Would Kaiser Karl have been willing to implement universal suffrage in Hungary like Franz-Ferdinand apparently was?A-H was pretty messy thing. Without Great War it might last couple decades longer. Nationalism was already rising and Hungary was unwilling to federalisation so shit will fly to fans sooner or latter.
Hungary would be first to be really troublesome and hard to manage,
but not the only problem in the Dual Monarchy. Bohemia, Galicia and the Southern Slavs were all just waiting powderkegs too.
Even if the Empire avoid war, it will still fall apart within a short time-frame. It had been in decline for over a century and ethnic tension was about to its breaking point. The death of emperor Franz Joseph in 1916 removed one of the few things that held the empire together. While the new Emperor could attempt to improve the political conditions of the minority, he would be faced with constant back-lash from the larger ethic groups like the Germans and Hungarians that didn’t want to lose any political control within the Empire.
What do you like Austria-Hungary's future would have looked like without WWI?
Also, FTR, one way to do this would be to have cooler heads prevail both in 1914 (when Franz-Ferdinand was assassinated) and later on as well.
If Franz Ferdinand is still assassinated in 1914 but WWI is avoided afterwards, would Hungary still try to secede in 1917 under Kaiser Karl?All that said, it's not obvious what form the fatal crisis would take. The Ausgleich was due for renewal in 1917; Franz Josef was 84 years old in 1914. Franz Ferdinand had ideas for restructuring the Dual Monarchy to elevate the status of the Slavic elements. This was anathema to the Hungarians, who not only exploited their gerrymandered dominance in the Kingdom of Hungary, but were actively "magyarizing" their Slavic and Romanian minorities. Faced with FF's program, Hungary would refuse to renew the Ausgleich; the minorities in Hungary would rebel, and things could go downhill from there.
Hungary might repudiate the monarchy; FF might seek to enforce his rule. The minorities in Hungary might join FF against the Magyars. Or... the Magyars might cede Transylvania to Romania and Slavonia and Bosnia to Serbia in return for support against Austrian reconquest. The dissolution of Hungary would IMO be followed by the dissolution of the Austrian Empire.
Hungary: maybe, alot depend on the international situation. If Hungary feel secure to leave they'll try. Otherwise they'll just keep pushing for status quo.To the point of Hungary eventually trying to secede?
Would Kaiser Karl have had enough sense to agree to turn Austria-Hungary into a U.S.-style federation in an attempt to deal with these waiting powderkegs?
Hungary might repudiate the monarchy; FF might seek to enforce his rule. The minorities in Hungary might join FF against the Magyars. Or... the Magyars might cede Transylvania to Romania and Slavonia and Bosnia to Serbia in return for support against Austrian reconquest. The dissolution of Hungary would IMO be followed by the dissolution of the Austrian Empire.
eastern Transylvania was Hungarian and quite loyal.
breaking up would cause quite a bit of disconcert in Hungarian controlled areas
this I agree, the magyar elite would be hard pressed to keep all the domains in one piece and I think they new itDon't forget all the German (Austrian) areas dotted around - they wouldn't take kindly to being given away.
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For reference, the red areas are those with a German majority, orange Romanian and green Hungarian.