The future of Austria-Hungary without WWI

If Franz Ferdinand is still assassinated in 1914 but WWI is avoided afterwards, would Hungary still try to secede in 1917 under Kaiser Karl?

No. neither the elite, neither the masses were in favor of the secession. What for?
(I tend to view the political situation, aims, demands, etc trough '48 and the original 12 points https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/12_points_of_the_Hungarian_Revolutionaries_of_1848 pretty much fulfilled. No need for secession. Reforms, further reforms on the other hand...)

Don't forget all the German (Austrian) areas dotted around - they wouldn't take kindly to being given away.
You_Doodle_2017_01_01_T12_08_29_Z.jpg


For reference, the red areas are those with a German majority, orange Romanian and green Hungarian.

With the exception of the Transylvanian saxons (and by this time, it was not that granted either) the germans in Hungary was extremely loyal. To Hungary.
(And we deported them after ww2. Yet again a stupid disgrace on our part.)

If you want ethnic maps from the period, i recommend the carte rouge: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipe...map_of_hungary_1910_by_teleki_carte_rouge.jpg - factoring in population size, uninhabited territories etc. Nightmarish :)
And, without ww1, it does not matter. At all.
The problems, the constant problems with at least Hungary pre ww1 were not ethnic, or to be more precise, ethnic problems were dwarfed by the economical, social, political problems (the two main real ethnic problem was the education system - with a nice religious twist - and the amok run of the hungarian ban in croatia - with a nice economic twist).

And here we arrived:
Its future would have looked troubled, and probably not too long.

The idea that Franz Ferdinand wanted democratization or federalization is a common mistake. He was a reactionary through and through; he didn't intend to elevate anyone's rights, only to bring the Hungarians (whom he hated) down so he can pursue his dreams of neo-absolutism. Franz Ferdinand's assassination removed one of the biggest immediate threats to the empire's stability and existence: the likely event of him trying to implement his ridiculous ideas and causing a chain reaction which unravels the empire.

So, instead of FF trying to beat the Hungarians (and everyone else) into submission, you have the 1917 Ausgleich renegotiation overseen by Franz Joseph or Karl. In other words: by someone sane, if not terribly clever. There is a lot shouting and hair pulling, but eventually the Austrians and Hungarians reach a compromise and the empire shambles on towards 1927, assuming it doesn't get involved in any wars.

FF's death will be somewhat of a setback for the clique of Greater Austrian militarists and reactionaries - he was, after all, their poster child and spiritual liege. But they may try to mount a comeback through Karl, who was kind of Franz Ferdinand Lite. If they do, things may get pretty ugly. The Hungarian ruling elites were not the worst faction in Austria-Hungary, not by a long shot.

The south Slavic lands keep simmering, and are soon joined by the escalation of other flashpoints of discontent like Transylvania. Together with the Austrian-Hungarian rivalry, they set the stage for the next series of crises.

FF was anything, but a progressive, democratic thinker. Absolutist, to the core, just like good ole FJI. But, he at least seemed more capable, at least compared to FJI - not a big achievement by the way.
Would he had installed a third -slavic - crown, that would have been an absolutist crown. No good for the slovakian harvesters striking - again.

Karl was somewhat below the level of Ferdinand - the gnüdige one. Im quite sure, that after a few... hours a silent putsch would have been executed to relegate him and the crown to ceremonial duties only. And after that, the real fight, between the SPD, the agrarian parties, the liberals and the reactionary elites could have began.
 
My knowledge of the underlying personalities and forces at work is still quite thin but in my feel for A-H I agree that the Germans and Hungarians appreciated they needed each other to survive. Aside from the usual ego trip the Germans indulged in, German Austrians had no real nationalism, once A-H collapsed they lost gravity and assumed they were just Germans and logically would be subsumed in the Reich. The Hungarians for their bravado were themselves a kludge with fractures only the over arch mythos of "Hapsburg-ness" seemed to glue together.

Obviously the Slavs felt both abused and drawn to assemble with other fragments of their peoples but I suspect without the redraw of maps had no illusions they would just be so many broken fragments. I tend to agree that reform would come, it had to, otherwise A-H disintegrates, and I fear that A-H possessed no set of strong personalities who also possessed a vision to equalize the populations long-term to bind them rather than divide them. Multi-cultural and multi-ethnic seems far easier to weld than multi-lingual, A-H had truly accomplished something in crafting as much unity as it did, somewhere in there was success that might be just a straw but without the war there is every reason to imagine how the straw gets another clutch.

As much as I like to imagine A-H becoming a proto-EU, my guess is that with time the thing devolves to a cluster of tiny states, at best sharing a common tariff boundary, common Army more localized, and coordinated foreign policy, even this might break into the micro-states as everyone yearns to be independent. Given a generation of this and no wholesale conquest by other powers, once again the sense of community may piece it back together. That might be best case, a period of independence puts new meaning to cooperation. One hopes it does not require a war to put perspective to division and difference.
 
FF was anything, but a progressive, democratic thinker. Absolutist, to the core, just like good ole FJI. But, he at least seemed more capable, at least compared to FJI - not a big achievement by the way.
Would he had installed a third -slavic - crown, that would have been an absolutist crown. No good for the slovakian harvesters striking - again.

Karl was somewhat below the level of Ferdinand - the gnüdige one. Im quite sure, that after a few... hours a silent putsch would have been executed to relegate him and the crown to ceremonial duties only. And after that, the real fight, between the SPD, the agrarian parties, the liberals and the reactionary elites could have began.

Agreed - for Franz Ferdinand, two crowns was already too many. All his roads were meant to lead to one place - one crown; one emperor, ruling through the army and the aristocracy; powerless and defanged parliaments, or no parliaments at all. In FF's own words: "The autocratic system of Russia is the best form of government I can imagine."

It's not like he even intended a third Slavic crown. He briefly flirted with the idea of Trialism, but fully abandoned it around 1905.
And in all of FF's drafts, programs, schemes and manifestos - there didn't appear to be any mention of land reform. Endless pages about the army, ending dualism and so on, but pretty much 0 attention to economic problems. So yeah, no good for the Slovak harvesters...nor for anyone else, mostly.


My impression of Karl is that he was a low-energy Franz Ferdinand, in both good and bad ways. Conservative, but not a full absolutist like FF. Disliked Hungarians, Jews, Freemasons and God knows who else, but not in a frothing-at-the-mouth way like FF. A bit stupid, maybe, but not necessarily worse than FF (who was certainly a sharp mind - so sharp he could have cut himself and the whole empire).
 
I see no reason for AH to collapse as long as the army haven't collapsed. But we will likely see AH to go from crisis to crisis political at least in the short term, but as long as a war doesn't destabilise the empire, there's too much to lose for the different actors of the empire.

The Austro-Germans risk going from being dominating in their own empire to become a backwater of Germany.
The Hungarians risk not having the Austrians to back them.
The Czech risk becoming part of Germany.
The Poles risk ending up under the Russians
The Ruthenians risk Russian or Polish overlords
etc.

The only people who really had a interest in the collapse of the Empire was the Italians and Serbs

But in the longer term we will likely see the empire fully industrialise, this will likely be thing saving the empire from the continued crisis, as the urbanisation coming together with industrialiosation will bring workers from different ethnic groups together and likely will result in the rise of a united Social Democratic party, the rise of a major pan-Austrian party will force the rise of other pan-Austrian parties, as the conservative and liberal-agrarian will have to band together in their own parties against the rising working class.

Demographic AH will likely be quite different from the region in OTL, for one thing the Germans doesn't see OTL losses. On average I imagine that we can imagine the population double in size to around 100 people. One aspect of this are we will likely see Vienna expand to at least 10% of the population, but both Paris and London metropolitan area have around 20% of their countries population. A Vienna with a metropolitan area of 10-20 million people are quite likely. The people migrate to Vienna will be made up of people from all over the empire, but their children will end up German speakers. So let's take the extreme case the 20 million people Vienna Metropolitan Area, which likely include most of Lower Austria, Bradislava and northern Burgenland. Let's say that we count these as German speakers. The rest of Austria will likely have slightly higher population than in OTL so instead of the 5 million people living in the rest of the territory, we will likely see 7-8 million. This includes South Tyrol. Czechia will likely stay 1/3 German, but the population ot it will likely increase to 15 million, which gives us 5 million extra Germans. We will likely see the German speaking population falling in percent in "Hungary" so let's say that it stay stable at 2 million. Galicia will likely have around 10% Jewish population, these will likely be counted as Germans, through it's not impossible that the Jewish population increase. Bukovina will likely end up majority German speaking, both because a high Jewish population, but also because the urbanisation will bring diverse group together in the few urban area of the duchy. These two gives us 2 million German speakers. Beside that we will likely see a the Istrian coast become a vacation and retirement centre for the population of Vienna, so we will likely see the local Italians reduce to a small minority and creating a German speaking majority on the peninsula together with Triest it will likely give us a million German extra. This all builnd on a positive calculation of te empire's population.

But it give us 38 million German speakers in a empire of 100 million people, all without having changed the linguistic border of the empire outside Austrian Littoral. Are this 100% the way it would go, I'm not sure, but it's realistic scenario for the demographic development of AH. We can imagine that it will give some problems, if we see this increase in the dominant ethnicity and it become so connected to the capital.
 
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My impression of Karl is that he was a low-energy Franz Ferdinand, in both good and bad ways. Conservative, but not a full absolutist like FF. Disliked Hungarians, Jews, Freemasons and God knows who else, but not in a frothing-at-the-mouth way like FF. A bit stupid, maybe, but not necessarily worse than FF (who was certainly a sharp mind - so sharp he could have cut himself and the whole empire).

Could not really add to this other than my low opinion of Karl, who was after all, not that important in his life an in history.

And yes, again, for everyone: FF was an idiot, a dangerous reactionary idiot, not a reformer as sometimes history books painting him.
 

Deleted member 94680

I see no reason for AH to collapse as long as the army haven't collapsed. But we will likely see AH to go from crisis to crisis political at least in the short term, but as long as a war doesn't destabilise the empire, there's too much to lose for the different actors of the empire.

The Austro-Germans risk going from being dominating in their own empire to become a backwater of Germany.
The Hungarians risk not having the Austrians to back them.
The Czech risk becoming part of Germany.
The Poles risk ending up under the Russians
The Ruthenians risk Russian or Polish overlords
etc.
... snip for brevity, but full of logic ...

@Jürgen gets it. This should be about 1914-era A-H and working forward but without the effects of WWI. Not 1918-era A-H and working backwards to extrapolate.
 
Could not really add to this other than my low opinion of Karl, who was after all, not that important in his life an in history.

And yes, again, for everyone: FF was an idiot, a dangerous reactionary idiot, not a reformer as sometimes history books painting him.
I would place much of the blame on Franz Joseph who along with Nicolas II would have been more at home in the 17th or 18th century than the 19th.
 
FF has one asset everyone continually forgets when speaking of A-H, the East and West Slavs. With some reforms the Czechs would stay loyal, Bohemia as a "third" crown of the Empire would work. The Hungarians might make trouble about FF's reforms but they can't stand against Austria, the Czechs, the very likely to rebel Slovaks, the Poles, the Ukrainians, the Romanians, and the Croatians who are also likely to stay loyal to the Crown. Hungary just doesn't have the power to hold to its independence, let alone its territory. If Romania, or Serbia make a land grab the K.u.K can beat them back. Unlike WWI, Russia is not at war with them, (if Serbia attacks the Russians will stay out as long as they know A-H won't take territorial concessions). Hungary can in no way stand against the rest of the Empire, its unfeasible in the extreme. Not to mention German support which should keep the Italians in line. FF is getting his reforms, and Hungary is finally loosing their power and hopefully their over inflated egos.
 
Nonsense.

Maybe im a little bit too harsh with him, but... nah. He was a real relic, a dinosaur even when eh was young.

FF has one asset everyone continually forgets when speaking of A-H, the East and West Slavs. With some reforms the Czechs would stay loyal, Bohemia as a "third" crown of the Empire would work. The Hungarians might make trouble about FF's reforms but they can't stand against Austria, the Czechs, the very likely to rebel Slovaks, the Poles, the Ukrainians, the Romanians, and the Croatians who are also likely to stay loyal to the Crown. Hungary just doesn't have the power to hold to its independence, let alone its territory. If Romania, or Serbia make a land grab the K.u.K can beat them back. Unlike WWI, Russia is not at war with them, (if Serbia attacks the Russians will stay out as long as they know A-H won't take territorial concessions). Hungary can in no way stand against the rest of the Empire, its unfeasible in the extreme. Not to mention German support which should keep the Italians in line. FF is getting his reforms, and Hungary is finally loosing their power and hopefully their over inflated egos.

What reforms of FF? He did not seemed to do anything meaningful.
 

Deleted member 94680

Maybe im a little bit too harsh with him, but... nah. He was a real relic, a dinosaur even when eh was young.

Sorry, but it's just that whenever I see someone calling Kaiser Wilhelm II "smart" or a "statesman" I tend to call bullshit. This was man who delivered the "Hun Speech", the "Krueger Telegram", gave Austria-Hungary their "blank cheque" and countless other gaffes.
Franz-Joseph was a dinosaur but his overriding concern was to keep the Empire together. His main ruling style - IIRC - was to wait, doing and saying nothing, allowing the parties involved to shout themselves hoarse and resolve the issue amongst themselves before pronouncing judgment on the side that everyone had already agreed was right. He was a reactionary, but only as being reactionary was what was keeping the Empire from falling apart. He kept moderates out of power, but extremists as well.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
FF has one asset everyone continually forgets when speaking of A-H, the East and West Slavs. With some reforms the Czechs would stay loyal, Bohemia as a "third" crown of the Empire would work. The Hungarians might make trouble about FF's reforms but they can't stand against Austria, the Czechs, the very likely to rebel Slovaks, the Poles, the Ukrainians, the Romanians, and the Croatians who are also likely to stay loyal to the Crown. Hungary just doesn't have the power to hold to its independence, let alone its territory. If Romania, or Serbia make a land grab the K.u.K can beat them back. Unlike WWI, Russia is not at war with them, (if Serbia attacks the Russians will stay out as long as they know A-H won't take territorial concessions). Hungary can in no way stand against the rest of the Empire, its unfeasible in the extreme. Not to mention German support which should keep the Italians in line. FF is getting his reforms, and Hungary is finally loosing their power and hopefully their over inflated egos.
Couldn't nationalism still end up being a problem in A-H afterwards, though? After all, even if FF is somehow generous enough to do things such as autonomy or universal suffrage in Hungary, why not try demanding more (specifically full independence)?
 
Maybe im a little bit too harsh with him, but... nah. He was a real relic, a dinosaur even when eh was young.



What reforms of FF? He did not seemed to do anything meaningful.
Assuming he lived, the reforms which he would theoretically have carried out.

Couldn't nationalism still end up being a problem in A-H afterwards, though? After all, even if FF is somehow generous enough to do things such as autonomy or universal suffrage in Hungary, why not try demanding more (specifically full independence)?
Because loyalty to the Hapsburg Crown and also because it wasn't Slavs vs. Magyars vs. Germans. There were many people who were loyal to the Empire from all ethnicities. Many Nations in Austria did not have their own states like Romania or Serbia, and Austria had been or was being good to them. For example the Ukrainians who were known as the Tyroleans of the East for their loyalty to the Empire. While Czechs, Slovaks, Poles, and Ukrainians all performed poorly on the Italian and balkan fronts, when defending their lands from the Russians they fought with excellent morale, vise versa for Slovenians, and Croats when on the Eastern Front. People also tend to forget the "Nationalization" of the Hapsburg family itself. By 1914, there were definitively Polish Hapsburgs and a Ukrainian Hapsburg Archduke. The Hapsburgs were evolving with the times, with different National branches. This would and IOTL did to some extent resulted in the strengthening of the loyalty of the people's in question as they felt the Empire and the Royal Family began to reflect its subjects much more than before. Combine that with FF's reforms and the Slavs(except maybe the Serbs) will be firmly loyal to the Empire. The Italians, Serbs, and Romanians will always have been a pain, however one that could be mitigated to a large extent domestically at least.
 
FF has one asset everyone continually forgets when speaking of A-H, the East and West Slavs. With some reforms the Czechs would stay loyal, Bohemia as a "third" crown of the Empire would work. The Hungarians might make trouble about FF's reforms but they can't stand against Austria, the Czechs, the very likely to rebel Slovaks, the Poles, the Ukrainians, the Romanians, and the Croatians who are also likely to stay loyal to the Crown. Hungary just doesn't have the power to hold to its independence, let alone its territory. If Romania, or Serbia make a land grab the K.u.K can beat them back. Unlike WWI, Russia is not at war with them, (if Serbia attacks the Russians will stay out as long as they know A-H won't take territorial concessions). Hungary can in no way stand against the rest of the Empire, its unfeasible in the extreme. Not to mention German support which should keep the Italians in line. FF is getting his reforms, and Hungary is finally loosing their power and hopefully their over inflated egos.

The Ukrainians - maybe; but Poles have a huge historical brotherhood type relationship with Hungarians. It's hard to imagine them going to war against Hungary, let alone going to war with any degree of loyalty and enthusiasm.

The Serbs will side with Hungary in a heartbeat. The Croats will be bitterly divided, and further hampered by being interconnected with Serbs.

The Slovaks and Romanians may be inclined to fight against Hungary - but fighting against Hungary and fighting for Vienna are two very different things. The lessons of 1848 still ring true, and they've had an opportunity to relearn them again and again throughout Franz Joseph's reign.

Maybe the Czechs could have been made loyal with certain reforms, but who's going to enact those reforms? And when? OP's scenario involves FF dying in Sarajevo; but even if he lives, the man was a rabid reactionary, not some promoter of Slavic rights...as it stands, ordering Czechs to die fighting against Hungarian separatism would have likely resulted in riots, strikes, and mutinies around every corner. If not in something even bigger. Same with the Italians.
 

Deleted member 94680

Traditionally reforms came after a crisis. Something would have to happen to force the Empire's hand to give just enough reform to keep it on an even keel. That's the way it happened up until 1914 and Franz Joseph was pretty good at playing that game.
 
The Ukrainians - maybe; but Poles have a huge historical brotherhood type relationship with Hungarians. It's hard to imagine them going to war against Hungary, let alone going to war with any degree of loyalty and enthusiasm.

The Serbs will side with Hungary in a heartbeat. The Croats will be bitterly divided, and further hampered by being interconnected with Serbs.

The Slovaks and Romanians may be inclined to fight against Hungary - but fighting against Hungary and fighting for Vienna are two very different things. The lessons of 1848 still ring true, and they've had an opportunity to relearn them again and again throughout Franz Joseph's reign.

Maybe the Czechs could have been made loyal with certain reforms, but who's going to enact those reforms? And when? OP's scenario involves FF dying in Sarajevo; but even if he lives, the man was a rabid reactionary, not some promoter of Slavic rights...as it stands, ordering Czechs to die fighting against Hungarian separatism would have likely resulted in riots, strikes, and mutinies around every corner. If not in something even bigger. Same with the Italians.
German parts of Austria should be enough to defeat Hungary especially when/not if the Slovaks/Romanians/Serbs rebel. Russia won't back Serbia attacking Austria, Romania will keep quiet if they know what's good for them. As will the Italians. Remember, the whole Triple Alliance thing, with Germany, Austria is guaranteed to beat Hungary. The Czechs will fall in line, especially if promised reforms. The Poles, well, what alternative to they have? The Russians? Though I doubt they'll take that into account. Sure, let's say the the Poles join the Hungarians. It'll be L'viv 1918, with the roles reversed.

More about the Czechs, they for the most part were loyal to the Empire, when they realize the Hungarians are about to be knocked down a peg they'll jump on board. They can be promised the 'third crown' in a new Triple Monarchy.
 
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