The Future is Green

[Orville_third]

Three bits of ideas-
First, how would rural areas be affected? They actually use the SUVs and pickups for real work, not joyrides. They also might get hard hit by high gas prices. (Perhaps more ethanol gets produced- and that ethanol doesn't just cone from corn...)
Second, how would the trucking industry fare? They were hard hit by fuel costs IOTL. Would more mergers like Yellow and Roadway occur?
Third, how would popular culture react to this? Gas guzzlers would go out of favor- would NASCAR? Would rappers still boast about their Escalades? What about country music?

 

[loughery111]

In September 2003, Sasol announced that it would jump into the US market with its synthetic oil production technology. For the relatively-small South African company, this was a big, big leap of faith - but with fifty years of experience at producing coal from oil, they knew what to do and how to do it.

Flip that, no?

 

[TheMann]

First, how would rural areas be affected? They actually use the SUVs and pickups for real work, not joyrides. They also might get hard hit by high gas prices. (Perhaps more ethanol gets produced- and that ethanol doesn't just cone from corn...)

Hit the nail on the head on the ethanol front. Ethanol from corn sucks. Ethanol from cellulose, an idea which was developed in the US, is much better. Diesel, which is already somewhat cheaper than gas in many places and here is NOT taxed as heavily, will help too.

Second, how would the trucking industry fare? They were hard hit by fuel costs IOTL. Would more mergers like Yellow and Roadway occur?

Probably. Many trucking firms will also turn to railways, as IOTL. Railways will take advantage of this, of course.

Third, how would popular culture react to this? Gas guzzlers would go out of favor- would NASCAR? Would rappers still boast about their Escalades? What about country music?

I don't expect much to change there. NASCAR survived the first gas crisis just fine, though it shortened some of its races to compensate for it. I doubt the rappers would change much. Cadillac would still make the Escalade (somebody who can afford one of those probably isn't all that concerned about its gas mileage) and I doubt much would change with country music. They can get smaller pickups, too.

 

[TheMann]

Flip that, no?

Yes. (D'oh.)

 

[Penelope]

Keep it coming!!

 

[FDW]

The suddenly-high fuel prices contributed to a renaissance in public transportation, too, especially in cities which were already working on such expansions. As with the alternative energy proposals, ideas for mass transit improvements quickly became a dime a dozen, with cities from San Francisco to Boston to Miami beginning such efforts. Diesel fueled-buses weren't in most of the more ambitious ones - many of the ideas involved electrified rail transit of some form or another, though trolley buses soon became a fairly common (and cost-effective) idea. The sudden and massive rise in traffic levels caused problems in many areas, with big systems such as BART (San Francisco Bay Area), MTA (New York) and Metrolink (Los Angeles) hardest hit.

Commuter rail lines and regional rail became common proposals too, even on relatively sparsely-populated routes such as Albuquerque-Santa Fe in New Mexico and Minneapolis-Duluth in Minnesota. High-speed lines also became common proposals, with serious proposals showing up in Texas and California on ballots in 2003. A sudden rise in fuel prices hit airlines, already still struggling to recover from 9/11, right in the gut, though for others it proved a surprise - Amtrak, for example, saw a sudden (and very large) increase in the usage of its electrified Acela Express, Northeast Regional and Colonial routes. America's freight rail lines, particularly in hydropower-rich areas such as the Pacific Northwest, began studying electrification again. General Electric, smelling blood in the water, offered to underwrite electrification efforts if they used GE equipment and locomotives for them.

Some quips here, LA's Metrolink is a commuter rail system, while it would certainly have some problems (the fact that Union is a bottleneck among them), Commuter is relatively cheap to expand since all you need is some locomotives and Cars, which would be pretty easy to acquire. MTA's Long Island Railroad would likely suffer similar problems to that LA's Metrolink, but the subway would get away just fine given that NYC's subway system has more available capacity than BART does. Another good example of a system that might be restrained by capacity constraints would be Baltimore's Light Rail system as in 2003 much of the system was still single-tracked.

As for cheap ways of expanding Mass Transit, you really can't get better than commuter rail. While the freight rail companies are going to complain about their margins for a while, getting rid of some of the most asinine FRA regulations will be a boon towards bringing back passenger rail in urban areas. It would probably be a better to go with modern streetcars (Like the Portland streetcar), as they can built rather quickly (about 12 months for construction), and relatively cheaply, making them rather competitive with Trolleybuses. (Though cities that already have trolleybuses would better off expanding their trolleybus systems)

As for expansion butterflies, well there's Louisville, which it's got starter line blown up because of a lack of local funds, and there's several other extensions/starter lines that will open earlier. (examples below)

For Light Rail:
-Seattle's Central Link
-Portland's Clackamas and Milwaukee MAX
-Los Angeles's Gold Line Eastside extension and Expo Line
-Phoenix's starter line
-Denver's T-REX
-Norfolk's The Tide
-Charlotte's LYNX
-New Jersey's Union/Elizabeth LRT
-Boston's Green Line extension
-San Francisco's Central Subway
-VTA's E Santa Clara LRT
-Sacramento's Natomas and Elk Grove extensions
-Memphis's LRT to the airport
-Dallas Green Line, Orange Line, Blue Line extensions, D2
-Houston METRO solutions
-Orange County Center Line
-San Diego Mid-Coast Trolley
-Baltimore Red Line
-Washington DC Purple Line

For Heavy Rail:
-Chicago Circle Line and other short extensions and infill stations
-New York 2nd Ave Subway and 7 Line extension.
-Los Angeles Westside extension
-Washington DC Silver Line, fourth mainline through D.T. DC
-Boston Blue Line extension to Lynn
-BART San Jose extension, E Contra Costa Extension, second Transbay line.

For Commuter rail:
-Caltrain electrification
-LA Metrolink Perris valley line
-NYC connection between Penn and Grand Central
-Marin/Sonoma County SMART
-N San Diego County Sprinter
-Seattle Eastside commuter rail
-Portland WES

That should do for now. Any comments on this stuff before I go on?

 

[TheMann]

FDW, would you have any objections if I pointed out in a future update that most or all of those had been built? As I said before, this your area of expertise.

 

[FDW]

FDW, would you have any objections if I pointed out in a future update that most or all of those had been built? As I said before, this your area of expertise.

I want them built, but let me provide the opening dates for these lines.

 

[TheMann]

I want them built, but let me provide the opening dates for these lines.

I figured it would take time and money to do. Most of that would get approval and funding in 2005 and 2006, so with that in mind, how soon would any of them be opened? The connection between Penn Station and Grand Central, in particular, will be an absolute bugger to build.

 

[New Potomac]

Snip

I would also imagine that Chicago's Metra would get a lot more attention, if not financing, for projects like it's extension to Milwaukee and the STAR Line.

 

[TheMann]

I would also imagine that Chicago's Metra would get a lot more attention, if not financing, for projects like it's extension to Milwaukee and the STAR Line.

Truthfully, I was gonna have Amtrak run a frequent Twin Cities-Green Bay-Milwaukee-Chicago service. But METRA would work on that, I would imagine.

 

[New Potomac]

Truthfully, I was gonna have Amtrak run a frequent Twin Cities-Green Bay-Milwaukee-Chicago service. But METRA would work on that, I would imagine.

METRA would only run service between Chicago and Milwaukee, with stops in Racine and Kenosha. Amtrak would still run service between the two, along with the route you posted.

 

[FDW]

I figured it would take time and money to do. Most of that would get approval and funding in 2005 and 2006, so with that in mind, how soon would any of them be opened? The connection between Penn Station and Grand Central, in particular, will be an absolute bugger to build.

Many of the Lines I'm talking about (Seattle, Charlotte, Phoenix, LA Eastside, Portland Clackamas, Dallas Green) will have already started construction by 2005 ITTL, as for the others, give me a few day to ruminate over it, but I would imagine most of the projects I mentioned being opened by about 2015. (with many opening earlier, and a few later than that)

 

[Riain]

Keep it coming, I'm obsessed with energy and transport at the moment.

 

[loughery111]

Yes. (D'oh.)

No worries, it happens to the best of us. Though, I would really be quite amused to see a process for the synthesis of coal (in all its immobile, dirty as all hell, inefficient glory) from oil.

That said, looks pretty good. I know South Africa when embargoed was getting most of its oil (or at least a large fraction) from this process... do you know the price at which it's economically efficient?

 

[TheMann]

Keep it coming, I'm obsessed with energy and transport at the moment.

Alrighty then.

BTW, the Aussie Holden Commodore and Ford Falcon are headed stateside, too.

The car situation:

Ford
The new-for-2004 Ford Focus went on sale in North America at the same time as Europe, Ford replaced the god-awful Crown Victoria with the Aussie Falcon, the Series 3 Mondeo came over at the same time as the Focus and the OTL Fusion is gonna turn up a year early, debuting for '05. The Ranger is going to get an overhaul for '06. Ford also brings the Puma to North America for young buyers as well. The F-150 is new for '04 but gets new engines for '05, with the Barra and Barra Turbo straight-six engines taking over from the Essex V6, the 5.4 Triton gone and the 6.0 Powerstroke turbodiesel taking over the duties. The Econoline is only sold in cargo versions from '05 on and goes completely in favor of the Transit for '07. The Escape goes on as OTL. The Series 4 Explorer goes on the market a year early, for '05. The Expedition is available by special order, and the Excursion is gone completely. Lincoln is as OTL.

General Motors
The Saturn Astra replaced the lackluster Ion for '04, and the Saturn Aura is sped up, coming to market for '06. The Vue goes on as IOTL. The Cavalier goes on through '03, but the Cobalt replaces it in '04. The Aveo arrives as IOTL. The new-for-04 Malibu comes on as IOTL, but gets the older V6s are replaced with the supercharged LSJ four-cylinder for '05. The HHR is shoved into production early, coming on almost the same time as the Cobalt. The Holden Statesman comes to North America as the Chevrolet Impala for '04. The Silverado loses the 5.3-liter engine and gains the Duramax turbodiesel for '04. The Equinox is as OTL, but the LNJ V6 is replaced with the LSJ four-cylinder. The GMT900 Tahoe is sped up, introducing in '06, with the High-Feature V6 being the base model and the Duramax available. The Avalanche goes after '04. The Suburban goes to GMC and special order status. Uplander goes as OTL, though gets renamed the Astro. Corvette and Camaro are as OTL.

Pontiac loses the G3 (Aveo with different badge) and G5 (Cobalt with different badge) for '06 as Pontiac goes exclusively to performance cars, with the new G6 being a sporty rear-drive performance sedan (with convertible launched in '07) and the G8, a rebadged Holden Commodore) and the GTO (rebadged Monaro) entering production for '05. The Opel Speedster comes to North America as the Pontiac Fiero for '05, and the Solstice, which is half the price, enters the next year.

Buick gets the Lacrosse fitted with LSJ engine as well, as well as the High-Feature V6. A new Buick Park Avenue goes into production for '06 backed on the Zeta platform. The Regal goes much as IOTL, dying in 2004 and returning as a variant of the Opel Insignia for '09.

Cadillac goes as OTL, with the exception of the Escalade, which gets the supercharged V8 from the XLR instead of the 5.3 and 6.0-liter V6s, and it also gets the Duramax. The BLS is introduced to North America at the same time as Europe and uses the better Duramax engines. The DTS gets moved up a year and debuts in '05. The Northstar and Northstar SC engines are common across the lineup by '07, except for the CTS-V and BLS.

GMC follows Chevrolet's pattern, using the same engines and chassis for the Sierra (Silverado), Tahoe and Canyon (Colorado). The GMC Acadia and Terrain are as OTL but both are sped up a year and two years, respectively.

The H1 and H2 Hummer are only available with the turbodiesel engines and as serious off-roaders. The H3 never happens. Hummers remain uncommon and expensive, but serious tools for off-road work.

Chrysler
The Neon goes as OTL, but a new car is rushed into production, debuting in mid-'05, with a smaller version with different front-end sheetmetal becoming the MG ZR. A new Stratus enters production with the same chassis as the Mitsubishi Galant, fitted with the SRT-4's turbocharged four-cylinder for '06. This car is also known as the MG ZS. The Dodge Charger enters production for '05, replacing the Intrepid, though its lower-powered V6s are tossed in favor of the turbocharged four. The 6.1-liter Hemi V8 is still used, though the 5.7 is limited to trucks. The MG ZT is as OTL until replacement in 2008, except for the Ford V8 being replaced with the 5.7-liter Chrysler Hemi and MG's V6s being replaced by the Powertec V6 after '07. Grand Caravan is as OTL aside from the engine changes.

Dodge Nitro and Journey are as OTL, except sped up a year for the Nitro and two years for the Journey. The Nitro is also available for 2006 with the MG 2.5-liter V6. Both can also be fitted VM Motori-developed diesel engines. A high-end 2.7-liter V6, developed by Judd in Britain, enters production for '07, and is fitted to the Stratus, Charger, Nitro and Journey, as well as the MG ZT. The 3.6-liter Pentastar V6 enters production in '08. The Ram loses the 4.7-liter V8 and the ancient Magnum 5.9, but otherwise is as OTL. The new-generation Dakota is rushed into production for '04, and loses the 4.7 V8 for the 5.7 Hemi, and the 3.7 V6 goes in favor of the Pentastar V6 in '08, as well as a new Cummins turbodiesel V6.

The MG TF is sold in the US in '03 through '05, before the Dodge Copperhead enters production in 2006. Challenger and Viper are OTL, aside from different engines in the Challenger.

The Chrysler 300 is mechanically identical to the Dodge Charger. The PT Cruiser and Prowler are as OTL, aside from the Prowler being fitted with the high-end V6 in '06, the Pentastar V6 in '08 and staying on sale until 2010. The 200 goes on sale in 2009 (two years early). The Town and Country is the only common-chassis Chrysler has, and all Town and Country's are very luxurious models, with the Pentastar engines (after '08) and all-wheel-drive.

 

[TheMann]

That said, looks pretty good. I know South Africa when embargoed was getting most of its oil (or at least a large fraction) from this process... do you know the price at which it's economically efficient?

Sasol still sells that oil and makes profits doing it ($1.75 Billion USD in 2009), and current gas prices in South Africa are about R7.50 a liter, which when made into gallons and using the current exchange rate runs about $4 a gallon. Beyond that, I'm not sure. But with the idea to keep fuel prices at about $4.25 a gallon, they can turn profits. The idea I'm having is that over the 2000s and 2010s, as coal-fired power plants are phased out, that the coal instead goes to these plants, becoming motor fuel instead. Its energy is much better used that way. The Sasol-Hess alliance has not gone unnoticed, I can assure you.

 

[Polish Eagle]

Excellent TL. I'd like to also suggest expansion of the Long Island Railroads' freight service. Due to lack of a good tunnel connection with the mainland, most of the freight in Long Island is shipped by trucks. Proposals have been around for a freight tunnel under NY Harbor for years, but none have reached fruition yet.

Second, Biodiesel. To make biodiesel, all one needs is vegetable oil and sodium hydroxide. One is left with glycerine and biodiesel, the latter of which will run in any diesel engine without modification (Rudolf Diesel's original idea for the diesel engine was for farmers to make their own fuel anyway).

 

[Orville_third]

In regards to Saturn, are the polymer bodyside panels being made still? (As part of a loyal Saturn family, we miss them.) They would reduce a car's weight, and still provide protection. On the other hand, with petroleum being more expensive, petroleum-based plastics will be more expensive too.
Meanwhile, are carbon fibers being more widely used in this timeline?

 

[The Sandman]

One thing to look into: just how dependent is our corn-and-CAFO agribusiness setup on large amounts of relatively cheap oil, and is it possible to reduce that dependency while keeping our farm system the same as it is now?

Because while I don't have exact figures, I'm pretty sure the answer to question one is "very", which means that if the answer to question two is "no" we're looking at a major shakeup in US agriculture. Might be a chance to get something more sustainable going; at the very least, organic foodstuffs should be competitive with industrial agriculture on price for a good year or three, especially the sort of locally-grown food that deserves to be called "organic" in spirit as well as in letter.