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From A Highly Unusual Election, by Greg Callus

The 2010 General Election in the United Kingdom ended with a result that, although in many ways not completely improbable, surprised nearly everybody after a roller-coaster ride of a campaign. Conservative candidates were dropped due to very unwise statements, the famous “Bigot-gate” episode occurred just before the third debate, even an Elvis Presley walk-on had its part to play, but the pivotal incident happened nearly a month before polling day.


It is widely acknowledged that the debates were crucial. Not just what happened in them – although that’s been widely commented on – but the very fact that they happened and, far more importantly, their composition.
Before the first debate, the standing in the opinion polls had been coming closer, and on the eve of the event itself, they stood as follows (poll of polls):


Conservatives: 38%
Labour: 32%
Liberal Democrats: 18%

No-one had any inkling of what was going to happen.
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