The Forge of Weyland

I'm not sure of Leopold's thinking here - if Belgium surrenders the British & French will just politely leave & the Germans will let them go preventing further damage. But more likely they keep fighting in Belgium but no longer having to take into account Belgian sensibilities about the amount of damage to the country.
He's had a mental breakdown. It's lost. It's all over. Further fighting is completely and utterly pointless and futile. He doesn't want to take any more of the SHEER HORROR OF IT.
Or that's what I'd guess his point of view/mental state is.
His options to JUST MAKE IT STOP are to abdicate/hand over to someone else (at least temporarily) or to surrender. He chose to try the second option. It looks like his government told him that he had made a mistake and that he had in fact opted for the first option, but not before it cost Antwerp.
 
He's had a mental breakdown. It's lost. It's all over. Further fighting is completely and utterly pointless and futile. He doesn't want to take any more of the SHEER HORROR OF IT.
Or that's what I'd guess his point of view/mental state is.
His options to JUST MAKE IT STOP are to abdicate/hand over to someone else (at least temporarily) or to surrender. He chose to try the second option. It looks like his government told him that he had made a mistake and that he had in fact opted for the first option, but not before it cost Antwerp.
That's a pretty good summary of it.
 
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Im also looking forward to whatever unpleasantness the RN has on store for the German paras.
Time for a little night time cruise captain.

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30th May 1940
30th May

Belgium


After dark the Royal Navy intervenes with the German effort to move more supplies and equipment to the Terneuzen bridghead. The initial attacks are from the destroyers HMS Basilisk and HMS Grafton, who find three small ships in the estuary, leaving all three sinking. They were joined by the destroyers HMS Grenade and HMS Havant, who were escorting the monitor HMS Erebus. While the 4" guns of the lighter ships engaged any craft they found, and caused serious damage to the unloading being carried out at Terneuzen, the 15" shells of the monitor were first aimed at the heavy guns emplaced to stop this sort of attack.

The German artillery had been intended to shell ships during daylight, and were not well suited to night work, especially as this was the first time they had actually tried to engage a moving target. The attempts to hit the fast-moving destroyers proved futile, although two 155mm shells did hit the Erebus. The monitor had been designed for coastal bombardment, and the two shells did little to affect her operation. The only real problem for the ship was identifying targets, it was becoming obvious that shore bombardment was very dependent on target spotting and fire correction. Still, a 15" shell allows some margin of error, and some hours later the job of ferrying supplies over would have to be started from scratch.

The ships left at around midnight, the destroyers escorting the slow monitor, wary of e-boat and submarine attacks. The urgent telephone conversations between the artillery and their Luftwaffe liaison during the night did lead to an attack soon after daw, by two squadrons of Stukas escorted by Me109's. This had been anticipated, moving at 11knots the old monitor was no destroyer, and by dawn the small convoy was under cover of RAF Spitfires. When the Luftwaffe finally found the ships - navigation over water was still not a speciality of the dive bomber squadrons - the escort broke up the attack, shooting down four Stukas and two Me109's for the loss of three Spitfires. The disruption to the dive-bombing runs meant that no hits were scored, even on HMS Erebus, although the old monitor was shaken by a number of near misses.


The naval action had helped the situation around the bridgehead for the Allied retreat. While little damage had been done to the men on the ground, the damage caused to the supply meant that earlier plans to push south and cut of the French divions pulling back were shelved. In retrospect this was probably a good thing for the Germans, as one of 1st Armoured's tank regiments and a battalion of armoured infantry were being held to counterattack such at attack. As it was, the French continued to fall back to the new river line in as reasonable an order as could be expected under the circumstances.

Atlantic

Like the French, the British too want to get the gold needed for American purchases safe in Canada. Operation Fish involves the battleship HMS Revenge, troop transport HMS Antonia, and troop transport HMS Duchess of Richmond which carry £40 million, £10 million, and £10 million in gold, respectively. The ships departed from Britain bound for Halifax, Nova Scotia. The gold was destined for the vaults of the Bank of Canada in Ottowa for safe keeping.

America

Roosevelt asks Congress for considerable funds to strengthen the US Armed forces.(OTL the Two-Ocean navy act, signed 20/7). There has been considerable discussion on how much should be asked for. The initial proposals had been for a relatively modest increase in funding, to allow for a more modernised navy and Army Air Force. This was seen as necessary, both to replace overage ships and to allow for a stronger posture in the Pacific, as it was obvious the Royal Navy and MN would be preoccupied in the Atlantic and European waters.

The nearly-successful panzer thrust into France, and the obvious use of armour by both sides, as led to an additional request to modernise and strengthen the Army. In particular, an Armoured division is being considered. It has been pointed out that Japan is making considerable use of tanks in China, and America needs such a division, if only to develop tactics for the use of armour and the industrial capability to build more tanks if needed. France has been negotiating for some time to get tanks built in the USA, and there have been problems getting this arrangement started. The current proposal is to build or take over a factory to build the S-40 and the latest version of the Char B, with first deliveries taking place next spring. This is now seen as a helpful step in getting domestic tank production established in the USA, and the Administration is now pushing to expedite the factory.

The naval part of the new program will expand upon the 1938 Naval Act, which had been intended to increase the strength of the navy by around 20%. However this had been with the assumption that the Royal Navy and the MN would have forces in the Pacific area. The new bill intends to effectively increase the US Navy by an additional 20%; in fact the building program would actually increase the strength by closer to 30%, but it allows for older and obsolete vessels to be put into reserve or scrapped.

The Bill asks for four more battleships (one more of the Iowa class, and the first three of the Montana class), three more aircraft carriers (the third to be of a new, larger type), eight new cruisers as well as two 'large cruisers' of the Alaska class, 50 destroyers and 15 submarines. Aviation is also a beneficiary; the bill allows for 6,000 more aircraft for the Navy and the Army Air Corps. Additional funds are requested for new facilities, ordnance factories and supplies for all three services. Finally funding is requested to form an Armoured division, although first the tanks for it have to be designed and built.

The initial idea of the Administration had been to ask for a considerably larger approriation, to allow America to defend itself in the situation the Royal Navy or MN were no longer able to act, or, even worse, been taken over by a hostile power. However as the current situation in France is seen as serious, rather than critical, Roosevelt has been told that a massive appropriation is unlikely to get enough support to pass, and it would be better to be more restrained now. If the situation in Europe deteriorates, a supplementary Bill can be passed. To some extent it is an academic argument, as the time needed to get the ships ordered actually out to sea, and the other equipment built and men trained in it will occupy some years - a larger request could only be met with a resultant serious effect on some civilian sectors of the economy, and the world situation is not yet sufficiently serious to make this acceptable.
 
The initial idea of the Administration had been to ask for a considerably larger approriation, to allow America to defend itself in the situation the Royal Navy or MN were no longer able to act, or, even worse, been taken over by a hostile power. However as the current situation in France is seen as serious, rather than critical, Roosevelt has been told that a massive appropriation is unlikely to get enough support to pass
Quite. IMO the Two Ocean Navy Act was only a result of the Fall of France. Without that, this looks far more plausible.

Of course, you keep insisting that France could get fall, in which case they can, as pointed out, pass a supplemental bill.
 
Now 20 days into the war and the Germans will have totally shot their bolt.

They have several fundamental issues coming home.

The LW will be at or below 50% operational strength with significant aircrew losses and a high tempo of operations falling off dramatically, Physically they are just worn out air and ground crew compounding operational readiness problems. The fall off in sortie rate is going to take them down to the same levels as the French at start of the war, and with fewer aircraft available to begin with the demands will be to get something in the air. So the 250 Bombers is pretty much maximum effort after which many of the aircraft involved will be unflyable for several days.


They have a massive ammunition problem. OTL there were severe limitations on shell stocks and production which will not be quickly solved the Germans needed the pause they had planned for in the original plan to restock. There are two issues, one is steel production the other transportation. The level of expenditure so far will have fired off most of the on hand and resupply depends on Dobbin trotting along at 10km per day from the railhead. The manufacturing problem means they cannot supply all the armies to a full level. So its now only on the only 4 rounds per battery per day with the specific authorisation of the divisional commander. The good news is using 105s as At guns and opening up to people with effective CB fire means you now have many fewer guns and trained artillerymen anyway. The total inventory for 15cm gins is around 1000, with 600 produced in 1940, the Panzer and motorised divsions has 1100 105 between them and most of those allocated to the Pz and Motorised divsions that fought out of the pocket will have been lost. And 4,800 across the whole army.

They have been doing WW1 style infantry assaults on major fortifications with WW2 levels of automatic weapons in the defence. So the assault units will have been taking 25-50% casualties in the infantry units. With the Allied taking far lower levels ( IMHO the Germans would NOT have been able to penetrate the Antwerp defences if manned they showed little no ability to take fortified positions frontally at any point in the war and a marked reluctance to try). Sevastopol which is just about the only example of an assault holds out for 9 months Odessa 2 months and it costs the Axis nearly 100k casualties. And unlike both of those the Germans are not supporting the attacks with Armour – Stugs, because they don’t have any. OFC most of the dead and wounded will be the best leaders and overall troop quality will be declining.

Germany simply does not have replacements available. So if you want to attack its unsupported panzers vs artillery and anti tank defences backed by tanks with air support where increasingly you do not or Fanatical Charges by untrained men against machine guns, artillery backed by tanks you cannot defeat with air support. Unless you can manhandle a 20 foot long 2 ton 10.5 cm artillery piece forward – or persuade Dobbin to do so and not die ( see previous about automatic weapons, artillery etc) you attack. The anti tank defences part is important. If the germans are attacking they will be running into – not French tanks but a French anti tank defence so cunning maneuvers to get side shots actually means exposing yourself to unseen AT weapons that can defeat any armour you have at battlefield ranges, while their supporting MGs slaughter the recovery crews you send forward, if any have managed to get past the deluge of French artillery fire.

And use of the Mobile formations at all means you have to move POL up from finite stocks into an airspace where you cannot guarantee its security from observation.

The OKH is quite capable of continuing attacks in the belief that just one more push is all it takes bit here the senior leadership starts with a high degree of respect for the French and British armies from WW1 and has no reason to suppose they will collapse, which they did with Russia because of 1917 and the OTL defeat of France.

Strategically the Steel problem will come up much earlier. Basically there are 5 organisations in Germany giving priority orders to the steel industry – OKH, OKL, OKM, Todt Organisation and the 4 Year Plan. Spreading production demand across Armaments in general ( rifles guns etc) Ammunition ( shells bombs ammo), Shipbuilding, Tanks, Vehicles ( so forex OKH may downplay trucks in favour of tanks but the LW still wants trucks to move its bombs from factory to airfield). Todt Organisation has responsibility for production of armaments in the future and will be wanting rebar for new factories ( and trains and rails to go to the new factories) the 4 year plan is tasked with amongst other things establishing Autarky needs steel for tractors and synthetic oil plants. Which are now an even greater priority as Germany does not actually have any money with which to buy Romanian oil.

Bomber command's orders as at April 13 1940 gave the priorities as German Troop Concentrations, Rail Yards and Oil plants in the Ruhr. Portals personal wrinkle on this was to emphasise transportation over industrial targets ( something like 80% of sorties in 1940 were against transportation targets) But this time they have nice static German forces they can bomb. So he The Biggest Baddest Bomber Baron will be prefectly happy to carpet bomb the LOC of the german armies.
 
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