The Footprint of Mussolini - TL

Are Spain and Portugal going to join the Italian bloc ITTL? Portugal was committed to neutrality in WW2 and maintaining the friendly relations of the Anglo-Portuguese alliance, so it may still choose to become a founding member of pro-western institutions like NATO.

Spain, on the other hand, was quite a pariah OTL, Franco seems more likely than Salazar to join Rome's alliance system.
 
Are Spain and Portugal going to join the Italian bloc ITTL? Portugal was committed to neutrality in WW2 and maintaining the friendly relations of the Anglo-Portuguese alliance, so it may still choose to become a founding member of pro-western institutions like NATO.

Spain, on the other hand, was quite a pariah OTL, Franco seems more likely than Salazar to join Rome's alliance system.

They already have. They joined precisely because they wanted to be neutral, but Hitler ruined everything and now they’ve joined a war they didn’t want.
 
Libya is a part of Italy. It just has a lot of Jewish refugees for now.

Let’s just say that some Italians noticed the disappearance of Atomic science in American science journals.



No different from OTL. Exists to keep the elite happy but has no real power.
If I am right, Lybia still has the strip of Aouzou, which has some Uranium. In an Italian Lybia Nuclear Power can be really useful for desalinification, releasing more oil for export
 
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No different from OTL. Exists to keep the elite happy but has no real power.

It's complicated, Benny never had the type of power Hitler, Franco or Stalin enjoied and he know that if he really wanted the King can send him home quickly as the army (and the navy) was extremely loyal to the monarchy; even more complicated for the rest of the regime, except Balbo and in a minor note Ciano, no other fascist leader had a lot of carisma and legitimancy except what Mussolini desire give him and so once he die (being a war leader is extremely stressfull) whatever get the new job will need to get the King support
 
It's complicated, Benny never had the type of power Hitler, Franco or Stalin enjoied and he know that if he really wanted the King can send him home quickly as the army (and the navy) was extremely loyal to the monarchy; even more complicated for the rest of the regime, except Balbo and in a minor note Ciano, no other fascist leader had a lot of carisma and legitimancy except what Mussolini desire give him and so once he die (being a war leader is extremely stressfull) whatever get the new job will need to get the King support
Yes, the king was in power, but refused to use it. As we have seen OTL in 1943, the possibility to overthrow Mussolini was always there, it needed some determination.
Another question: I calculated that at the moment there are 500000 Jews in Lybia, which compared to preexistant Lybian and Italian population is nearly half of the total. Really a Libanesque situation squared here.
 
Yes, the king was in power, but refused to use it. As we have seen OTL in 1943, the possibility to overthrow Mussolini was always there, it needed some determination.
Another question: I calculated that at the moment there are 500000 Jews in Lybia, which compared to preexistant Lybian and Italian population is nearly half of the total. Really a Libanesque situation squared here.

And with thousands of Slovenians moving there as well, the coast would become even earlier than envisioned majority European populated. Naturally, the control of the Muslim tribes of the interior will remain decisive for whatever post war development in Libya.

Returning to Ethiopia: Eritrea would have the best chances to stay Italian territory because it was its oldest colony, and forms of integration were sort of implemented by decades - and Asmara was a blooming city of 100,000 souls which half being Italian. However I can't tell if would keep Dancalia or not as well.

Somalia is more in the vague. While could have a certain strategic value for its position (just thinking of an Italian-Roman Alliance space rocket center later), if the Muslim populations will become radicalized, it would be untenable to keep the territory out of Modagiscio and some coastal positions in the long term. Plus Somalia may not be so appealing like Libya or Eritrea.

Now, about Ethiopia. De facto the country was dismembered in four regions within the AOI.

But at the same, the Empire wasn't de jure dismantled - the King was after all Emperor of Ethiopia and in certain AOI maps the term Ethiopia stood after all. Sure, it was still an usurpation, but looking to the Ethiopian history not so uncommon. Therefore, it couldn't be impossible that the only potential opposition at least in the postwar generation - the ras and the Ethiopian Coptic Church - may go with the flow to accept the status quo and Italian subjugation and a foreign Emperor as long to get some benefits. And I think while Italianization policies would be implemented, the Italian goverment - through the government of the Duke of Aosta - would have favoured a good savage approach. Addis Abeba too had in few years a relevant Italian community (over 40,000, albeit I didn't find demographic dates of the city overall in the 1940) and the reconstruction plan was in full swing and surely completed TTL.

The fact Italian colonization focused excessively over major cities rather than balanced countryside spread shouldn't surprise from the moment Italians by history are an urban population so with a different colonial habit than French or British.
 
But at the same, the Empire wasn't de jure dismantled - the King was after all Emperor of Ethiopia and in certain AOI maps the term Ethiopia stood after all. Sure, it was still an usurpation, but looking to the Ethiopian history not so uncommon. Therefore, it couldn't be impossible that the only potential opposition at least in the postwar generation - the ras and the Ethiopian Coptic Church - may go with the flow to accept the status quo and Italian subjugation and a foreign Emperor as long to get some benefits. And I think while Italianization policies would be implemented, the Italian goverment - through the government of the Duke of Aosta - would have favoured a good savage approach. Addis Abeba too had in few years a relevant Italian community (over 40,000, albeit I didn't find demographic dates of the city overall in the 1940) and the reconstruction plan was in full swing and surely completed TTL.

The fact Italian colonization focused excessively over major cities rather than balanced countryside spread shouldn't surprise from the moment Italians by history are an urban population so with a different colonial habit than French or British.
Are you trying to use Ethiopian history to justify the Italians' colonization ITTL? Considering the Ethiopian Orthodox Church refused to support Italy's presence for the most part which wasn't helped by the Italians' slaughtering of Orthodox priests and support of Muslims over the Church, I doubt they'll ever accept the Italians.

Is this why the Italians never managed to control any significant portion of the Ethiopian countryside during the Italian Occupation IOTL?
 
Are you trying to use Ethiopian history to justify the Italians' colonization ITTL? Considering the Ethiopian Orthodox Church refused to support Italy's presence for the most part which wasn't helped by the Italians' slaughtering of Orthodox priests and support of Muslims over the Church, I doubt they'll ever accept the Italians.

Is this why the Italians never managed to control any significant portion of the Ethiopian countryside during the Italian Occupation IOTL?

About the latter question, essentially is a yes. The government however planned an agricultural colonization, but in part for the war, in part because arable land in East Africa was really scarce, essentially it flopped. Libya was much more appealing.

About the former: is possible, but I can't be totally sure because I know only by certain sides the history of the AOI, but having still a generally positive opinion of the character of Amedeo d'Aosta, that in the long term his government could have adopted a more cooperative and distensive terms with the Ethiopian elites. Probably would have even started to create Ethiopian divisions on the model of the more loyal Eritrean Ascari.

I know of the massacres during the war and after the attempt of assassination on Graziani, but after that event, the situation stabilized. Ras started to go to pilgrimage on Rome to Mussolini, so is not the nobility was horribly hostile to the occupation. About the Ethiopic Orthodox Church, I can't really tell.
 
About the former: is possible, but I can't be totally sure because I know only by certain sides the history of the AOI, but having still a generally positive opinion of the character of Amedeo d'Aosta, that in the long term his government could have adopted a more cooperative and distensive terms with the Ethiopian elites. Probably would have even started to create Ethiopian divisions on the model of the more loyal Eritrean Ascari.

I know of the massacres during the war and after the attempt of assassination on Graziani, but after that event, the situation stabilized. Ras started to go to pilgrimage on Rome to Mussolini, so is not the nobility was horribly hostile to the occupation. About the Ethiopic Orthodox Church, I can't really tell.
Considering that the situation after Graziani's replacement remained the same in the Ethiopian countryside, I doubt the Italians can make significant inroads within the aftermath of Yekatit 12 outside the urban centers that they controlled. However, if we avoid having Graziani become the Viceroy of AOI and see Amedeo's "liberal" faction take power, you could have an Italian colonial administration that embraces an indirect rule means of controlling Ethiopia and utilize a carrot-and-stick approach to foster favor amongst the Ethiopian population.

The situation did not at all stabilize, with the exception of a few more figures from the nobility that remained in Ethiopia and Ethiopian Patriots submitting to the Italians - in fact, not much changed in where it actually mattered, in the Patriot-controlled territories where the Amedeo's policies were quite similar to Graziani's. As for the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, nothing really changed either but you did have a few Orthodox priests preaching the liturgy of the Roman Catholic Church which resulted in quite a few beatings at the hands of Ethiopian Patriots who caught them.
 
Intermission - Philipp of Hesse
New side update, as usual approved and revised by Sorairo:

Philipp of Hesse-Nassau - by Giorgio Bianchi


“… As diplomatic relations between Germany and Italy progressively deteriorated in 1943, the position of Philipp of Hesse-Nassau, governor of said province, and his wife Mafalda of Savoia, started to become untenable in the eyes of the Nazi government. Philipp was the inspiration for Prince Philip’s name and was a great-grandson of Queen Victoria of England. Despite being a supporter of Nazism since 1930, and acting as agent in the Italian court and as a direct intermediate between Hitler and Mussolini, even enlisting for the SS early on, he started to be suspected by the same Fuhrer of being a double agent for Italy, ‘corrupted’ by his wife. It didn’t help him the fact of being the nephew of Wilhelm II, something that Hitler really despised: he was aware that his rise to the chancellorship was allowed by Hindenburg, who was a supporter of the monarchic restoration, Despite actions to prevent this possibility, the Fuhrer was still suspicious of the German nobility.

Things for the German nobles started to become direr in 1943, when a decree limited their actions in the administration and the military, in an obvious attempt to keep them ostracized or worse prevent their staging a coup. Despite Wilhelm II having died in 1941, the Hohenzollern were still here, the son of Kaiser Wilhelm taking the leadership of the family. As his relationship with Hitler became very cold, still he decided to keep his distance from the murmurs of dissent towards the Fuhrer, some starting to look at him as a possible alternative to save Germany from what was starting to become a disaster.

Of course, German spies kept a constant vigilance on Wilhelm. But Hitler started to grow more obsessed towards Philip of Hesse. In his mind he started to think, the more he associated Mussolini and Fascism with the international Jewish Conspiracy, that the Duce wanted to install Jew friendly monarchies across Europe, including Germany. After all, didn’t the Tsar of Bulgaria married a Savoia? Or the King of Italy trying to put nephews on the vacant thrones of Hungary and above all Spain, and apparently Franco weighed the option too, or so he heard? Worse, Mussolini being agreeable to allowing Otto of Hapsburg to become King of Hungary, or worse still Emperor of Austria again? And those puny Alpine mountaineers didn’t put a horse of Troy with Philip and Mafalda in Germany?

Philip and Mafalda started to become aware of the growing hostility of Hitler towards them, between invitations to official ceremonies sudden stopping, increased limitation of their roles and movements, and so on. In the spring of 1943, fearing for their life and their children’s, the couple started to discuss their flight to Italy, in a way to not cause scandal or suspicion. Luckily for Mafalda, the occasion for her and their children to flee Germany happened in the late summer, when she accepted an invitation from her sister Giovanna of Bulgaria to visit her. It happened that Boris III was recovering from an illness (which many, especially post war, believed to be an attempt of assassination from German agents in order to favour a change of government sufficient for Bulgaria to join sides with the Reich) and the Queen gladly accepted the assistance of Mafalda, who brought her child to visit their cousins and spend a warm summer in Bulgaria.

Philipp and Mafalda planned that she would move in late September to Italy from Bulgaria to visit her parents and spend the rest of the year there, with Philip joining them for the Christmas celebrations and eventually return in Germany at the start of 1944. But in truth both were determined to remain in Italy, Philip would have resigned from his roles and practically live in exile on the peninsula, out of Hitler’s reach.

But while Mafalda and her children soon reached Rome and Vittorio Emanuele III in private pressed Mussolini to resist Hitler in case the German would summon his daughter and son-in-law to return to Germany, things in that cold Fall of 1943 caused the whole plan to fail. When Germany declared war on Italy, Philipp tried to escape and reach Switzerland, only to be caught and arrested almost immediately. Labelled as a traitor by Nazi propaganda, he was sent in the camp of Flossenburg. In the time he was prisoner, he wrote a diary in the hope to be reached by Mafalda and their sons, and later published by them. Philip wrote of his conditions, of the abuses done by his guards, of the hope to see his family soon or later.

Unfortunately for him, at the start of January the enraged Hitler – due to the defeat of Trieste and the failure of Operation Visigoth - ordered his death. Brought in Berlin to face a kangaroo trial, he was condemned to death for treason and being a member of the international Jew conspiracy. Witnesses stated he faced the trial with courage and determination, probably resigned to his fate, replying without fear or anger towards his persecutors. He died on the morning of 23th January 1944. His body was burned and the ashes dispersed. When news of his death reached Italy, messages of sympathy arrived all across the Kingdom in direction of the widow and House Savoia. King George VI in England expressed her own condolences as well the various royal houses in exile in England. Mussolini remembered Philipp as a good person and a new martyr of the folly of Hitler; soon after returning from the Lisbon Conference, he joined the funeral ceremony organized in the Lateran in his honour. Pius XII would attend the mass in person.

While Italy swore vengeance, German propaganda celebrated the death of a traitor. But behind the curtain, the German nobility was outraged and fearful towards Hitler. They couldn’t, nor wouldn’t, forget.”
 
Will we see an independent kingdom or grand duchy of Hesse in this timeline? With the USA seen as less than reliable and with the fascist bloc as semi-reliable sort-of-allies, the democratic powers of Europe would probably consider a partially balkanized Germany a boon. With Poland and East Prussia almost certainly overrun by soviets, a Prussian nation which has been relieved of most of their post-Napoleonic possessions in the western parts of Germany, but still has a degree of military strength (although probably only limited to ground forces for safety's sake) would be appealing and would make sense as an expendable bulwark against the soviets, while the other German kingdoms and principalities once released could be largely demilitarized sort-of-puppets for the various victorious European powers.
 
Will we see an independent kingdom or grand duchy of Hesse in this timeline? With the USA seen as less than reliable and with the fascist bloc as semi-reliable sort-of-allies, the democratic powers of Europe would probably consider a partially balkanized Germany a boon. With Poland and East Prussia almost certainly overrun by soviets, a Prussian nation which has been relieved of most of their post-Napoleonic possessions in the western parts of Germany, but still has a degree of military strength (although probably only limited to ground forces for safety's sake) would be appealing and would make sense as an expendable bulwark against the soviets, while the other German kingdoms and principalities once released could be largely demilitarized sort-of-puppets for the various victorious European powers.

The next update will begin to show how different Europe will look ITTL. It’ll be up in a day or two.
 

sodan

Donor
with Italian Libya the story of the rest of the decolonization will be different.
indeed for Algeria most weapons went through Libya to arrive at the FLN.
and if in France the government is more conservative its destiny is not assured
 
Considering that the situation after Graziani's replacement remained the same in the Ethiopian countryside, I doubt the Italians can make significant inroads within the aftermath of Yekatit 12 outside the urban centers that they controlled. However, if we avoid having Graziani become the Viceroy of AOI and see Amedeo's "liberal" faction take power, you could have an Italian colonial administration that embraces an indirect rule means of controlling Ethiopia and utilize a carrot-and-stick approach to foster favor amongst the Ethiopian population.

Amedeo was sent there to use a more 'humane' approach to pacify the situation and greatly limited the military side of the equation, if he fail they will sent back Graziani or someone like him or even worse and the armed repression will start again at full speed and as i said, without some serious back up from other nations (that happen in OTL, but i doubt that here French and British will be very eager to help the Ethiopians insurgent) it's only a matter of time before they are beaten...at least for the moment and for this generation.
 
Amedeo was sent there to use a more 'humane' approach to pacify the situation and greatly limited the military side of the equation, if he fail they will sent back Graziani or someone like him or even worse and the armed repression will start again at full speed and as i said, without some serious back up from other nations (that happen in OTL, but i doubt that here French and British will be very eager to help the Ethiopians insurgent) it's only a matter of time before they are beaten...at least for the moment and for this generation.
At the very least, it'll cost the Italians quite a bit of blood and material - perhaps enough to convince them that holding onto Ethiopia isn't worth it.
 
At the very least, it'll cost the Italians quite a bit of blood and material - perhaps enough to convince them that holding onto Ethiopia isn't worth it.

Not in the immediate and not after the war and not with the current fascist leaderships, maybe in the 70's with the next generation of insurgent
 
Amedeo was sent there to use a more 'humane' approach to pacify the situation and greatly limited the military side of the equation, if he fail they will sent back Graziani or someone like him or even worse and the armed repression will start again at full speed and as i said, without some serious back up from other nations (that happen in OTL, but i doubt that here French and British will be very eager to help the Ethiopians insurgent) it's only a matter of time before they are beaten...at least for the moment and for this generation.

I wouldn't be so sure the insurgents can't get backup. The soviets did manage to influence and supply several states across the world; Ethiopia is not that far inland and once India comes apart, and I do not see many reasons for there being no partition in this timeline, either Hindu india or Pakistan would likely align with the communists to some degree, thus allowing the soviets to send some supplies out via the south. The USA did also at least publicly treat declolonialisation as a major foreign policy goal, I can see the CIA (or whatever the OSS becomes after the war) meddling with Italy's more outlying possessions to some degree.
 
Ultimately Ethiopia is a lost cause, and one wonders why they were so attracted to it since 1896 in the first place.
 
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