The Frog that Changed the World

So while making a different post, in a different forum, I made the comment:

"[Someone] thinks of him as a vile toad; the thing is, though, most toads don't decide on the future of our Res Publica."

So I got to thinking, What if some great man of Rome actually tripped on/was startled by a toad and died? Perhaps he falls off a defile, or falls into a swamp and drowns.

I got to thinking: where would this be most effective and entertaining at changing history?

So let's say that during the Siege of Numantia in 133BC, Gaius Marius trips on a toad and splatters his brains onto the rocks of Spain. Immediately the effects are negligible: Scipio Aemilianus grieves the loss of an effective subordinate, the Arpinate Mariuses mourn the loss of the elder son, and Publius Rutilius Rufus and Jugurtha of Numidia mourn the loss of their drinking buddy.

However, future effects are boundless. Without Gaius Marius, the Numidian War is ineffectively continued by Quintus Caecilius Metellus. When the Cimbri defeat Quintus Servilius Caepio and Gnaeus Mallius Maximus at the Battle of Arausio, there's no effective commander in Rome that can be sent to defeat them.

The armies in Numidia are probably pulled out and Jugurtha overruns Rome's Africa province, probably negotiating a favorable peace that includes a little bit of land and a lot of gold. With the African army, Rome is in OTL's position, but without Gaius Marius.

If the Cimbri win the ensuing fight, Rome is finished as a world power. Jugurtha takes Africa, the Seleucids take parts of Asia Minor and fight the Ptolemys for the Levant, Mithridates comes to power in Pontus as in OTL (Rome didn't affect that much) and forges his dreamed-of megastate, Spaniards and Gauls jack Rome's western provinces up, and the Italian Allies decide that Roman citizenship is worthless, and go independent.
The Cimbri probably settle in warm, fertile Italy.

If the Cimbri lose, Rome takes higher losses and even more of its propertied men are dead. Sulla (not being Marius's quaestor as in OTL, and not capturing Jugurtha) remains a political unknown, THE Julius Caesar is probably not born (his mother and father met while dining at Publius Rutilius Rufus's--he being a friend of Gaius Marius [Caesar's father's brother-in-law] and an uncle of Caesar's mother), and Rome either falls apart or somebody else (a certain filthy rich Pompeius [whether Strabo or Magnus, I know not] comes to mind) thinks of Marius's ideas: to recruit from the proletarii, train hard, become super-effective, supply all their needs, and gain their everlasting loyalty. Thus saving Rome and creating a political system where a few military strongmen own the state (like OTL's Rome from 104BC to 391BC).

I think. Am I right in thinking that the situation in which smallholders' plots are sold to or seized by wealthy senators because of their absences due to military service and death was untenable; and that Rome would either fall apart, or be seized by strongmen who rewarded the proletarii with land?
Seriously, Rome's manpower pool was seriously affected from the Second Punic War on to the wars for Greece, Macedonia, and Asia Minor; no more smallholders means 70 or 80% of the army is gone.
With the Socii experiencing the same upheaval, I expect them to lose their shit no matter what, even if given the Citizenship.

???
 
While I think you go a little overboard with the effect Gaius Marius had, a lot of what you said is certainly possible I suppose. I personally doubt Rome would pull out of Numidia, at least not for awhile. Remember, Marius' war against Jugurtha was largely a failure until an ambitious young officer named Sulla was able to convince one of his commanders to hand him over.

Cattalus is also often underestimated in his role in helping Marius take down the Cimbri-largely due to Marius' own machinations in playing down Cattalus' role. I imagine someone will get the idea Marius had of recruiting landless poor-it was becoming fairly obvious that since political solutions were not forthcoming, something would need to be done to fill the legions.

Though if Rome manages to survive the Cimbri and Teutones' invasion (which I think they would, since I personally don't think the Cimbri and Teutones had much interest in actually sacking Rome or anything, or for that matter, setting in Roman Italy, though I don't know much about them so I may be wrong) it might come during the social war-bound to erupt if Livius Drusus is assassinated TTL.

It would be interesting to see how Mithradates fairs here too. I imagine Sulla would still rise through the ranks and get his command but his victory over Mithradates was far from a given-if Mithradates can pull off a better performance in Greece....

or alternatively, with no unrest in Rome to worry about Sulla could continue to prosecute the war to its finish, preventing Mithradates from having the chance to build up his power again.
 
Well, the only reason Sulla participated in the Jugurthine War is that he was specifically requested by Gaius Marius to be his quaestor, which the voters accepted and voted for.
He was completely unknown in the political scene at that time, even being married to a patrician Julia Caesaris. Having no military experience or training (being poor from birth and all that), Sulla would have a hard time being elected without Marius's help.

As for Catulus...you're probably right. The official historians would've wanted to make THE Julius Caesar's inclusive, Populare uncle Marius look pretty good compared to the haughty Optimate, Quintus Lutatius Catulus Caesar--maybe also magnifying Sulla's proscriptions along the way.
Hey, and how about Sulla's proscriptions? After the Social War and outfitting for the Mithridatic War, the Republic was essentially broke. Its provinces were simmering from abuses, a third of Italy was devastated, and Mithridates was taking rich Asia Minor and Greece from Rome's grasp. Even with the temple-robbing, I don't think Sulla could have pulled it off without the income from the proscriptions.

No Sulla = Maybe no proscriptions?

We're in for a Roman downfall here. Unless Sulla 2.0 rises, of course.
 
Hmmm.... how about the Frog King doesnt drown the mouse, and we dont have the Batrachomyomachia, and for want of such a ;)glorious;) piece of literature, the world changes.
 
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