alternatehistory.com

So, it's Yom HaAtzmaut, Israeli Independence day. In honor of that, I present my first TL ever to appear on AH.com, a "What if Israel was ready for the Yom Kippur War?" This is my first attempt at writing alternate history, so any and all non-political critique is welcome.
(Israeli National Anthem for background music)

First, a note. The reason Israel had a hard time in the YKW IOTL was threefold. Firstly, Israel ignored the vast amount of evidence and was caught off guard. This is easily answered ITTL. Secondly, Israel dropped behind in tactics. Both SAM-6s and anti-tank weapons were not taken seriously by Israel. The weapons themselves weren’t the problem; as soon as Israel added infantry to tank brigades, the anti-tank weapons stopped being dangerous and by the end of the war the SAMs were being destroyed on a massive scale. This is harder to answer but can be subsumed within the third and biggest problem; underestimating the Arabs. After the massive victory in 1967 in the Six-Day War, in which all Arab armies collapsed after little fighting, Arab armies were seen as very weak. This led to both of the above. So, in this TL, Arab armies are just not underestimated (let’s just say ASBs). With that in mind, let’s start.



On September 25 1973, King Hussein secretly flies to Israel to meet Golda Meir. This happened IOTL, but the intelligence community dismissed it. ITTL, the Israeli army prepares for war. At 2:00 AM on October 1, the Mossad presents positive evidence from a reliable source of the impending attack (again, this happened IOTL, but was ignored), and Israel attacks on dawn of October 1. Israel attacks Port Fuad (the only Egyptian land on the east side of the Suez), and launches a three-pronged assault into Syria; north to the Syrian Hermon, northeast towards Sa’sa’, and east towards Nawa. On the southern front, Israel captures Port Fuad, and the Egyptians attempt to cross the canal. The Israelis let them do it, grind them up against the canal, and then destroy the bridgeheads. After the Battle of the Suez, the southern front falls into skirmishing. Up north, by the end of the first day, the Syrian Hermon is captured, the assault northeast gets to Khan Arnabe, and the eastern assault gets bogged down in Ash Shajarah, Ain Thakar, and Grgis. On the second day, the northeast assault gets bogged down near Duriq, but the eastern attack breaks through and captures Nawa. On the night of the second day, Israel attacks down from the Hermon towards Beit Jinn and Bait Saber, and capture Dayr Makir. The third day begins with Israeli attacks on Kanaker and Duriq; by afternoon, the Syrian army is encircled in Sa’sa’. After this, the center of the Syrian line collapses, and Israeli troops rapidly move towards Damascus. By this point, Israeli soldiers in the south have reached Al-Yadudah (split), Dael, Khirbet Ghazaleh, and Buser al-Harir. Israel halts there to get north as fast as possible. At night on the third day, Israeli troops under Ariel Sharon cross the Suez without being ordered (IOTL Sharon was known as a man with a disdain for authority, willingness to take risks, and creative interpretations of orders); by the time he reports in in the morning, the Egyptian army is falling back from Abou Sultan. Sharon is recalled immediately, but Israel is afraid that withdrawal will be seen as a sign of weakness, so they push, but not strongly. At noon on the fourth day, a UN cease-fire goes into effect, leaving Israeli troops in Khan Alsheh, Al-Kiswah, Al-Adleyeh, and Al-Ghuzlaniyah right outside Damascus, and threatening Daraa and As Suwayda along the north, and in a position to take Ismailia to the south. The Four-Day War is over. (Note: All the cities mentioned here are real. You can find them on Google Maps.)

(Second Note: After the war itself, detail drops significantly.)

Sadat’s main reason for launching the war was to regain the Egyptian military’s honor, which he saw as accomplished; the Egyptian army had not collapsed, and (from his point of view) substantially slowed down the Israeli advance westward. As such, Sadat was more than willing to negotiate, and on October 5 Israel withdrew from the western side of the Suez, keeping only Port Fuad. Syria, however, refused to negotiate until Israel withdrew to the Purple Line (borders before the war). Israel offered to withdraw to Nawa and Sa’sa’, but Syria refused this compromise offer. As such, the northern front remained tense. The Syrians used the time to rebuild their army. On October 19, Iraqi troops showed up to bolster the Syrians, and the tension erupted. On October 20, under uncertain circumstances, the cease-fire was broken, and the Battle of Damascus broke out. However, the cease-fire was maintained along the rest of the front (with the exception of some fire exchange in Al-Yadudah), as Israel didn’t want more fighting and the Arabs wanted to focus where their chances were best without being distracted. The Battle of Damascus lasted six days, until on October 25, a UN resolution put a stop to the fighting and forced Israel to the compromise lines they had offered. The battle had massive civilian casualties. The Soviets, meanwhile, fed up with Syria (both because of sparking a war with Israel (which IOTL the Soviets had advised them against) and because of refusing to negotiate), forced them to the negotiating table. With international pressure weighing against Israel, Israel only took the Syrian Hermon.

After this, political tension began rising between the established Labor party (slightly left) and a new coalition of Likud (a right-wing party under Begin that had been slowly rising since 1951 and IOTL would pass Labor in 1974 and take control of Israeli politics in 1977), Gibor V’Naaratz (strong and esteemed, a new party formed by Sharon based on criticism that the Labor government had taken too little out of a massive victory), and the Mizrahi (religious Zionist) parties. Ben-Gurion’s death in December 1973 officially ended the Labor domination of Israeli politics that had lasted since the state’s founding and began a period where Labor and the Likud bloc (the aforementioned right-wing coalition, so named since Likud was the largest of them) fiercely fought for control of Israeli politics (Israel is a multi-party parliamentary democracy, meaning that unless one party had a substantial majority nothing could really be done and that, even without voters switching, the majority could switch with smaller parties switching sides. TLDR; nothing can happen).

In 1979, the Iranian Revolution swept Islamists to power in Iran. ITTL, due to the Soviets losing interest in Syria, the revolution spreads to Iraq and Syria. On December 15 1979, a terrorist attack on a Hanukkah party begins the Black Winter, a massive series of terrorist attacks throughout Israel. Likud is swept into power in early 1980 in response. The attacks fizzle out in February but start again in August. Begin, now the prime minister, decides that he has to stop the attacks at any cost. He makes an alliance with the Christian Lebanese in the Lebanese Civil War and the Kurds, oppressed by the Islamic governments. The Levantine War begins on September 14 1980 with simultaneous Kurdish uprisings and an Israeli attack, led by Israeli General Zvika Greengold (He was in the OTL YKW, and was EPIC). In addition, Israel takes further control of the West Bank to stop further attacks. The Islamist armies fight fiercely but are slowly pushed back. They refuse to stop fighting, however, causing the war to drag on. (Iran does not officially join the war as an insurance policy in case of loss.) The war lasts nearly a year until, on August 11 1981, with Israeli and Kurdish troops occupying almost all of Syria and threatening Baghdad, the Levantine War ends.

Israel made no bones about what they wanted in the negotiations. Kurdistan gained independence, and almost all of Syria and much of Iraq was taken in the deal. It was Israel’s biggest victory ever, and an utter humiliation for the Islamists. In the aftermath, Israel and Kurdistan formed the Middle Eastern Democratic Federation (MEDF, or Padbah after the Hebrew acronym), and Israel forced Lebanon into it too.

The way the MEDF worked was that there were three levels of members; major nations (at this point Israel and Kurdistan), minor nations (Lebanon, Cyprus (Cyprus joined in 1983 after Northern Cyprus declared independence, wanting protection), Aleppo, Damascus, Homs, and Latakia (the entire Syrian coast)), and territory (all taken land outside of Lebanon, Kurdistan, the city-states in Syria, and all of the geographic Golan Heights which was annexed by Israel). Major nations had total control of internal affairs (outside of the requirement to be democratic), minor nations had control of internal affairs with the exception of laws passed by the MEDF which every minor nation had to follow, and territories were directly governed by the MEDF. The territories were divided into administrative districts based on population. The districts had de jure independence, but not de facto independence. The MEDF was ruled by a council, with every major nation getting 10 representatives, every minor nation getting 8 representatives, and every administrative district of the territories getting 4. Foreign policy was only decided by the MEDF as a whole.

In response, Iran and Iraq formed the Islamic League (IL). A cold war began between the MEDF and the IL - the Mideast Cold War. NATO and the Warsaw Pact agreed in 1982 to stay neutral in any wars between the two.

In 1983, Israel and Egypt finally signed an official peace. Israel retreated five miles from the Suez, giving Egypt control of the Suez. Tentative ties begin developing.

In 1984, the cold war blew up. USA-USSR proxy wars exploded in frequency, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa (outside of the Horn of Africa). West Africa blew up (Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Togo, and Sierra Leone in the American sphere; Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ghana, and Benin in the Soviet), the Congo region collapsed into a mosaic of tribal states split between “democracy” and “communism”, a communist Boer revolt began, the Great Lakes region fell into pretty much constant warring, etc. In addition to Africa, South America became increasingly torn by conflict. The Cold War is heating up.

In 1985, the Islamists, desperate to gain more strength, started a revolt in Egypt. The revolt spread quickly, and Egypt desperately asked for MEDF troops to intervene. The MEDF did. The Egyptian Civil War raged until a cease-fire in 1986 divided Egypt into two; the Republic of the Nile in the east and the Islamic Republic of Alexandria in the west. Both sides joined their respective alliances (RotN as a major nation). Following this, a secret deal in 1986 between the MEDF and the IL agreed to stop expansion outside of the middle east, stopping the spread into Africa. Both sides then began glancing at the spot they could still spread to; Arabia.

In 1989, the First Saudi Civil War began with an Islamic revolt in Mecca and Medina. This was followed by a democratic revolt in Tabuk and Sakaka. The brutal civil war lasted for two years and ended in 1991 with Saudi Arabia being divided into the Islamic Republic of Mecca and Medina (southwest), the Republic of Arabia (North, reaching just to Riyadh, major in MEDF), and a rump Saudi Arabia in the southeast. Even before the war was over, in 1990, the Yemeni Civil War (pretty much running straight 1962 through to now with occasional breaks) re-erupted with new sponsors. The next five years would be a series of wars in the Arabian peninsula; the Omani War (1991-1992) ending with Oman and the UAE joining the MEDF as the Republic of Oman (Oman and southern UAE, minor) and the Republic of Dubai (Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and that peninsula, major); the Qatar War (1992-1993), ending with Qatar and Bahrain uniting into the Islamic Republic of Qatar, the Kuwait War, ending with Kuwait being split between Iran, Iraq, and the Republic of Kuwait (MEDF, minor). In 1994, a terrorist attack killing the entire Saudi royal family led to the brief but brutal Second Saudi Civil War. Finally, in late 1994, a cease-fire ending both the Yemeni and Second Saudi Civil Wars was signed, ending the Arabian Wars.

The main reason that the Islamists agreed to sign the cease-fire was distraction; in mid-1994, the Soviets invaded Afghanistan for similar reasons as in OTL. This led to a massive uprising throughout Turkestan and the Islamic Caucuses, supported by the IL. This, in turn, led to developing relations between Israel and the USSR, culminating in 1995 with the Aleppo Agreement, which let the Soviet Union rent docks at Latakia for it’s Mediterranean navy, created trade links, and allowed Soviet Jews to freely emigrate to Israel. The USA, horrified that the Soviets were creating ties with Israel, rushed to give Israel trade and military benefits. This, together with the influx of educated Soviet Jews, created an economic boom in Israel. However, in 1997, the economic boom came to an abrupt end, and Israel was suddenly put under threat of destruction.

On November 29 1997, a massive parade was held in Jerusalem in commemoration of the UN decision to give Israel independence. This parade was bombed by Palestinian forces, killing over a thousand Israelis. This was the first major terrorist attack since the Black Summer, and it sparked the Palestinian Revolt. The uprising rapidly spread into Jordan, with the Jordanian monarchy collapsing in early 1998. This is the last neutral country in the middle east. Israel was caught completely off guard by the revolt, and for the first six weeks, struggled to contain the Palestinians, and came nearly to the brink of collapse; however, Israel managed to turn the tables in the seventh week of the war. It was still hard fighting, but by mid-1998, the Palestinians in the West Bank were defeated, The Palestinians still continued fighting from Jordan, forcing Israel to push into Jordan proper. Finally, in early 1999, the Palestinians were decisively defeated. In a controversial decision, Israel annexed much of Jordan, establishing a tiny Palestinian puppet state in the northeast. Israel then gave major financial incentive for Palestinians to move there and built infrastructure there. 75% of the remaining Palestinians did. This was the last war to seriously threaten Israel. The economic boom continued after the war. In 2000, the MEDF had a larger GDP, ignoring natural resources, than all of Africa combined.

But the Soviet Union is weakening from six years of hard fighting, and things in Eastern Europe are reaching the boiling point.


(Map by @Coliop-Kolchovo)



I have more, but I want to refine this first. Again, any and all non-political criticism is accepted.

Everything is appreciated. Thanks in advance!
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