alternatehistory.com

A mini-timeline for you all. It's a scenario I've been kicking around. I'm sure things like it have been done before, but not in precisely the same way. If I do something with this, I'd like to avoid some lesser Sea Mammals, so I'd love some input/plausibility check on the details. I've moved it farther onto the wank end of the scale, so I can get a better idea of how much room I have to maneuver. I'm guessing this is about as good or better than Germany can possibly do. "Better" of course, is relative. Dates are approximate.

1938: Hitler assassinated by a disgruntled citizen. Depending on specific timing, this could be before or after the Munich conference, but let's say it's before Munich and after the Anschluss. Power struggle begins, and first between Himmler and Goering. Ultimately however, the General Staff steps in and overthrows the Nazi government in a successful putsch, followed by a purge of certain Nazi loyalists, especially in the SS and the SA, which are almost completely decapitated and reorganized into the Heer-controlled Wehrmacht.

1939: Though the new junta decides not to go through with the Nazi plans for Czechslovakia, they have irredentist impulses Poland. The Molotov-Ribbantrop pact and subsequent partition of Poland proceeds largely as our timeline, and as OTL provokes war with the Entente. After the invasion of Poland, former German lands are reclaimed and the remainder of Poland organized into a satellite rump state.

1940: Germany may or may not invade Denmark and Norway as OTL (not sure about this, don't know enough about the diplomatic/military situation). France and the low countries fall largely as OTL. Despite feints and perhaps some air raids, Germany does not attempt invasion of Britain, but instead launches an amphibious invasion of Malta in a joint operation with Italy. It uses Malta to wage an air and sea war against British assets in the Mediterranean, and as a staging area for a campaign in North Africa, where fighting has broken out between Italy and the Allies. Germany only formalizes its alliance with Italy, worried that Japan might drag Germany into war with either the USSR, the US, or both.

1941-1942: Invasion of North Africa by the Afrika Korps under Erwin Rommel. Though facing great logistical difficulties, Rommel is able to capture the Suez Canal and force an Allied withdrawal of North Africa. Japan bombs Pearl Harbor and brings the United States into war in the Pacific. Despite a policy of supporting the Allies, President Roosevelt is unable to secure a declaration of war against Germany.

1942: Germany offers Britain peace in exchange for the territories they'd lost in the war, plus Gibraltar, former German East Africa and some territories in the Middle East. Britain refuses. Germany launches a new offensive in the Middle East. Though they fall short of their full objectives, they manage to capture much of the Mandate of Palestine. Germany begins intense negotiations and threats with Franco's Spain about a possible invasion of Gibraltar. Franco refuses to join the neo-Central powers, but is powerless to prevent Germany from using Spanish territory during such an invasion without going to war with Germany, which he is unwilling to do.

1943: The Battle of Gibraltar, which would prove to be the bloodiest of the war. After heavy fighting on sea, air and land, Germany's invasion force, led by Erich von Manstein, succeeds in capturing Britain's all-important gateway to the Mediterranean. Winston Churchill's government collapses, to be replaced by one willing to make concessions in the name of peace. In the Treaty of Berlin, Germany keeps all of its conquered territories, perhaps with some redrawn borders in the Levant. Britain, France, and Belgium cede Cameroon, Gabon, French Congo, Belgian Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania, which become administrative regions of Deutsches Mittelafrika.

Post-1943: The junta reinstates the Kaiser (not Wilhelm but one of his sons) in a ceremonial role. The ensuing regime contains the trappings of democracy, but is primarily an authoritarian system, much like the German Empire, especially during the Silent Dictatorship. German imperial ideology and government incorporates Nazi ideas and structures. Treatment of Jews is inconsistent. Treatment of Slavs is almost uniformly bad, though some Germans regard Czechs as more "civilized." Treatment of women is an odd hybrid between conservative ideas about the primacy of the family and Nazi ideas about the primacy of male camaraderie, and the role of women to bear children for the nation. The state provides support for women who bear children out of wedlock, and opinions differ on how such women should be regarded.

The USSR and Germany had both strengthened the defenses on their frontiers and considered attacking the other, but ultimately decided against it as opposing defenses grew. Stalin decided to pursue a strategy in East Asia, taking Manchuria, Korea, and parts of China from Japan until the end of the Pacific war with American atomic attacks. Conquered territories will become Soviet republics and/or satellite states.

The new "Great Game" is largely played in space, with Germany and the United States constantly outdoing one another in the race of "firsts," and to weaponize space. The USSR and the British Empire maintain smaller presences in space, but pursue active manned space programs. The world is largely divided into spheres of influences between these four powers, who generally do not form lasting alliances with one another, though they will back one another in various crises.

History marches on, scarcely knowing the war it could have fought, or the peace it could have enjoyed.
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