The Footprint of Mussolini - TL
I remember my grandpa telling me about how he and his fellows in Gojjam celebrated the end of fighting with Italy and restoration of Haile Selassie IOTL - with drinking and firing off their rifles into the sky with cries of "Victory!" - but I do wonder how that ends ITTL. Probably not as well.
"Yes native, even you can play a part in this glorious nation. Service guarantees citizenship."
I see Thailand as being the token "good teammate" of the RA. So far, they tend to avoid most of the drama the RA gets involved with. If they keep this up, the rest of the world will begin treating Thailand as their "go-to guy" for whenever the RA creates a mess and diplomacy is needed. This is pretty useful for building international good will. When the RA finally falls apart, Thailand would probably be smart enough to have a golden parachute ready and survive the fall with minimal trouble. When asked, they could spin the story in their favor and get away with it.
Bookmark1995
Banned
I think TTL Ethiopians will also be celebrating the withdrawal of Italian forces.
It is the transition toward independence that might be very, very troubled.
The best case scenario is an elderly Haile Selassie returning to his country in the 1970s and pushing for reconciliation with Italy.
The worst case scenario is the Derg, or something like it, coming to power, engaging in a policy of vengeance, and ganking the economy.
Apparantly Thailand surpress Muslim in our southern part ITTL during the Arab war so not exactly clean hand either. Cleaner than many but not clean.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Italians installed a loyal puppet to retain influence in that part of Africa and even though Haile Selassie and the Patriots were quite forgiving IOTL, I don't know if that'd be the case for TTL's Ethiopia. With the butterflies that this timeline has, I doubt the Derg are coming to power any time soon.
Thats gotta be weird flex.
"Fuck you Britian, fuck you France, fuck you Italy... we're cool America, see you over at butter chicken lunch next Tuesday... fuck you Germany, fuck you USSR..."
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As far as Africa goes, I give Portugal the best odds of surviving, if only because they have an actual roadmap for integration and assimilation. Plus, integrating Angola and Mozambique into the metropole are Portugal's best shot at true economic might. Eventually though, I see it as the African tail wagging the European dog.
Rhodesia too for a much lesser extent... frankly, avoiding Mugabe alone would be an improvement.
South Africa... an openly fascist South Africa? Its gonna be ugly. Best case, a civil war, then a rump state of Cape and Namibia. Worst? It gets ugly. Real ugly.
Rhodesia too for a much lesser extent... frankly, avoiding Mugabe alone would be an improvement.
South Africa... an openly fascist South Africa? Its gonna be ugly. Best case, a civil war, then a rump state of Cape and Namibia. Worst? It gets ugly. Real ugly.
Bookmark1995
Banned
Well I don't see that assimilation think really...working out. OTL Portugal already had this assimilado system in place. But it was very much a failure, since there were almost no native Mozambicans or Angolans who had any college degrees by the mid-1970s. The famed statistician Hans Rosling talked about how when he worked as a doctor in Mozambique in the early 1980s, many of his aids didn't even know how to READ.
In all likelihood, the colonial authorities are going to do little do actually cultivate a native class that could govern. The divisions between poor natives and wealthy colonialist will continue to grow.
Perhaps...but some might argue the racism and paternalism of Rhodesians created radicals like Mugabe. Since Ian Smith seems to be taking off the kid gloves, more radical nationalists might come to power.
Afrikaner militant: Concentration camp? What concentration camp? These natives love their homeland!
Certainly possible. But I honestly expect the Catholic Church to face a major war of ideas in its ranks between AntiFascists and the ProFascists.
In such scenario it may be clergy taking part in exposing the going ons in the settler colonies. A silver lining to those atrocities is it may trigger calls to action in other parts of the world much sooner and the church establishment ultimately taking a harsher stance as such abuses are tied in perception to the IU famed abuses in Africa.
That being said I think we are underestimating the viability of the Portuguese Empire here. They have already invested many timed more settlers from Portugal itself, and are now expanding to Brazil. As for native 'uplift' the whole reason they have partnered with the CC to such an extent was to actually get funding for those projects ITTL. So even if it likely falls short of propaganda I think they actually are making progress here; which makes the abuses even more tragic; because as stated IU for all its faults Portugal's regime will be far better than what is coming in the Minority Rule Republics.
Finally with France retaining Gabon, Italy securing Libya, and Britain's many Oversea Territories; the idea of a reformed Portuguese Federation or whatever would have tons of more credibility here as opposed to OTL. So if we have a Church leadership trying to reform, Nova Estado gone, and a very large white population that's unlikely to leave quietly, I could see there being native groups that decide its better to take part in building a reformed nation than seeking independence.
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Bookmark1995
Banned
In any case, the dream of a multiracial Southern Africa would be a long time coming and the process far from smooth.
The AfroFascists may actually help a bit there. For the near and medium term they will get lots of points for opposing the Euro Fascists, but if Zaire is any example they offer little more than revenge and dubious pride. Just as Katangas' prosperity won't sway a lot of people being based on collaboration; so too, do I expect many will see Zaire's pride and dedication to liberation coming at the cost of prosperity and personal liberty as too high.
So for the colonies, Africans fearing the rise of AfroFascist tyrants may decide to put their support behind a reform movement rather than independence. Of course Zaire or other AfroFascist nations may get their act together and produce better results for their people.
For the East African Federation, how is the racial situation there?
It's about OTL modern South Africa. It's a democracy, you've got a few crazies and a bit of graft but the state basically functions.
Cú_Chulainn
Banned
Since Italy plans to somehow turn AOI into majority White I assume the fascist pro-natalist campaign "battle for births" is still up and running in Italy and is probably being mimicked in Spain and, as can be seen in Angola and Mozambique, Portugal. With this in mind, I wonder what effect this will have on Italy's demographics, assuming immigration to America has largely ceased. By the time fascism falls in the 80s or 90s Italy could have a higher population than France and Britain, and if birth rates stay much higher than northern Europe maybe even Germany. Italy will certainly be a power to behold in Europe even after the fall of fascism, unless things go horribly wrong in Ethiopia (nukes), which could never be made majority Italian unless drastic measures are taken.
Any surviving Rhodeisa is worst case. Mugabe is shitty, but people tend to take the Rhodies propaganda at face value too much on how white rule was like. Rhodesia was arguably the most evil result of British colonialism, with minority rule, essentially apartheid on a mass scale, summary execution and frequent beatings of black intellectuals, pretty much made life as a Zimbabwean as miserable as possible, and don't forget the creme of the shitty crop, chemical warfare against its own population. Frequently white Rhodesian infantry would brag about shooting "floppies" (their version of the N word in America, or the South African K word.) The sense of white entitlement in Rhodesia was very high. In response to the Air Flight 825 downing (which was a war crime, no doubt, yes, even nkomos forces could be pretty shit) whites armed and formed vigilante groups, where they would shoot up the first blacks they saw.
Additionally, in operation Gatling, Rhodesia's retaliation, they happen to have killed a shocking amount of Black civilians, including a good 351 children in the refugee freedom camp. Yeah, Rhodie apologist is bullshit, and I will explain why even further.
Essentially the only argument Rhodies can point out is - muh higher living standards and economic prosperity! Caribbean states such as Haiti, Jamiacia, those built on slavery, had impressive, rich capitals, essentially gaining their economic prosperity from the evil business of slavery. Should we defend French Haiti because it had a prosperous economy? Hell no.
See this annoyed me because it came off as soft Rhodie apologism. My zimbabwean friend are no fan of Mugabe, after all, many had to leave the country because of him - some had their ethnic group, the Shona, targeted by him (see Gukurahundi) . Yet they prefer him considerably to white rule, when they were quarentined in villages, and even those lucky enough to be a servant for a white family in Salisbury had to keep their head down - as the Rhodies wanted to keep the "floppies in their place."
And because people doubt me over the chemical weapons claim, here are some sources
Rhodesia and weapons of mass destruction - Wikipedia
Dirty War: Rhodesia and Chemical Biological Warfare 1975-1980 (Book Review)
Glenn Cross’s Dirty War: Rhodesia and Chemical Biological Warfare 1975–1980 is a welcome addition to the small, but growing scholarly literature on the history of chemical and biological warfare. In
cco.ndu.edu
Long Ignored: The Use of Chemical and Biological Weapons Against Insurgents - War on the Rocks
A conventional shibboleth is that chemical and biological agents have no place in modern conflicts. In this view, chemical and biological agents are not
warontherocks.com
Trust me, Rhodesia staying alive is NOT an improvement in any way. They weren't Hitlerian in scale, but they were a fundamentally evil state - much like the Confederacy, Apartheid South Africa, and Estado Novo Portugal.
I don't like Mugabe by any means, but none of my Zimbabwean friends think that being considered and treated as subhumans by the Rhodesian Front regime is even remotely better.
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Bookmark1995
Banned
Any serving Rhodeisa is worst case. Mugabe is shitty, but people tend to take the Rhodies propaganda at face value too much on how white rule was like. Rhodesia was arguably the most evil result of British colonialism, with minority rule, essentially apartheid on a mass scale, summary execution and frequent beatings of black intellectuals, pretty much made life as a Zimbabwean as miserable as possible, and don't forget the creme of the shitty crop, chemical warfare against its own population. Frequently white Rhodesian infantry would brag about shooting "floppies" (their version of the N word in America, or the South African K word.) The sense of white entitlement in Rhodesia was very high. In response to the Air Flight 825 downing (which was a war crime, no doubt, yes, even nkomos forces could be pretty shit) whites armed and formed vigilante groups, where they would shoot up the first blacks they saw.
Additionally, in operation Gatling, Rhodesia's retaliation, they happen to have killed a shocking amount of Black civilians, including a good 351 children in the refugee freedom camp. Yeah, Rhodie apologist is bullshit, and I will explain why even further.
Essentially the only argument Rhodies can point out is - muh higher living standards and economic prosperity! Caribbean states such as Haiti, Jamiacia, those built on slavery, had impressive, rich capitals, essentially gaining their economic prosperity from the evil business of slavery. Should we defend French Haiti because it had a prosperous economy? Hell no.
See this annoyed me because it cam off as soft Rhodie apologism. My zimbabwean friend are no fan of Mugabe, after all, many had to leave the country because of him - some had their ethnic group, the Shona, targeted by him (see Gukurahundi) . Yet they prefer him considerably to white rule, when they were quarentined in villages, and even those lucky enough to be a servant for a white family in Salisbury had to keep their head down - as the Rhodies wanted to keep the "floppies in their place."
And because people doubt me over the chemical weapons claim, here are some sources
Rhodesia and weapons of mass destruction - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Dirty War: Rhodesia and Chemical Biological Warfare 1975-1980 (Book Review)
Glenn Cross’s Dirty War: Rhodesia and Chemical Biological Warfare 1975–1980 is a welcome addition to the small, but growing scholarly literature on the history of chemical and biological warfare. Incco.ndu.eduLong Ignored: The Use of Chemical and Biological Weapons Against Insurgents - War on the Rocks
A conventional shibboleth is that chemical and biological agents have no place in modern conflicts. In this view, chemical and biological agents are notwarontherocks.com
Trust me, Rhodesia staying alive is NOT an improvement in any way. They weren't Hitlerian in scale, but they were a fundamentally evil state - much like the Confederacy, Apartheid South Africa, and Estado Novo Portugal.
I don't like Mugabe by any means, but none of my Zimbabwean friends think that being considered and treated as subhumans by the Rhodesian Front regime is even remotely better.
I beg you to accept that there is no people on Earth who would not prefer their own bad government to the good government of an alien power.
- Gandhi 1982.
Yes Africa after independence has suffered tremendous struggles. But those struggles are preferable to life under the jackboot of colonialism.
There was a commission in the wake of Versailles whereby american statesmen went about the Levant asking the locals hwat they wanted- aside from Lebanese Christians they overwhelmingly wanted unified Syrian state and no Israeli settlement, but they generally picked the US over the europeans if they had to have a mandatory power, largely because of Wilson being taken at his word and the fact that the US was disinterested and uninvolved in the region and thus seen as more likely to actually treat the local populations with respect.
With the US being more isolationist (meaning limited to the western hemisphere and Pacific) it probably has a much better international reputation. A lot of anticolonial movements (Vietnam, China, the philippines) took cues from the US, at times even quoting the declaration of independence verbatim.
I can't see South African fascims in this timeline looking like the Not!Nazi party of Eugene Terreblanche, but I can see the National Party evolving into something like the Fascist OTL Herstigte National Party - except in this timeline, they are in power, so it is a pretty cold world for black Africans under them.
Something like this, except more paramilitary members. Since they are now fully aligned with the Rome Bloc and Fascism isn't discredited, they do not have to worry like the HNP did OTL of look too "UR Fascistic." They can put on the full blackshirt (well, probably a different color shirt for their paramilitary - blue shirts?)
Actually that does bring up a relevant topic - what are the other Rome Bloc nations blackshirt equivalent?
Something like this, except more paramilitary members. Since they are now fully aligned with the Rome Bloc and Fascism isn't discredited, they do not have to worry like the HNP did OTL of look too "UR Fascistic." They can put on the full blackshirt (well, probably a different color shirt for their paramilitary - blue shirts?)
Actually that does bring up a relevant topic - what are the other Rome Bloc nations blackshirt equivalent?
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...yeah, pretty much.
The Rhodies...
As a British person, it's like staring into a twisted, warped mirror image, seeing everything your country stands for being trampled even as they claim their championing it - it'd probably be worse in this TL. I can actually see media like Hetalia having Rhodesia and South Africa as Britain's evil counterparts. I'm not gonna lie, I'm proud of most of the British Empire - for better or worse, it was the time when our little islands managed to rule the waves and most of the world, and I'm proud of it the same way Americans are proud of their global hegemony/unofficial empire.
But Rhodesia? South Africa? Yeah, we fucked up there. Do I have respect for Rhodes as a man? Kinda - he was kind of a ridiculous larger-than-life supervillain character who frequently got depressed at the thought of being unable to annex the stars.
But the country/regime using his name? Fuck 'em.
Especially if they get up to that kinda shit. Jesus.
Y'know, and fair warning, this is a tangent, I once saw a post saying there was three kinds of colonialism: the kind of radical demographic shift, ethnic cleansing and rush of immigration that created Canada, America, Australia and New Zealand - while the actual process of building it is bloody and repugnant, the end result tends to be a sane, functioning country. Then there's the protectorate arrangements exemplified by America's hegemony over, well, the Americas, or the old client-kingdom deals of Rome - basic great power shenanigans, just a fact of life. Then there's the ruling-class arrangements. These are not sustainable, and always end in blood.
So, if you're colonising, either go for broke and try to forget it after the fact while marvelling at your shiny new country, or just make deals and protectorates without getting nutty about ethnicity. Never try a foreign ruling class, it will not work.
*retreats to mutter bitterly about bloody papists, communists, boers and rhodies*
The Rhodies...
As a British person, it's like staring into a twisted, warped mirror image, seeing everything your country stands for being trampled even as they claim their championing it - it'd probably be worse in this TL. I can actually see media like Hetalia having Rhodesia and South Africa as Britain's evil counterparts. I'm not gonna lie, I'm proud of most of the British Empire - for better or worse, it was the time when our little islands managed to rule the waves and most of the world, and I'm proud of it the same way Americans are proud of their global hegemony/unofficial empire.
But Rhodesia? South Africa? Yeah, we fucked up there. Do I have respect for Rhodes as a man? Kinda - he was kind of a ridiculous larger-than-life supervillain character who frequently got depressed at the thought of being unable to annex the stars.
But the country/regime using his name? Fuck 'em.
Especially if they get up to that kinda shit. Jesus.
Y'know, and fair warning, this is a tangent, I once saw a post saying there was three kinds of colonialism: the kind of radical demographic shift, ethnic cleansing and rush of immigration that created Canada, America, Australia and New Zealand - while the actual process of building it is bloody and repugnant, the end result tends to be a sane, functioning country. Then there's the protectorate arrangements exemplified by America's hegemony over, well, the Americas, or the old client-kingdom deals of Rome - basic great power shenanigans, just a fact of life. Then there's the ruling-class arrangements. These are not sustainable, and always end in blood.
So, if you're colonising, either go for broke and try to forget it after the fact while marvelling at your shiny new country, or just make deals and protectorates without getting nutty about ethnicity. Never try a foreign ruling class, it will not work.
*retreats to mutter bitterly about bloody papists, communists, boers and rhodies*