The future of Austria-Hungary without WWI

CaliGuy

Banned
What do you like Austria-Hungary's future would have looked like without WWI?

Also, FTR, one way to do this would be to have cooler heads prevail both in 1914 (when Franz-Ferdinand was assassinated) and later on as well.
 
A-H was pretty messy thing. Without Great War it might last couple decades longer. Nationalism was already rising and Hungary was unwilling to federalisation so shit will fly to fans sooner or latter.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Hungary would be first to be really troublesome and hard to manage, but not the only problem in the Dual Monarchy. Bohemia, Galicia and the Southern Slavs were all just waiting powderkegs too.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
A-H was pretty messy thing. Without Great War it might last couple decades longer. Nationalism was already rising and Hungary was unwilling to federalisation so shit will fly to fans sooner or latter.
Would Kaiser Karl have been willing to implement universal suffrage in Hungary like Franz-Ferdinand apparently was?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Hungary would be first to be really troublesome and hard to manage,

To the point of Hungary eventually trying to secede?

but not the only problem in the Dual Monarchy. Bohemia, Galicia and the Southern Slavs were all just waiting powderkegs too.

Would Kaiser Karl have had enough sense to agree to turn Austria-Hungary into a U.S.-style federation in an attempt to deal with these waiting powderkegs?
 
Even if the Empire avoid war, it will still fall apart within a short time-frame. It had been in decline for over a century and ethnic tension was about to its breaking point. The death of emperor Franz Joseph in 1916 removed one of the few things that held the empire together. While the new Emperor could attempt to improve the political conditions of the minority, he would be faced with constant back-lash from the larger ethic groups like the Germans and Hungarians that didn’t want to lose any political control within the Empire.
 
Even if the Empire avoid war, it will still fall apart within a short time-frame. It had been in decline for over a century and ethnic tension was about to its breaking point. The death of emperor Franz Joseph in 1916 removed one of the few things that held the empire together. While the new Emperor could attempt to improve the political conditions of the minority, he would be faced with constant back-lash from the larger ethic groups like the Germans and Hungarians that didn’t want to lose any political control within the Empire.

I mean, a lot of that was true in 1648, especially the century of decline, just replace ethnic with religious tension. But it doesn't necessarily follow that "it fell for these reasons, therefore these reasons mean it had to fall". If anything, the war was lost before the Empire was lost, but so long as you have the army and the Hapsburgs as a source of stability, there's an opportunity for necessary reforms. Those just couldn't happen in 1918, and under the circumstances, the Czechs and Italians and others had no incentive to deal with a loser.
 

Deleted member 94680

It was the War and losing it that shook the Empire apart. If there had been no WWI, there's every chance the empire would have found a way through the nationalism crises the way it had through every other crisis to shake it. Federalism is the obvious solution, but autonomy or a review of language laws and ethnicities of civil service in each "area" of the empire would also probably stave it off for a while.

The Austro-Hungarian Empire was nothing if not a compromiser.
 
What do you like Austria-Hungary's future would have looked like without WWI?

Also, FTR, one way to do this would be to have cooler heads prevail both in 1914 (when Franz-Ferdinand was assassinated) and later on as well.

Austria-Hungary was a deeply troubled polity. Not long before WW I, a German statesman lamented that alliance with A-H left Germany "bound to a rotting derelict". The Austrian political system had been in failure mode for decades; the Diet was incapable of "forming a government", and the country was governed by emergency decrees. The "Ausgleich" between Austria and Hungary had to be renewed every ten years, and each renewal was another crisis. It has been argued that Austria-Hungary was held together in its last decades largely by the paternal prestige of the venerable Emperor Franz Josef.

All that said, it's not obvious what form the fatal crisis would take. The Ausgleich was due for renewal in 1917; Franz Josef was 84 years old in 1914. Franz Ferdinand had ideas for restructuring the Dual Monarchy to elevate the status of the Slavic elements. This was anathema to the Hungarians, who not only exploited their gerrymandered dominance in the Kingdom of Hungary, but were actively "magyarizing" their Slavic and Romanian minorities. Faced with FF's program, Hungary would refuse to renew the Ausgleich; the minorities in Hungary would rebel, and things could go downhill from there.

Hungary might repudiate the monarchy; FF might seek to enforce his rule. The minorities in Hungary might join FF against the Magyars. Or... the Magyars might cede Transylvania to Romania and Slavonia and Bosnia to Serbia in return for support against Austrian reconquest. The dissolution of Hungary would IMO be followed by the dissolution of the Austrian Empire.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
All that said, it's not obvious what form the fatal crisis would take. The Ausgleich was due for renewal in 1917; Franz Josef was 84 years old in 1914. Franz Ferdinand had ideas for restructuring the Dual Monarchy to elevate the status of the Slavic elements. This was anathema to the Hungarians, who not only exploited their gerrymandered dominance in the Kingdom of Hungary, but were actively "magyarizing" their Slavic and Romanian minorities. Faced with FF's program, Hungary would refuse to renew the Ausgleich; the minorities in Hungary would rebel, and things could go downhill from there.

Hungary might repudiate the monarchy; FF might seek to enforce his rule. The minorities in Hungary might join FF against the Magyars. Or... the Magyars might cede Transylvania to Romania and Slavonia and Bosnia to Serbia in return for support against Austrian reconquest. The dissolution of Hungary would IMO be followed by the dissolution of the Austrian Empire.
If Franz Ferdinand is still assassinated in 1914 but WWI is avoided afterwards, would Hungary still try to secede in 1917 under Kaiser Karl?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
To the point of Hungary eventually trying to secede?



Would Kaiser Karl have had enough sense to agree to turn Austria-Hungary into a U.S.-style federation in an attempt to deal with these waiting powderkegs?
Hungary: maybe, alot depend on the international situation. If Hungary feel secure to leave they'll try. Otherwise they'll just keep pushing for status quo.

Karl: FF actually wanted a third slaviv crown for the Empire. Not because he liked Slavs, he hated them and what they meant. It was just he couldn't see the Empire surviving with it's huge Slavic population without it. FF also wasn't a big fan of Hungarians. Basically FF was a very reluctant reformer, and it'd be interesting to see how his reign would be. Karl would be somewhat different of course.

And then we have the idiot squad, with Hötzendorf in charge. They believe Germanic supremacy must be preserved and reinforced, and that glorious conquest will keep the troublesome minorities in check.
 
Hungarian lands were more diverse, if Hungary attempts to leave and falls apart, Austria gets better terms from them.
Czech lands might opt to stay as well as croatia.

Hungary needed austria as much as austria needed Hungary for balance.

it's not a given for failure
 

Deleted member 94680

Hungary might repudiate the monarchy; FF might seek to enforce his rule. The minorities in Hungary might join FF against the Magyars. Or... the Magyars might cede Transylvania to Romania and Slavonia and Bosnia to Serbia in return for support against Austrian reconquest. The dissolution of Hungary would IMO be followed by the dissolution of the Austrian Empire.

Not going to happen. Hungary, in an attempt to enforce its rule over its minority areas, gives those minority areas away? Doesn't make sense in the slightest. Giving extra territory to Serbia would ignite a new Balkan War - there's no way Bulgaria is going to stand by and watch Serbia get stronger without recompense and Serbia isn't going to give Bulgaria concessions in Macedonia. It runs counter to everything Hungary stands for to simply give Transylvania to Romania, the Hungarians see Transylvania as Hungarian territory, they don't care about the Romanian majority who live there.

By all means they'll be a crisis, there's always a crisis when it comes to renewing the Augsleich, but in the end the Hungarians know they need the Austrians to maintain their control over their half of the empire. Without the Austrians, the Hungarians are just another nation in the Balkans - look how well maintaining their lands went OTL after they became independent.
 
eastern Transylvania was Hungarian and quite loyal.
breaking up would cause quite a bit of disconcert in Hungarian controlled areas
 

Deleted member 94680

eastern Transylvania was Hungarian and quite loyal.
breaking up would cause quite a bit of disconcert in Hungarian controlled areas

Don't forget all the German (Austrian) areas dotted around - they wouldn't take kindly to being given away.
You_Doodle_2017_01_01_T12_08_29_Z.jpg


For reference, the red areas are those with a German majority, orange Romanian and green Hungarian.
 
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Don't forget all the German (Austrian) areas dotted around - they wouldn't take kindly to being given away.
You_Doodle_2017_01_01_T12_08_29_Z.jpg


For reference, the red areas are those with a German majority, orange Romanian and green Hungarian.
this I agree, the magyar elite would be hard pressed to keep all the domains in one piece and I think they new it
 
Its future would have looked troubled, and probably not too long.

The idea that Franz Ferdinand wanted democratization or federalization is a common mistake. He was a reactionary through and through; he didn't intend to elevate anyone's rights, only to bring the Hungarians (whom he hated) down so he can pursue his dreams of neo-absolutism. Franz Ferdinand's assassination removed one of the biggest immediate threats to the empire's stability and existence: the likely event of him trying to implement his ridiculous ideas and causing a chain reaction which unravels the empire.

So, instead of FF trying to beat the Hungarians (and everyone else) into submission, you have the 1917 Ausgleich renegotiation overseen by Franz Joseph or Karl. In other words: by someone sane, if not terribly clever. There is a lot shouting and hair pulling, but eventually the Austrians and Hungarians reach a compromise and the empire shambles on towards 1927, assuming it doesn't get involved in any wars.

FF's death will be somewhat of a setback for the clique of Greater Austrian militarists and reactionaries - he was, after all, their poster child and spiritual liege. But they may try to mount a comeback through Karl, who was kind of Franz Ferdinand Lite. If they do, things may get pretty ugly. The Hungarian ruling elites were not the worst faction in Austria-Hungary, not by a long shot.

The south Slavic lands keep simmering, and are soon joined by the escalation of other flashpoints of discontent like Transylvania. Together with the Austrian-Hungarian rivalry, they set the stage for the next series of crises.
 

Redbeard

Banned
As long as the KuK Armee is intact the Empire will exist.

So if the Hungarians or anyone else are going to secede they will have to defeat the KuK Armee. Would that be possible? Anything is possible , but if it comes to a civil war I actually would bet on the KuK Armee. This civil war could of course soon develop into something more, like the Russians supporting the Hungarians or whoever, and the Germans the Kaiser etc etc. That could of course end in the KuK Armee ceasing to exist, in which case the Empire will too.

As you may have guessed I don't think The Habsburg Empire was as ramshackle as it often claimed. It of course couldn't have gone on without comprehensive reforms (who could?), but a "showdown" with the Hungarian claim to be "something special" might even if bloody be the foundation for a more federalist Empire, but still with the Habsburgs on top in a constitutional role.

Will it last forever? Of course not, no Empire will, we are seeing the fast decline of one right now.
 

Deleted member 94680

FF wanted a triune settlement to bring the Hungarians down but he didn't want to "beat them into submission".

You can't take the epoch-shattering events of WWI with it's aftermath and work backwards to imagine forces that weren't there. The world was changed by WWI making moderates into radicals and radicals into extremists. Men who would posture and preen then negotiate reasonably behind closed doors pre-War changed to irreconcilable secessionists when the slaughter of WWI weakened the Empire's forces. Without that weakening, the strength of the Empire (real or imagined) would influence any attempts at reform, revolution or secession.
 
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