Part of the butterflies from Italy not being in WW2 is that Italo Balbo does not die in 1940. Now, not only was he as governor of Libya urging 30-50K migration per year to the Fourth Shore but he opposed the anti-Jewish race laws. He also opposed the alliance with Hitler so if Italy stayed neutral then one could guess his influence is higher than OTL ( yes , I know he was sent to Libya as a form of Exile by Mussolini but there would potentially be a greater need to keep him sweet and out of Italy ).
This would suggest a driver for increased settler numbers with potentially a lot of Jews fleeing to a protector, Italian Libya was already about 3.5% Jewish ( rest was around 13.5% Italian,80%+ Arab ) so its not as if its too outlandish for them to be funneled to Africa . This would lead to potentially a non-arab majority by mid 1950's ( Italian policy included encouraging emigration of Arabs to free up space for settlers ).
In such a scenario then decolonization just does not happen, if anything the Arab population withers away to 20-30% as the coastal belt is overrun by settlers.
This would suggest a driver for increased settler numbers with potentially a lot of Jews fleeing to a protector, Italian Libya was already about 3.5% Jewish ( rest was around 13.5% Italian,80%+ Arab ) so its not as if its too outlandish for them to be funneled to Africa . This would lead to potentially a non-arab majority by mid 1950's ( Italian policy included encouraging emigration of Arabs to free up space for settlers ).
In such a scenario then decolonization just does not happen, if anything the Arab population withers away to 20-30% as the coastal belt is overrun by settlers.