The Footprint of Mussolini - TL

[Herr Frage]

I think Balbo is very good choice for the next duce since he can help slow down fracture between Democratic and Fascist that is greatly needed currently.

I expect Balbo will have a number of tactical successes; and get a lot done by force of personal charisma too. But I think his reign will see the Fascist system enter its irreversible strategic decline. A big part being endless wars in places like East Africa, the minority rule states, Latin America, and Greece. Loss of the Red Menace, and Italians that increasingly question the system even if they still hold Mussolini in high regard. Possibly the Church will get a Vatican 2 equivalent and increasingly be a problem. Some allies might abandon them as well while others become major liabilities doing more harm than good.

I think Balbo will die in power, but by the time that happens a lot of disillusionment will have built up and discontent with the status quo. And with Balbo gone people will start demand change inside and outside the RA more than ever before with a new head of the regime. There will probably be a third Duce, buy they will fall inside ten years, either trying to reform the system and losing control of the process and their seat, or a hardiner who gets overthrown trying to hold the line would be my guess.

 

[thanix01]

On another note Thailand in this TL seem much more stable than our timeline. I mean that is not a high bar to past since we have 19 (I maybe wrong) since our country was born.

So I guess the Fascist is able to maintain order way better Than constant switch between democracy and military Junta.

 

[Lalli]

On another note Thailand in this TL seem much more stable than our timeline. I mean that is not a high bar to past since we have 19 (I maybe wrong) since our country was born.

So I guess the Fascist is able to maintain order way better Than constant switch between democracy and military Junta.

Is it possible that Fascism could survive in Thailand to 2020? I think that it is possible when Thailand has probably quiet good relationships with neighbors and Fascist regime can express itself as stabilising power and preserver of royal traditions.

 

[thanix01]

Is it possible that Fascism could survive in Thailand to 2020? I think that it is possible when Thailand has probably quiet good relationships with neighbors and Fascist regime can express itself as stabilising power and preserver of royal traditions.

Hmm Phibunsongkhram is rather republican him selves so I am not sure about preserving royal tradition.

Unlike many of military coup post Sarit Thanarat of OTL that tend to be pro monarchy.

Plus in Thailand I kinda feel like we have tendency to follow strong man figure even in OTL, so I assume Fascism will be pretty popular even post 2020 ITL.

 

[GalileoFigaroMagnifico]

Actually, bold of you to assume that Russia will stay in one, ideologically unified piece - given the hints scattered ahead, whose to say that Russia won't fracture into any number of smaller, ideologically disparate chunks; Malenkov, if he survives, might try creating some sort of Orthodox Christian/Marxist communist theocracy, maybe taking a few hints from Tolstoy, the RA might try and set up a fascist Russian state under a core of White generals, the West might restore the Tsar at the head of a democratic regime, all with a small Red rump in Siberia or the Far East... Really, there's a good chance Russia might just fracture because of this.

If that happens, it might spur on the fall of Fascism in Italy, as the then-Duce might cede authority in the fear of Italy ending up like Russia, creating Italian Gorby.

 

[Herr Frage]

Hmm Phibunsongkhram is rather republican him selves so I am not sure about preserving royal tradition.

Unlike many of military coup post Sarit Thanarat of OTL that tend to be pro monarchy.

Perhaps, but the RA generally has been preserving and restoring monarchy(Turkey being a major exception) with a few exceptions so he may adopt that stance for pragmatism.

 

[Icedaemon]

Actually, bold of you to assume that Russia will stay in one, ideologically unified piece - given the hints scattered ahead, whose to say that Russia won't fracture into any number of smaller, ideologically disparate chunks; Malenkov, if he survives, might try creating some sort of Orthodox Christian/Marxist communist theocracy, maybe taking a few hints from Tolstoy, the RA might try and set up a fascist Russian state under a core of White generals, the West might restore the Tsar at the head of a democratic regime, all with a small Red rump in Siberia or the Far East... Really, there's a good chance Russia might just fracture because of this.

If that happens, it might spur on the fall of Fascism in Italy, as the then-Duce might cede authority in the fear of Italy ending up like Russia, creating Italian Gorby.

In the case of such a fracture, rather than Siberia and the far east remaining red there might be some ethnostates for the larger minorities, or vaguely like-minded groups thereof. Depending on what soviet policies were vis-a-vis non-antisemitic internal ethnic cleansing, deportations and resettlements in this timeline, the ethnostates might have a better chance, or an even worse one, in this timeline.

 

[Blorg]

Actually, bold of you to assume that Russia will stay in one, ideologically unified piece - given the hints scattered ahead, whose to say that Russia won't fracture into any number of smaller, ideologically disparate chunks; Malenkov, if he survives, might try creating some sort of Orthodox Christian/Marxist communist theocracy, maybe taking a few hints from Tolstoy, the RA might try and set up a fascist Russian state under a core of White generals, the West might restore the Tsar at the head of a democratic regime, all with a small Red rump in Siberia or the Far East... Really, there's a good chance Russia might just fracture because of this.

If that happens, it might spur on the fall of Fascism in Italy, as the then-Duce might cede authority in the fear of Italy ending up like Russia, creating Italian Gorby.

I never said they would remain one piece.

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

Perhaps, but the RA generally has been preserving and restoring monarchy(Turkey being a major exception) with a few exceptions so he may adopt that stance for pragmatism.

Which is ironic given that Mussolini was pro-Republican.

 

[thanix01]

Though it is to be noted that Plaek Phibunsongkhram situation is a bit more complex since the reason he even get in power is by being a part of Khana Ratsadorn 1932 revolution that want to reduce monarch power from absolute monarchy to constitutional one. He even participate in putting down monarchist rebellion.

So our royal family should still exist but I doubt Phibunsongkhram will grant them any more power since he was part of the fight to reduce that power him selves.

Also he practically create Thai identity so I assume he can find other way.

I feel really bad for King Rama 9th ITL...

 

[Herr Frage]

Which is ironic given that Mussolini was pro-Republican.

So Ciano indirectly saved the Thai monarchy too?

If the Fascist Thai government last to even the 70s, I will be curious how different Thailands development will be with without the changes of government in the time frame OTL.

 

[thanix01]

So Ciano indirectly saved the Thai monarchy too?

If the Fascist Thai government last to even the 70s, I will be curious how different Thailands development will be with without the changes of government in the time frame OTL.

Honestly single continuous government without various interruption by coups or change of plan after an election could mean various long term plan could be done, what kind of plan? I have no idea but long term project should be easier to do.

Plus with Fascist like to do bombastic project like filling Qattara depression we might get mega project like Kra canal. Especially since it will allow RA to bypass Singapore which is increasingly more important with the continuously worsening relation with the democratic world. Plus with all the oil money RA have such project should not be too hard to fund.

 

[Bookmark1995]

Honestly single continuous government without various interruption by coups or change of plan after an election could mean various long term plan could be done, what kind of plan? I have no idea but long term project should be easier to do.

Plus with Fascist like to do bombastic project like filling Qattara depression we might get mega project like Kra canal. Especially since it will allow RA to bypass Singapore which is increasingly more important with the continuously worsening relation with the democratic world. Plus with all the oil money RA have such project should not be too hard to fund.

Such projects can also end up becoming the white elephants that hint at the corrupt system is on its last legs.

 

[thanix01]

Such projects can also end up becoming the white elephants that hint at the corrupt system is on its last legs.

If RA provide the fund I assume they will send supervisor too thus as long as there are multiple observer it should lessen possibility of corruption.

Will there be corruption? Of course it will happen, but having observer could potentially reduce it.

 

[Bookmark1995]

If RA provide the fund I assume they will send supervisor too thus as long as there are multiple observer it should lessen possibility of corruption.

Will there be corruption? Of course it will happen, but having observer could potentially reduce it.

Remember that authoritarian governments, while they put on an image of "efficiency", are still more badly run than democracies.

 

[thanix01]

Remember that authoritarian governments, while they put on an image of "efficiency", are still more badly run than democracies.

Well that depend. Even democratic OTL Thailand is also corrupt.

To some people in OTL Thailand under Junta or democratic is corrupt in their own way.

Under democratic system politician stuffed various office with their own people that often end up being corrupt. While under Junta they come down really hard on corruption on various branch of government thus reducing corruption in those area while turning blind eye to corruption within the military.

So I guess Fascist or Democracy in Thailand is both equally corrupt. So I can’t say democracy in Thailand will be less corrupt.

 

[Bookmark1995]

Well that depend. Even democratic OTL Thailand is also corrupt.

To some people in OTL Thailand under Junta or democratic is corrupt in their own way.

Under democratic system politician stuffed various office with their own people that often end up being corrupt. While under Junta they come down really hard on corruption on various branch of government thus reducing corruption in those area while turning blind eye to corruption within the military.

So I guess Fascist or Democracy in Thailand is both equally corrupt. So I can’t say democracy in Thailand will be less corrupt.

Thailand isn't really democratic, considering that coups seem to be a yearly event in that country.

 

[Hecatee]

Kra canal dug using a string of italian nukes (used so as to test new variants and their power, cheaper than exploding them just as test material... ) ?

 

[Bookmark1995]

I expect Balbo will have a number of tactical successes; and get a lot done by force of personal charisma too. But I think his reign will see the Fascist system enter its irreversible strategic decline. A big part being endless wars in places like East Africa, the minority rule states, Latin America, and Greece. Loss of the Red Menace, and Italians that increasingly question the system even if they still hold Mussolini in high regard. Possibly the Church will get a Vatican 2 equivalent and increasingly be a problem. Some allies might abandon them as well while others become major liabilities doing more harm than good.

I think Balbo will die in power, but by the time that happens a lot of disillusionment will have built up and discontent with the status quo. And with Balbo gone people will start demand change inside and outside the RA more than ever before with a new head of the regime. There will probably be a third Duce, buy they will fall inside ten years, either trying to reform the system and losing control of the process and their seat, or a hardiner who gets overthrown trying to hold the line would be my guess.

The TTL Democratization of Italy could go one of two ways:

Taiwan-style transition: A moderate within the Fascist Party could come to power and slowly crack the system open, with another successor opening the door to democracy.

Carnation Revolution: By the TTL 1970s, a generation of young Italians with few memories of WWII, is being tossed into a futile and costly colonial war. They protest this war peacefully, but the protestors are shot or imprisoned. Gradually, Italians wake up to the cruelty of the system in place.

 

[thanix01]

Thailand isn't really democratic, considering that coups seem to be a yearly event in that country.

I mean when we have actual election corruption is still a problem no matter which party win.