she was in Baltimore, and made an agreement with representatives of the North German Lloyd line to build cargo submarines in the US, a project which never came to fruition.

She stayed at Baltimore until 2 August, when she sailed for Bremerhaven, arriving on 24 August with a cargo of 341 tons of nickel, 93 tons of tin, and 348 tons of crude rubber (257 tons of which were carried outside the pressure hull). Her cargo was valued at $17.5 million, several times the submarine's construction costs. She had traveled 8,450 nmi (15,650 km; 9,720 mi), having been submerged for 190 nmi (350 km; 220 mi) of them.
 
@MichaelWest
I think that if the Germans get some imput into what the others are thinking then they will likely act different then OTL. And while I understand that there is a trend to think all reactions of the Germans are because they are "idiots", I personaly think that they simply worked in an information vacuum.
So if they have some access to information on the "outside world" I think that that will influence how they percive their own actions.

although I do believe Germany was beset by its share of idiots, sadly too often actually influencing events, I agree, some measure of German action or inaction can be attributed to their lack of genuine information as well as inability to communicate out their side of this story. A better diplomatic exchange, sharing of news, reading American news, all combined may indeed alter German decision making. We know they hesitated on USW more than once in reaction to American pressures, perhaps with some building trade here the perception that the USA is really just an Entente stooge evaporates. My goal is to find those butterflies that can alter the war subtlety rather than massively, so one I ind nteresting is not having the Magdeburg code books be recovered, it weakens without undoing the British cipher breaking and coded message reading, another is this use of submarines, such things can degrade the Entente war effort enough perhaps to stagnate the war and open us to the likely best outcome, a cold peace, without victor or vanquished the post-war era can be less destined to play out as it did.
The Deutschland took 15 days one way, on her first trip, and 22 days on her second trip, with a damaged bow, so a 6 day round trip is right out!

The idea of a small force of commerce subs plying trade back and forth, immune to the strategic materials blockade, and supplying all the raw materials of the German war effort is realistic and doable, but sending U-boats to sink merchantmen just outside US waters kills the deal.
Should have read 60 my Bluetooth keyboard drops letters to my annoyance.
 
although I do believe Germany was beset by its share of idiots.

Some would argue that the best thing about West Germany is that the Prussian militarism part of the country was not included. Allowing them to have a fresh start and make better decisions going forward. Some of the "idiot" part of Germany may be that there were unified and then led by the Prussian part (militarist and reactionary). Or maybe its just about both the British and USA speak English and inherently understand each other better.

Regardless it sounds like that Germany is going to have to not do submarine commerce warfare off the USA coast at all to avoid annoying the USA (which in 1916 was still prize rules even), to be able to continue to do submarine merchant trade. This is not just about avoiding unrestricted, but prize rules. Not sure what drove to sink ships off of USA shores in late 1916, other than "lookie what we can do". The travel time alone probably makes it an inefficient way to sink tonnage.
 
If the Germans have a fleet of merchant submarines, some of which were built in the USA, starting early on, this inevitably increases pro-German feeling in the USA. While the amount of cargo involved is small compared to that with the Entente, but it is high value. On top of that, this continuing trade will make loans to Germany, which did occur, be carried on at a higher level as there is trade and cargoes for some level of security. If merchant submarines are being built in US yards, that is another source of better feelings towards Germany.

Attempts to sabotage either cargoes or submarines under construction by British agents is not unrealistic, especially if the transfer of key materials is seen as helpful to Germany (adequate quantities getting through). If any of that is caught, or a merchant U-boat tracked from inside US waters that might rebound against the Entente. Especially early on segments of the US were unhappy with the blockade which was distant not close, included shipments to neutral ports (and manifested to neutral companies), and with a list of "contraband" that included pretty much everything.
 
As an alternative or even an augmentation to the idea of making a small fleet of merchant submarines, how about using the Zeppelin's for the use of hauling goods to the USA. They can make the trip (proven) and have a useful load of 9,100 kg (20,100lb)...I know I know, 10 tons isn't a lot but it could be useful from the propaganda effect.

Flying over/around and diving under the British blockade would completely undermine the blockade and keep the stories flowing into the US papers from the German side of things.
 
The 1916-1917 Zeppelins didn't have that range. (have to go between war Graf Zeppelin and Hindenburg). L59 tried the East Africa run in October 1917, but it was to be a one way trip, and you could use the Nile as a navigation landmark.
 
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Attempts to sabotage either cargoes or submarines under construction by British agents is not unrealistic, especially if the transfer of key materials is seen as helpful to Germany (adequate quantities getting through). If any of that is caught, or a merchant U-boat tracked from inside US waters that might rebound against the Entente. Especially early on segments of the US were unhappy with the blockade which was distant not close, included shipments to neutral ports (and manifested to neutral companies), and with a list of "contraband" that included pretty much everything.

I can't imagine the British would risk the awful PR of sabotage in American yards, The Brits are getting much in loans and unrestricted access to USA markets already, would not want to risk that.

I imagine that the British would just have to tolerate a low level trade in strategic manufacturing materials, and hope a food blockade and bulk materials blockade would be enough. Its not until March 17 the the Allies would really start to be worried about losing the war in general, when Russia is obviously fading away, more quickly than OTL is the USA is neutral. If the USA is neutral in July 1917, Russia will have to make peace without OTL USA loans. The Allies will have to take a USA moderated peace at that time or risk fighting on without Russia OR USA.
 
You are correct, through the H-Class (1913's built) they didn't have the range.

L59 went 4,200 miles (6,800 km) in 95 hours but had enough fuel for an additional 64 hours of flight and held 15 tons of cargo.

Staaken Germany to New York is 3,961miles so it is doable.

The P-Class flew in May 1915 (most upgraded to Q-Class in late 1915 with more power) and had a 4,200 mile endurance.
 
You are correct, through the H-Class (1913's built) they didn't have the range.

L59 went 4,200 miles (6,800 km) in 95 hours but had enough fuel for an additional 64 hours of flight and held 15 tons of cargo.

Staaken Germany to New York is 3,961miles so it is doable.

The P-Class flew in May 1915 (most upgraded to Q-Class in late 1915 with more power) and had a 4,200 mile endurance.

It would be another propaganda moment, the Germans would have to pick an interesting route to avoid enemy held territory. The 15 tons of cargo is the limiting factor.

In both cases of sub or airship, it seems Spain or the Canaries or Spanish Sahara could be set up as supply points, 15 tons is almost like smuggling level quantities the British wouldn't notice. Or even a propaganda trip to the Ottoman empire, bringing in supplies to supply constrained Syria and return bringing out cotton or olives or whatever is grown locally.

Propaganda matters in a no USA war, because you have to convince the British its not worth going on and make peace.
 
From a book no longer in my library on the history of propaganda but read numerous time. Imperial Germany - a very militarised society - could not get its head around a very different, very civilian society i.e. the United States.
1. The execution of nurse Edith Cavell most of the world was up in arms over the occurrence an almost simultaneous execution of two German nurses by the French in drew the response from a German officer responsible for foreign propaganda "They broke the laws of war, why should we protest."
2. At one point the Germany Ambassador to the US was trying to bring to light plight of the German people caused by the Allied blockade (meatless days, and other food reduced in availability) the German Govt was escorting US reporters around Germany showing how the reduced food ration was actually healthier and not causing any hardship.
3. Germany was complaining bitterly about civilian snipers killing German troops (which was usually German troops accidentally shooting each other) forgetting that the history of the American Revolution is based around civilians fighting off a professional army and navy.
Not forgetting that the shortest transit time for the submarines was 15 days, any news that they bring has long been superceded in the public minds by the 15 subsequent days of cable news from Britain and French almost as it happened.
 
The 1916-1917 Zeppelins didn't have that range. (have to go between war Graf Zeppelin and Hindenburg). L59 tried the East Africa run in October 1917, but it was to be a one way trip, and you could use the Nile as a navigation landmark.

Zeppelin's were fragile, the chances of them making it across the Atlantic and back were slim...
 
[QUOTE="Colin Haggett, post: 18397374, member: 108508]
3. Germany was complaining bitterly about civilian snipers killing German troops (which was usually German troops accidentally shooting each other) forgetting that the history of the American Revolution is based around civilians fighting off a professional army and navy.[/QUOTE]
Leaving aside that the French army and navy were the deciding factors in the American Rebellion: the German reaction to 'Franc tireurs' was that the French hanged their German counterparts in Napoleon's time. Bismark (?) is said to have commented that trees in Germany still had marks of the ropes the French used to hang German irregulars caught shooting at French troops. In modern times we have the terrorist/freedom fighter dichotomy.
 
You are correct, through the H-Class (1913's built) they didn't have the range.

L59 went 4,200 miles (6,800 km) in 95 hours but had enough fuel for an additional 64 hours of flight and held 15 tons of cargo.

Staaken Germany to New York is 3,961miles so it is doable.

The P-Class flew in May 1915 (most upgraded to Q-Class in late 1915 with more power) and had a 4,200 mile endurance.

I remember reading on the zeppelin mission to Africa - the airships were surprisingly delicate in flight. such that the longer the trip the more unserviceable the zeppelin became.
 
Some would argue that the best thing about West Germany is that the Prussian militarism part of the country was not included. Allowing them to have a fresh start and make better decisions going forward. Some of the "idiot" part of Germany may be that there were unified and then led by the Prussian part (militarist and reactionary). Or maybe its just about both the British and USA speak English and inherently understand each other better.

Regardless it sounds like that Germany is going to have to not do submarine commerce warfare off the USA coast at all to avoid annoying the USA (which in 1916 was still prize rules even), to be able to continue to do submarine merchant trade. This is not just about avoiding unrestricted, but prize rules. Not sure what drove to sink ships off of USA shores in late 1916, other than "lookie what we can do". The travel time alone probably makes it an inefficient way to sink tonnage.

I tend to believe that "Prussian Militarism" is as much myth as fact, another propaganda and caricature legacy rather than true cause. The German view was that Britain was already an enemy by 1914 despite Wilhelm's hopeful dynast vision that being related to the British Crown made Germany a natural friend to the British. The same pessimism befell the USA, not wrong given that the USA by deed surely supported the Entente war effort. Wilson sought to elevate the USA and the American culture to top-tier status, indeed he was aiming to become Number One, the rightful destiny of America, his policy was to force a mediated peace as he saw Germany still winning and undefeated, I would argue that the go to war choice is driven by the refusal of the Entente to let Wilson craft the peace and the perception that Germany might actually win, after 1916 it is German strength that brought Wilson in, but his dream was to craft the peace and leave the USA master of the LoN, thus master of the new world order. That dream only came to fruition after WW2 since the average American actually had no interest and Wilson was playing a game supported by no one. I see it as the greatest challenge in improving Germany's war effort, the more it can get a cold peace or mild victory the deeper Wilson is tied to defeating Germany as the second power, Germany is the key to unseating the British for the USA. That is my theory of Wilson as OTL's "great man."

A cruiser submarine program aimed to effect prize rules far enough out that the British cannot effectively oppose was I think the plan, that runs afoul of American desire to profit freely from the war only if Germany sinks American flagged ships. The USW campaign is doomed for lack of submarines soon enough, as it was it nearly hit the mark. To steer Germany into no defeat I think the cruiser submarine and commerce submarine are a better alternative, it is not enough to hand her victory but maybe enough to get America off course. For me I think we need Wilson to have a stroke in December of 1916, just after he throttles credit and trade with the Entente, letting the American warship go rudderless, thinking the course is peace.
 
A cruiser submarine program aimed to effect prize rules far enough out that the British cannot effectively oppose was I think the plan, that runs afoul of American desire to profit freely from the war only if Germany sinks American flagged ships. The USW campaign is doomed for lack of submarines soon enough, as it was it nearly hit the mark. To steer Germany into no defeat I think the cruiser submarine and commerce submarine are a better alternative, it is not enough to hand her victory but maybe enough to get America off course. For me I think we need Wilson to have a stroke in December of 1916, just after he throttles credit and trade with the Entente, letting the American warship go rudderless, thinking the course is peace.

Even with Wilson still around meddling, it seems, the Germans avoiding February 1917 USW and the not doing the Zimmerman telegram seems like it would be enough to keep the USA out of active fighting, even if Wilson and USA business interests are all for it, Congress still has to declare war.

(on the caricature legacy part the Germans sure made it all too easy for Allied propaganda in both wars, and even after, with the spiked helmets and monocles, etc. Its why that old show Hogans Heros is so funny)
 
Even with Wilson still around meddling, it seems, the Germans avoiding February 1917 USW and the not doing the Zimmerman telegram seems like it would be enough to keep the USA out of active fighting, even if Wilson and USA business interests are all for it, Congress still has to declare war.

(on the caricature legacy part the Germans sure made it all too easy for Allied propaganda in both wars, and even after, with the spiked helmets and monocles, etc. Its why that old show Hogans Heros is so funny)

Indeed, OTL I think it is too often taken for granted that the USA will enter the war, there is a reason the separation of powers was effected, to slow any President and force Congress to deliberate, in 1917 we could see just enough pressure taken off that Congress does not vote with Wilson assuming he still sees things as he did. In my meddling I have Magdeburg miss her grounding or the Russians simply fail to get the code books, it alone does not turn the tables for Germany but lets the HSF operate more closely to a war game, first the British must find them, and that wastes a lot of resources and leads to more accidental engagements, the naval war is more draining. For me it keeps the Battleship Admirals happy, as it was submarines only got the green light after Jutland proved the British could not be surprised and taken piece meal. If I add these merchant submarines I think the same draw on resources for lighter forces occurs, here to chase down submarines still, but more needle in the haystack as well as further aggravating Anglo-American relations. They hold open the lines of diplomacy enough to sideline the hair-brained machinations of Zimmerman while weakening the blockade. Add in a shift from forcing a decision West to pressing East and I think Germany is in position by end of 1916 to negotiate a peace or gamble on the victory. That is as far as I think can be safely mapped, beyond that it is a coin toss and chaos all around.

We indulge in cultural caricatures to reaffirm our notion of superiority, we cannot go to war with people we take seriously or respect now can we? Germany certainly played the part of silent film villain well, and for America it allowed for the cultural assimilation of all the remainder Europeans, leaving us white washed WASP, a bland nation of caricatures ourselves. I am still curious how the USA might evolve without the Angloization of German Americans and a Germany not ridiculed into the corner but rather the number two industrial power with the lead in nearly all fields of applied sciences, manufacturing and industry, endless adding patents and research that advance science and engineering, a world where America is not a big glowing neon number one. The more I ponder it the more I see America grow up vastly different.
 
The Madeburg scenario also produces a bunch of shot up little British coastal cities, maybe some British politicians fall because of that. Those new politicians could mess up.

America seems to have a bunch of cowboy culture at least in the rural areas i am more familiar with. Perhaps in the cities people will be more proud of the ethnicity especially if their german. But in the plains and the South I suspect it wont change much. For black Americans it could be worse as the wars, the eventual integration of the military, forced some changes.

But if you can figure out how to get rid of much of the 60s and 70s maybe it's better.
 
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The proposition USW led to U.S. entry is mistaken. Recall the Zimmerman telegram.

Also recall the U.S. had large financial interests in France & Britain, so a strong bias. News from Germany is unlikey to change that.
 
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