The General Election of October 4th 2007

A lot would depend on what happens and in what order. Does Cameron make his barnstorming conference speech? When does Brown announce the election? Etc

P.S, I assume you're hinting at a November election here. Brown didn't rule out holding an election until the 6th (IIRC) of October. So assuming he announced the election on the back of Conference, you'd be looking at a very late October minimum date.
 

hammo1j

Donor
Brown would win easy if he allowed the UK a referendum on the latest EU treaty however he would not want to unless pushed because he had been promised a job after PM in return for getting it through Parliament without a referendum which would probably result in a resounding 'Non' vote.

Without a referendum it would be a close run thing with Brown getting a reduced majority. Then we would have 5 years of stagnation instead of the 3 we are going to get. The difference would be that Cameron would be ditched and possibly replaced with a Thatcher MkII. Nick Herbert might be Tory opposition leader now in another reality!
 
British public opinion is hostile to the EU because of media hostility- however it is NOT an issue which will shift many floating votes.

I chose October 4th based on that being voting day. It assumes that Brown called it in time to in effect cancel all the Party conferences. The anouncment would have been early September, or even very late August.
 
Last year? A Conservative minority government propped up by the Lib Dems (because they're not stupid enough to support a Labour government that lost).

A majority is possible, I suppose, but it's only in the last couple months that Labour has collapsed, back then the Conservatives would win—just not big.
 

Thande

Donor
I don't think the Tories would win. Remember the Brown Bounce, everyone. Labour's majority would be reduced to 30-40. Cameron's momentum would stall, but his party would stick with him, as they are committed to the project.

This was at the height of Ming Campbell being isolated and attacked, though. Potentially the Lib Dems could pick up a protest vote and perform quite well, which might shut up Ming's critics for a while.

Assuming the fusillade of disasters happens like OTL, the 2007 election would probably be remembered like the 1992 one - a poisoned chalice.
 
It was the height of the artificial Brown bounce.

The public entirely understood that Brown was willing to call a very early election simply because his poll numbers looked good—and that caused his numbers to drop shortly thereafter.

I'm willing to bet Labour collapses if he calls an election, as I imagine the same incredibly stupid public musings about an unneeded election based on poll numbers still happens.
 

hammo1j

Donor
British public opinion is hostile to the EU because of media hostility- however it is NOT an issue which will shift many floating votes.

The Scum did a poll around about Election Fever time and it shown the Grodon would romp home if there was a referendum at the same time as the election.

I agree with you that the media deliberately inflames opinion because the EU laws on media ownership will never be as generous as those of the UK, but national sovereignty is an issue regardless.

Interestingly with a full term Labour probably would have toughed out the 10% tax band fiasco.
 
The election would have been on November 8th or the 15th.
The hype was allowed to get out of control, then with that fact the Tories had a good party Conference, and Brown's ill-judged trip to Iraqto annouce troop reductions that had already been annouced the tide started to turn against him.
Even if he had still gone ahead after this, I think he would a very small majority say 3-10 seats, like Wilson in 1964.
 
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