The Franco-Persian Alliance of 1795 And the great Napoleonic Eastern Plot

In 1795, Napoleon sent two French delegates to go to Persia for a diplomatic mission.

They had some significance in the Persian court. They gave advice to the Persians to help the agenda of France. One was to consolidate the Khan's position into Georgia as a way to set up a base for easier European contact byways of Mingrelia.

They asked primarily for three things

1 Agha Mohammad Khan and Persia to declare war on the Ottoman Empire, diverting forces away from the soon to be Egyptian Front

2 The French to set up a factory at Bandar Abbas.

3 Agha Mohammad Khan to send 12,000 Horsemen to Tipu Sultan to attack the British.

The Agha denied these requests, however, what if he did? He goes to war with the Ottomans in 1795, He allows a French factory, and he sends the 12,000 Horsemen to Tipu Sultan. What are the effects?
 
I remember Fath Ali Shah being abandoned by the French against the Russians, when the French failed their Egyptian Campaign. Not the first time as they abandoned the Ottomans in 1806. It was a common French tactic then to set up states against enemies.

If Agha Mohammed did he would have to fight the Ottomans. The French were driven back to Egypt and the British blockade made it impossible for the French to be effective. The Ottomans can wait a few months/years and then focus on Agha Mohammed Khan. Agha Mohammed might lose the Caucasus instead of his successor. Or he gets a status quo out of the war which but I don't know if the Ottomans and maybe the Russians will let go a chance like that. The Qajars were fairly new dynasty in the region. Any defeat could harm them and Iran in general. At most the Qajars get a Status Quo as Selim III is not confident enough to fight the war (which has different effects later on) but it might drive the Russians and Ottomans together even sooner.

I don't know how Agha Mohammed will send 12,000 men to Southern India but it would have been a great help. Maybe it could have saved Tipu but I think after the Third Anglo-Mysori War Tippu was waiting for his demise. Maybe Tipu makes it to the 19th century but it is going down unless the Marathas turn against the British earlier. I have my doubts for its usefulness.
 
I remember Fath Ali Shah being abandoned by the French against the Russians, when the French failed their Egyptian Campaign. Not the first time as they abandoned the Ottomans in 1806. It was a common French tactic then to set up states against enemies.

If Agha Mohammed did he would have to fight the Ottomans. The French were driven back to Egypt and the British blockade made it impossible for the French to be effective. The Ottomans can wait a few months/years and then focus on Agha Mohammed Khan. Agha Mohammed might lose the Caucasus instead of his successor. Or he gets a status quo out of the war which but I don't know if the Ottomans and maybe the Russians will let go a chance like that. The Qajars were fairly new dynasty in the region. Any defeat could harm them and Iran in general. At most the Qajars get a Status Quo as Selim III is not confident enough to fight the war (which has different effects later on) but it might drive the Russians and Ottomans together even sooner.

I don't know how Agha Mohammed will send 12,000 men to Southern India but it would have been a great help. Maybe it could have saved Tipu but I think after the Third Anglo-Mysori War Tippu was waiting for his demise. Maybe Tipu makes it to the 19th century but it is going down unless the Marathas turn against the British earlier. I have my doubts for its usefulness.

I'm not too sure on specific observations, as there is not much detail given on this from the source, but I'm just making my best guess.

I think the Agha Mohammad Khan invasion would be an immediate threat. If the Khan takes Karbala, the Ottoman religious prestige is going to be severely damaged, and I think they could occupy a vast amount of land from the Ottomans, and considering the Khan has a very powerful military, and one with high morale, and an army of around 66,000 soldiers on standby, and that doesn't include reserve troops in every city and province ready to be called up.

The Khan most likely wouldn't lose the Caucasus. The meeting would occur after the Sack of Tiflis and campaign in Georgia. Russia didn't strike back against Persia in 1795, and I doubt they'd respond immediately. I'd just be a repeat of the Persian Campaign of 1796.

With a new campaign front he's fighting in, he will not be assassinated, leading to a whole whirlwind of possibilities, but against the Ottomans, I'm sure they'd win.

I'm guessing he'd send them through the desert on a long march protected by the Khan, and I doubt any Indian kingdom would dare threaten him for fear of invasion, and they would come to the Tipu Sultans aid. I think the arrival of 12,000 Cavalry would be of major help to Tipu Sultan. I'm not sure how they would affect the war, but I bet it would be a great effect.
 
I'm not too sure on specific observations, as there is not much detail given on this from the source, but I'm just making my best guess.

I think the Agha Mohammad Khan invasion would be an immediate threat. If the Khan takes Karbala, the Ottoman religious prestige is going to be severely damaged, and I think they could occupy a vast amount of land from the Ottomans, and considering the Khan has a very powerful military, and one with high morale, and an army of around 66,000 soldiers on standby, and that doesn't include reserve troops in every city and province ready to be called up.

The Khan most likely wouldn't lose the Caucasus. The meeting would occur after the Sack of Tiflis and campaign in Georgia. Russia didn't strike back against Persia in 1795, and I doubt they'd respond immediately. I'd just be a repeat of the Persian Campaign of 1796.

With a new campaign front he's fighting in, he will not be assassinated, leading to a whole whirlwind of possibilities, but against the Ottomans, I'm sure they'd win.

I'm guessing he'd send them through the desert on a long march protected by the Khan, and I doubt any Indian kingdom would dare threaten him for fear of invasion, and they would come to the Tipu Sultans aid. I think the arrival of 12,000 Cavalry would be of major help to Tipu Sultan. I'm not sure how they would affect the war, but I bet it would be a great effect.

The Ottomans lost Karbala many times in the 17th and 18th century but recovered it. Karbala has no prestigious meaning for Sunni Ottomans and will be reconquered soon after as Agha Mohammed has no chance to stay in Southern Mesopotamia, without taking Baghdad.

The Qajar Army is not really of the best quality. The 66k men, which I doubt he will bring them all to Iraq or Eastern Anatolia, is possibly the maximum he can bring up. Reserve troops are needed to not let recently conquered towns. Considering how brutal the Khans conquest were I can't really imagine Agha Mohammed being liked by his Persian subject thus needing the Troops there as well.

The loss of the Caucasus depends entirely on the course of the war. As I stated, the Qajar Army isn't a modern strong forces. The Ottoman Army is much much stronger even with rebellious, non-behaving, bandit type, Janissaries. It depends on who will win the battles in Eastern Anatolia. In OTL, Abbas Mirza did not try more after his victory in Erzurum in 1822 when the Ottomans were in much worse shape. I can't really see Agha Mohammed trying for more without even soldifyng control over Azerbaijan. In an Ottoman victory, it depends entirely on Selim III choices. The longer the War takes the likelier the chance Azerbaijan North of the Aras River will fall.

Agha Mohammed can get at a maximum a same victory as the Qajars had in 1823. Border ratifications and maybe Shia Turkic lands in Kars added but that is it. He has no resources or manpower or quality to get anything significant and the War cannot last longer than three years.

The other problem I see is in 1798 did the Egyptian Campaign start. Assuming it takes two years to come and return which makes a Persian War starting in late 1796, early 1797. Enough time until the French arrive and if they arrive... like I said, the French betrayed Persia, Ottomans etc many times before.

The 12k Horseman to go through hostile Afghanistan and the Maratha lands? Can't be good. Marathas were already hostile to Mysore and sending them aid is not going to help.
 
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