The Franco-Japanese war

sharlin

Banned
Thank you for the support and comments folks, more will be updated :)

And regarding recent discussions...

*a wild Yamato and 9 German carrier battlegroup appears*
 

sharlin

Banned
[FONT=&quot]The Battle of Tonkin Gulf - Jockeying for Position[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Alerted by wireless, Morse and his own eyes the French Commander, Rear Admiral Maras prepared to fight the Japanese. He accepted that his ships were materially weaker than his Japanese foe and even though he outnumbered them, pound for pound, he was outgunned. Four of his ships had a three gun broadside, whilst the other two had a two gun broadside, whilst he was weaker in cruisers and small ships. He could not run either, the Formidable and Amiral Baudin could only really do 12 knots and even then that was for short bursts of a hour, perhaps two before they suffered engine difficulties. [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]But he was resolved to fight, his crews were well trained, ready and willing to fight, manning their guns, each barrel trained on the distant smoke plume of their enemy. Maras knew English ships, and the Japanese ships were English built, English designed for the most part, at least he knew what he was facing. But how to face them? Both fleets were steaming towards each other, the French ships still close inshore, a mere two miles from the coast of Vietnam itself. It cut down on his manoeuvring but also stopped the Japanese as well, reducing their possibilities to get round his ships too. They could not cross his T if they had to turn sharply away to avoid running aground. If he turned out to sea to try and cross the Japanese T he feared they would use their speed to get around him, parrying his thrust and endangering his command. [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Help was coming, the Fleet had been sending out constant wireless and Morse reports on its journey and had received word that the 1st Squadron had departed Saigon and was heading to his location at maximum speed. That was 18 knots, a long hard run for the engines but they could do it. Combined the two squadrons easily outgunned the Japanese vessels. So withdraw it was. Keep the Jap's back with gunfire, the promising report from the D'Estrees about the effectiveness and very surprising accuracy of long ranged gunfire was well received. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Walking across the bridge, his staff in tow the French commander had two options, turn in sequence, but this would cost him speed and time as his line competed its turn to come to its new heading. Speed and time they did not have.

The cruisers and Torpedo boats were coming in like young grazer animals seeking the protection of their larger kin. There was another option, but it was risky. The so called 'battle turn away', each ship would make a simultaneous turn on a signal from the Flagship. The theory was that the line could conduct a complete 180 degree turn away from a superior force without wasting time turning individually. But there were risks. If a ship suffered a mechanical fault in the turn, it could result in a collision, in practice there had been a few close scrapes and that had been at 5 knots, not at 10 knots at battle stations. Logically and tactically it was the best choice but it was still a worry thought. [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]"Admiral, message from Formidable ENEMY IN SIGHT." The messenger read off the course and heading and a few minutes later the Bridge crew had the Japanese ships marked on a map.. "ENEMY SPEED BELIVED TO BE 15 KNOTS."

It took a few minutes to work out the rates of closure. The speed of the Japanese was three knots faster than his ships could safely do without breaking up the squadron, and it was three knots short of what the British built ships could do at flank speed.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]"Very well, Signals Officer, signal all battleships - "BATTLE TURN AWAY - TURN TOGETHER TO COURSE 166 - SPEED 12 KNOTS."

The signal raced up the halliards of the Marceau. The Flags were lashed in tight bundles and closely watched by the other five battleships and repeating destroyers. The Signalman jerked a light line and the tight balls that were the wrapped flags fell loose, streaming, standing out stiffly in the offshore breeze. The other French Battleships and repeating destroyers raced to read the flags, find them in their own lockers, report the signal to their Captains and then acknowledge the Signal by hauling up the exact same flags and breaking out the signals.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]This ensured that no misunderstanding was possible anywhere in the fleet. The last to acknowledge the signal was the Hoche who was hampered by the smoke from the other ships.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]"Signal acknowledged Sir" Reported the Signal Lieutenant, a Midshipman, stationed on the Bridge for just this purpose with a stop watched called out.

"One minute fifteen seconds sir, Hoche last by five seconds."[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]"Very good." The Admiral took a deep breath and nodded slightly. "Execute!" Immediately the flags came down on the Marceau and this was repeated instantly on every other ship in the squadron. The helmsman of each battleship put the wheel over, watching the compass as reports were sent in, warning of proximity and distance to other ships in the squadron.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]IJN Shikishima - Bridge.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]All eyes were on the distant French line. The Japanese line had watched the damaged Takasago take up position astern, her bow still smouldering from the fire that had raged there. The assembled officers were treated to the spectacle of the French ships turning together. It was a sign of a well drilled and trained fleet. Taking note of the French formation and estimated speed Rear Admiral Tokioki made his plans. [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]"Signal the fleet. "MAKE SPEED 18 KNOTS. CONTINUE ON PRESENT COURSE." He planned to outrun these lumbering ugly ships and tear them apart. Long range gunnery or no, his ships were superior, he felt his crews were better trained. The British had taught them well and they had some of the best ships in the world. Time to find out if the Sun would continue to rise in the east as the ship surged forwards at flank speed, followed by her consorts, the big ships hull thrumming as the engines worked themselves to full power, the forced draught fans whining as they forced more air into the boilers buried deep in the hull whilst the stoakers, bent double as they fed the hungry boilers with coal.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot](1)
battleship_shikishima.jpg
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[FONT=&quot]1)IJN Shikishima flaghip of Admiral Tokioki, built in England to the latest design’s of successful ship builders. Larger than her French adversaries and better armed and protected the ship and her comrades were a generation ahead of the French vessels in the Far East.[/FONT]
 
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Grey Wolf

Donor
The Russo-Japanese War and all the events leading up to it were a speciality of mine for a long time. I always love to see a different take on events of the 1890s/1900s and this looks most intriguing.

A big question is - Is Hainan viable as anything? IIRC it was not much of anything at this time? The challenge is to make it make sense.

Also, Russo-Japanese tensions over Korea come in the mostpart from Shimonoseki which ended the Sino-Japanese War, but the spark to lead to the R-J War was the Russo-French-German alliance that drove the Japanese from Liayong/Port Arthur (Japan got more compensation from China instead) whilst then going on to take advantage of Chinese weakness and internal dislocation to seize their own holdings (Port Arthur, Kwangchowan and Tsingtao)

IMHO a solution which would work best to the interests of your timeline would be for Japan to make gains from the Sino-Japanese War that were not then lost to it. If the IJN had had to fight the Chinese fleet from the South then there would be a greater impetus for Japanese gains further South.

My memory is full of holes due to life, but as I recall the Imperial Chinese Navy consisted in general of 3 fleets - North, South and Centre. The Sino-French War in the late 1880s (which gained France Hanoi) resulted in the destruction of the then-central fleet and its facilities at Foochow etc. What I can't remember is the fate of the Southern fleet. I know that in the Sino-Japanese War it was the Northern fleet that was destroyed by Japan off the Yalu and at Wei-hai-wei and Tsingtao. There was certainly no Southern involvement, but was there a fleet there NOT to be involved?

I am intrigued! I'm going to hunt down my copy of the Chinese Steam Navy - whilst we're talking books I would advise you buy this book (by Richard N J Wright) as well as Theodore Ropp's "Development of a Modern Navy - French Naval Policy 1871-1904", both of which should be available by checking Amazon and Alibris.

OK, reading and filling some of the holes in my memory - the 2 main Chinese fleets were Peiyang (Northern) and Nanyang (Southern) tho the Nanyang tended in actual fact to be the central, based on Shanghai/Foochow/Fukien whilst the South in actuality (Canton) maintained its own smaller squadrons under the greater autonomy that that area had, being further from Peking.

In the Sino-French War, it was the Nanyang fleet that was destroyed, leaving the Peiyang fleet as the modern navy but I think leaving Canton etc with its smaller force intact, as the Governor had the foresight to fortify his ports and the French didn't go there.

OK, regarding Canton, after the Sino-French War, the squadron there underwent crash modernisation with orders for torpedo boats and modern gunboats, both from Europe and from Foochow, as well as what look like some lower class cruisers from the latter.

As I understand it, the Nanyang Fleet rebuilt itself after the Sino-French War and was not much harmed by the Sino-Japanese War, tho may have lent some ships to the Peiyang Fleet, which would have been lost.

In looking at making the Southern rather than Northern focus of Japan in your timeline make sense, I am looking at involving the Southern Chinese fleets, forcing Japan to seize bases from which to operate against them - bases which would be in Taiwan, and logically in Hainan, even if there's only a sort of anchorage there rather than a proper port.

OTL the Chinese made peace with Japan when Japan were on the verge of landing an army to march on Peking, which they probably would have taken, so it certainly seems that Japan had the financial resources to fight on longer than historically.

What I'm looking at is if Japan had to fight and sink/blockade both the Southern naval forces, presumably seeing them uniting against Japanese forces sent to Taiwan, then it would force a Southern focus on the Japanese. It would also exhaust the Japanese treasury more, which actually helps... Now, Japan having sunk all the Chinese fleets and blockaded the remnants, and about to spend the last of their funds on landing and marching on Peking would make peace on a scale that is not relative to their increased gains, because of their increased need for a solution.

Shimonoseki could therefore see the independence of Korea, the demilitarisation of Port Arthur, and the cession of Formosa and Hainan. Later in the 1890s, Russia is able to focus more on Korea, rather than Manchuria, and Japan is less resentful because nobody has forced them out of their gains. The greater exhaustion of Japan also means that the IDEA of any adventures in Korea is less feasible, and instead the focus is on building up the navy - OTL this used the additional money that China had to pay after the forced Japanese retrocession of Port Arthur, but here with a greater Japanese victory, this money (and probably more) can be included in the basic indemnity.

Of course, this might screw over China worse than in OTL, but on the other hand it might weaken the grip of the Dowager Empress and allow some proper modernisations with Hart's assistance. If Russia is focused on making Korea a puppet or protectorate, it may well not try to seize Port Arthur, especially if it knows that France and Germany will be pissed off by this move. But this probably won't stop France and Germany from taking advantage of China's troubles, and in fact Italy is likely to end up with Ningpo. Britain, tho, won't take Wei-hai-Wei if Russia is not in Port Arthur, tho it would expand its Hong Kong holdings as per OTL.

One could thus imagine that Japanese imperialists are pissed off at the growth of Russian control in Korea, but it is understood that Japan has been too exhausted to properly challenge this. I could see this leading to the idea of looking wider, further afield, but that the Spanish-American War comes too early to try for anything, and thus the Siam Crisis arises at just the right moment, when Japanese strength and finances are recovered and they ARE ready to assert their power.

Looking at Britain and France, in the late 1890s there had been both the Niger Crisis and the Fashoda Incident, and relations had soured to a level where some on both sides were counselling for war. The Boer War hardly helped things, but the simultaneous outbreak of the Boxer Rebellion did, as all Western nations, plus Japan, co-operated in the naval assault on Taku and the march to Peking to relieve the legions.

IMHO you could get rid of the Boxer Revolt. If you assume that a worse outcome to the Sino-Japanese War has weakened the Empress and increased the power of the reformists, then the events of 1898 (European seizure of ports) could well precipitate the latter into completely overthrowing the Empress' rule and by 1900/1901 the Emperor (who was emperor already by completely dominated by the Dowager Empress in OTL) can have instituted reforms that mean any nativist movement like the Boxers can be nipped in the bud. This could be VERY helpful long-term for China because the income confiscations that occurred in the aftermath of the Boxer Rebellions, not least of customs dues, won't now happen. But China is rebuilding from a lower position from OTL, and is in no position to seriously intervene in affairs.

Without the Boxer Rebellion, I could see the Anglo-French Entente being a more cagey affair and thus your depiction of the complexities of alliances make perfect sense (as opposed to approximate sense).

I think a course like that I outline will answer the 2 main questions people have
1) why would Japan settle for Hainan and not Port Arthur?
2) why would Japan allow Russia to win in Korea and focus on Siam/France instead?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

sharlin

Banned
Blimey, I don't know what to say Grey but thank you. I'll admit I know little about the politics of the era beyond the basics of european ones and little about the situation in china and the boxer rebellion, I will have to look into those books and the era more deeply, many thanks for the advice!
 
A defeat of Japan here probably suits British interests more than a victory. A quick French victory offers the potential of repaired relations between Paris and London afterwards, as France won't be feeling bitter in defeat. The Japanese on the other hand will remain closely tied with the British and more dependent upon them. A more cautious Japan serves better as a British proxy and counterweight in East Asia, and one that is less likely to threaten British commercial interests or drag it into a war.

The worst case for Britain might be a long, drawn out affair that raises the possibility for Russian intervention, while also serving to constantly irritate Anglo-French diplomatic relations. Germany might also imagine itself to have a free(er) hand while the other powers are fixated on Asia.
 

sharlin

Banned
I've done the best to try and keep the french strong at home. French Indochina had a considerable ammount of forces in the region, including several loyal and well equipped locally trained regiments, the biggest change is the reinforcement of the naval forces in the region which was originally some even older battleships and some cruisers.

Even with the surge of naval forces to the region the French have basically sent the B team, the ships of the 1st and 2nd squadrons are quite old and inferior to western counterparts, whilst the Med fleet is still strong with their more modern vessels and they also kept their biggest and best amoured cruisers at home.

On the ground the French are stronger than the Russians were save in terms of numbers and the terrain that they could be fighting in is not ideal for both countries. There's also the distance issue for the Japanese, they will need to seize or make a coaling port , something I intend to cover in the future.
 
There's also the distance issue for the Japanese, they will need to seize or make a coaling port , something I intend to cover in the future.

I hadn't thought about that one, it's a good point. Are the Japanese straining at the limits of their logistics then? I can't imagine the Japanese had been investing in the colliers necessary for more distant engagements at this size.
 

sharlin

Banned
The French had a major colony at the Chinese city of Zhanjiang called Fort Boyard. Thats going to be the stop off point the Japanese will try to claim. Boyard was a major coaling point and freight point and is not an insignificant backwater.[FONT=&quot][/FONT]
 

sharlin

Banned
[FONT=&quot]The Franco-Japanese War – Shadow boxing and jabbing.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]MN Marceau - 4th ship in the French Line. Speed 11.5 knots.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]All eyes were on the Japanese line as it surged forwards. Turrets trained following their targets, officers identified their targets, finding out exactly what they were facing. Four modern battleships and two Italian made armoured cruisers of the latest pattern. The shoal of destroyers accompanying the Japanese fleet kept to the unengaged side of the line, lead by the three light cruisers waited like attack dogs straining at the leash. The Takasago took up position astern of the Kasuga to add her firepower to the battle. [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]The Japanese could not overhaul and cut off the French line because to turn ahead of them and cross the T would risk running too close to shore and running aground on the many sandbanks and reefs off the coast of Vietnam so Admiral Tokioki opted for a simpler plan. Overtake the French ships until they were broadside to broadside and then close the range, engaging with the main guns then secondary armament. The French ships could not turn away, they would not be able to turn towards and they could not run. [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]After the war some officers did comment that it was a risky plan, one that would expose the Japanese ships to excessive damage as the range came down before the weaker French ships would be overwhelmed.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Admiral Maras watched the Japanese ships as they formed up near parallel to his line and guessed the Japanese commanders intent. [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]“Broadside to broadside…does their commander believe we are ships of the line?”[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]His words eased the tension that was on the bridge and drew some chuckles from those present. “We shall give them a..lesson in long range gunnery and force them back, the 1st Squadron is on its way, we shall catch these little yellow men between two fires and defeat them.”[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]The Admiral knew his ships guns could reach out accurately to 7000 yard with their main guns, the secondary batteries had a range of roughly 6400 yards but he knew the British made guns on his opponents ships could reach out to at least 12000 yards but no one in the world had ever practiced at such simply gargantuan ranges.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Reports from the D’Estrees had indicated the Japanese cruiser she’d fought had only opened fire after she had and that her gunnery at long range was inaccurate, rapid but inaccurate. He prayed that the big ships of the Japanese fleet had little practice at these ranges.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]“Signal all ships – OPEN FIRE WITH MAIN BATTERY WHEN HOSTILE SHIPS ARE IN RANGE.”[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]MN Hoche – Leading the French formation – speed 12.5 knots.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Aboard the MN Hoche the lead ship of the French formation her two heavily armoured canet turrets were training slowly on the leading Japanese ship, a powerful looking three funnelled battleship identified as either the Shijishiama or Hatsuse. The bow of the Hoche was dipping into the swells, her low freeboard, a terrible liability in heavy weather was still suffering in the fairly smooth seas of the Far East. The ships pair of funnels had black smoke billowing from them, blown towards the coast of Vietnam by the offshore breeze.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Captain Gilbert listened as the gunnery officer received estimated ranges from the rangefinders dotting the ships hull. In 1899 the ship had undergone a significant overhaul with much of the mass of her overbuilt superstructure was cut down and removed but her fighting strength was not diminished. Up in her massive, overbuilt, armed and armoured fighting top the gunners on the light weapons dotting the circular structure were almost use to the slow sickening swaying roll of the ship after years aboard. [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]The 6 foot rangefinder on top was being used to relay ranges down to the trio of main guns, two 13.4 inch gun in their mighty turrets fore and aft and then the midship 10.8 inch gun in its exposed barbette. Her battery of 5.5 inch guns waited, the gun captains checking the guns, the crew and every part of the weapons under their care. Training was one thing but having a hostile ship in your sights was something very new.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]MN Formidable – Last ship in the French formation – speed 12 knots.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]The Formidable was an old ship, she was meant to be decommissioned within 8 months, her fate was either being cut up or sunk at the next major naval exercise as a gunnery target. Once armed with three 14.6 inch guns she had been rearmed and modernised with two 10.8 inch guns and a battery of three 6.4 inch guns amidships she had been saved from the this fate by this crisis. Remanned and sent off to the Far East with her equally old Sister the Amiral Baudin the ship was still an efficient combat unit despite her age.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]“Captain, enemy ships range estimated at 7200 yards, but we’ve had readings between 6000 yards and 8000 yards in the past 10 minutes.”[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]The Captain nodded curtly, raising his binoculars. “Signal the Flagship –AM ENGAGING THE ENEMY. Main battery. Open Fire!”[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]IJN Shikishima speed 14 knots – leading the Japanese Line.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Captain Percy Scott watched, quietly awed as the French line seemed to explode. In a near perfect ripple, the last ship fired first, then the next in sequence until the ugly ship in the lead the Hoche fired her three big guns. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]‘Amazing, I wonder how they will adjust for the fall of shot? Was the firing sequence to allow each ship to spot its rounds..’[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Back home, the First Lord was hammering into the fleet the importance of continuous aim, which had been developed by Captain Scott and the First Lord also had experimented with long range fire at ranges of 5000 yards with experiments planned next year for 7000 yards, but to see the theory put into practice was something new.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]He had volunteered to be an observer in this conflict, the Japanese had embraced his Continuous Aim methods and were well practiced in the system and this was now a perfect chance to witness his methods at work in an actual battle. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Scott watched impassively as tonnes of high explosive death screamed towards the Japanese line.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
fr_marceau_huge.jpg
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]1) The Battleship Marceau, flagship of the 2nd Squadron and flag of Admiral Maras during the battle of the Tonkin gulf. Here we see the flagship sailing into Cam Ranh Bay as tension built between the French and Japanese.
[/FONT]
 

sharlin

Banned
The Franco-Japanese war – Closing the range.

IJN Shikishima speed 16 knots – leading the Japanese Line.

Over a dozen plumes of water surged into the air as the effects of the first French salvo became clear. Not one of the shells came within a thousand yards of their target, one shell from the Neptune fell wildly short, landing only 2000 yards from the French ship, whilst another from the Hoche landed 3000 yards beyond her target.

The effect of the French guns firing itself was spectacular. Most of the guns were old and used older propellants. They all used slow burning ‘coca powder’ a descendant of the old Black powder used in Nelson’s time. Each firing was heralded by a jet of crimson flame followed by huge clouds of thick black smoke. The guns were old, the propellant just as old, but they were still dangerious.
Aboard the Shikishima Captain Scott was amazed, and already taking mental notes for the discussions that were sure to follow regarding what he had seen. He watched a rippling series of flashes travel down the length of the French ships as their quick firing guns joined in the cannonade.

The Japanese ships guns were silent and Scott had to admire their discipline, but then again they were trained under British methods so why should they not be. There was another report but Scott guessed what it was as the French main guns fired once more, 2 minutes after the initial shot.


MN Magenta –Second Ship in the French line Starboard barbette
fr_neptune_sepia.jpg

1)

The huge breech swung open to accept another 340mm shell. The barrel had already been swabbed to make sure it was clear of any of the old propellant left in either the breech or barrel. The remnants of the smoke from the initial firing were being pulled out by the fans and the fact that the whole mounting was open to the sky. Only a thin steel ‘roof’ protected the crew from shrapnel and gunfire and even this left most of the mount exposed.
The huge shell was hoisted up and fed into the muzzle, followed by the 285 kilogrames of propellant required to fire the shell. As the breech was closed and sealed the whole mounting moved elevating to the precise angle as ordered by the gunnery spotters up in the towering mainmast.

Once in position the guncrew scattered to the edges of the huge barbette, turning away from the gun, covering their ears and opening their mouths.
The Gun Captain, content that all was as it should be, pressed a button. Up in the bridge a green light came on indicating the gun was ready. It was followed seconds later by the fore and aft mounts.

“Tirez!”

The recoil of the cannon firing rocked the mounting filling it black smoke and the stench of propellant. The shell was lost in the general barrage directed at the Japanese ships and the whole process was repeated again.

IJN Shikishima speed 16 knots – leading the Japanese Line.

Both Japanese officers and British observers were quite shocked to see the French shells coming closer. There had already been a hit on the Kasuga from what was assumed to be a 5.5 inch shell that had not burst but there had been no main calibre hits. Yet.

“Admiral, might I suggest you alter course by 10 degrees and open fire. It will give the French something to think about and they are getting awefully close.”

Captain Scotts words were repeated by a Translator although Rear Admiral Tokioki spoke English. As if to underline his words the next French salvo achived a straddle, with huge columns of water sprouting either side of the Japanese line and the Kasuga reported another hit. The Japanese Admiral nodded his consent and the guns fore, aft and amidships roared their first shots at their tormentors.

MN Marceau - 4th ship in the French Line. Speed 12.5 knots.

“Sir! Enemy has opened fire!”
It seemed that half a dozen officers made the report as the event happened. The Admiral had of course watched it happen, his eyes were trained on the Japanese fleet watching for the flash of hits and changes of course.
“Now the fight really beings..”
He thought as the first Japanese broadside landed.


dhm1312.jpg

2)


1) - Here we see the MN Neptune on the morning of the battle, this picture was taken from a Dutch merchant ship. You will note the huge towering superstrucure and massive masts with their many teird structures that mounted light cannons and machine guns to both defend against torpedo boats and 'sweep the decks' of other ships within range.

2) - Here we see a dramatacised view of the Japanese fleet opening fire, lead by the flagship Shikishima. The difference between the two nations warships is immediately evident, with the more modern Japanese ships a generation or two in advance of their French rivals.
 
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Well, I am certainly liking this a bit. A defused Russo-Japanese rivalry would actually work for Russia in the long run because of her position in the Pacific.
 

sharlin

Banned
That last picture sure is intimidating. Really nice. Good update.

Finding pictures of Japanese ships is easy, but trying to find dramatic images of French ships of the era that are not at harbour or 'posing' is a bit tricky. Perhaps its because most of the French ships were as photogenic as an exploding septic tank...they really were freaky looking.
 

Sumeragi

Banned
2) why would Japan allow Russia to win in Korea and focus on Siam/France instead?
Well, the thing is, Russia was willing to lose in Korea to get Manchuria, so not sure how your thoughts work out.

Anyway, my view is that whatever the result, Japan will most likely accommodate Russia's offer and as such will only restrict itself to Korea. This would mean that Nanshin-ron will win out big here, with the IJN getting more funds than it would have in OTL. I can actually see the Choshu clique being weakened a lot here.
 
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