If Franz Ferdinand is still assassinated in 1914 but WWI is avoided afterwards, would Hungary still try to secede in 1917 under Kaiser Karl?
No. neither the elite, neither the masses were in favor of the secession. What for?
(I tend to view the political situation, aims, demands, etc trough '48 and the original 12 points https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/12_points_of_the_Hungarian_Revolutionaries_of_1848 pretty much fulfilled. No need for secession. Reforms, further reforms on the other hand...)
Don't forget all the German (Austrian) areas dotted around - they wouldn't take kindly to being given away.
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For reference, the red areas are those with a German majority, orange Romanian and green Hungarian.
With the exception of the Transylvanian saxons (and by this time, it was not that granted either) the germans in Hungary was extremely loyal. To Hungary.
(And we deported them after ww2. Yet again a stupid disgrace on our part.)
If you want ethnic maps from the period, i recommend the carte rouge: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipe...map_of_hungary_1910_by_teleki_carte_rouge.jpg - factoring in population size, uninhabited territories etc. Nightmarish
And, without ww1, it does not matter. At all.
The problems, the constant problems with at least Hungary pre ww1 were not ethnic, or to be more precise, ethnic problems were dwarfed by the economical, social, political problems (the two main real ethnic problem was the education system - with a nice religious twist - and the amok run of the hungarian ban in croatia - with a nice economic twist).
And here we arrived:
Its future would have looked troubled, and probably not too long.
The idea that Franz Ferdinand wanted democratization or federalization is a common mistake. He was a reactionary through and through; he didn't intend to elevate anyone's rights, only to bring the Hungarians (whom he hated) down so he can pursue his dreams of neo-absolutism. Franz Ferdinand's assassination removed one of the biggest immediate threats to the empire's stability and existence: the likely event of him trying to implement his ridiculous ideas and causing a chain reaction which unravels the empire.
So, instead of FF trying to beat the Hungarians (and everyone else) into submission, you have the 1917 Ausgleich renegotiation overseen by Franz Joseph or Karl. In other words: by someone sane, if not terribly clever. There is a lot shouting and hair pulling, but eventually the Austrians and Hungarians reach a compromise and the empire shambles on towards 1927, assuming it doesn't get involved in any wars.
FF's death will be somewhat of a setback for the clique of Greater Austrian militarists and reactionaries - he was, after all, their poster child and spiritual liege. But they may try to mount a comeback through Karl, who was kind of Franz Ferdinand Lite. If they do, things may get pretty ugly. The Hungarian ruling elites were not the worst faction in Austria-Hungary, not by a long shot.
The south Slavic lands keep simmering, and are soon joined by the escalation of other flashpoints of discontent like Transylvania. Together with the Austrian-Hungarian rivalry, they set the stage for the next series of crises.
FF was anything, but a progressive, democratic thinker. Absolutist, to the core, just like good ole FJI. But, he at least seemed more capable, at least compared to FJI - not a big achievement by the way.
Would he had installed a third -slavic - crown, that would have been an absolutist crown. No good for the slovakian harvesters striking - again.
Karl was somewhat below the level of Ferdinand - the gnüdige one. Im quite sure, that after a few... hours a silent putsch would have been executed to relegate him and the crown to ceremonial duties only. And after that, the real fight, between the SPD, the agrarian parties, the liberals and the reactionary elites could have began.