So, you’re saying that both sides will accept something resembling the OTL 1948 partition plan?
The Footprint of Mussolini - TL
So, you’re saying that both sides will accept something resembling the OTL 1948 partition plan?
marathag
Banned
There are huge butterflies going on.
1st, and most important, the British won't be turning a blind eye to what today would be called 'foreign fighters' coming in from nearby Arab states.
2nd, it's likely Jewish Battalions under nominal British control will be in the area for Security.
That means there will be little need for Irgun and the Stern Gang to operate so OTLs 1944-47 Civil War is nothing like OTL, less terrorism on all sides.
Things happened as they did OTL as you had the British mostly wanting to leave asap, with a slight thumb on the scale for the Arabs, and continued blocking of Jewish immigration to Palestine from 1939, after the '38 Arab uprising, that resulted in Irgun and esp. Stern Gang attacks on British Forces as well as retaliation agains Arab attacks.
This TL, the British and the Jews are far closer in alignment, so the Arab Nationalists won't have that window of opportunity for a military solution to even have a chance of working
1. I think as OTL, as it happened TTL about that article about the Slovenians of Lubiana and the interview to Balbo, there would be when the war end slow but progressive attention to such minorities would be reviewed as well. Sadly, for the thousand of Rom or Jehova witnesses or homosexuals who paid as well, six million of Jews would always take the bigger space.
About 2: add "Arab world" as well.
marathag
Banned
Again, maybe not.
King Abdullah was willing to deal with Ben-Gurian in '47-48
OTL, the Egyptians, Syrian and Iraqis wanted to screw over the Jordanian Kingdom as much as driving the Jews into the Sea, to the point they would rather have an Israel rather than a Jordan with more Palestinian territory.
I see the Hashemites doing well in the TL.
marathag
Banned
Why would there be missiles? There is no guarantee of a Saddam doing anything in this TL, even his birth might be butterflied away
In one of the previous posts an Israelian being reviewed said explicitely of "missiles coming from Mesopotamia". Therefore at a certain point in the future Iraq is definitely hostile to Israel.
In this scenario the British are not that spent that they washing their hands of the zone and the Jews will have the support of Italy, not only for what happened at Trieste but also because they are natural allies against any arab nationalistic movement so launching a military assault in this situation will not be very prudent
This is what I am thinking by days - the Arabs will grow even more obsessed and eventually fearful of an encirclement threat by the fascist block and their other not-Arab Muslim friends. Italian Libya to the West; the AOI to the South; Turkey to the North; Shia Persia to the East; Israel in the middle. And the Anglo-French still at Suez.
The US influence TTL may be more interesting - in the sense all the Arab countries may end to look more towards Washington unless to become red. Washington could get the OTL benefits without receiving the OTL malus against them in the region as well.
It's interesting to note that before the six days war, the USA were considered very well in the general arab world or at least in the more western leaning, as more than a neutral party, expecially with them forcing the Anglo-French to back down during the Suez crisis of 56; here it's very probable that will happen what you say, the arab goverment will try to ally with Washington as a counterpoint of the Euro-Israelian alliance, expecially with the Euro-American relations not strong as OTL, plus a sense of being under siege can foster a more united arab front.
Is not impossible. Nasser could take even more than a peg down TTL but may be able to forge a more successful union with Syria.
On the bright side South Americ is going to be in a better position than OTL: if the US is against both the Fascist and the Soviet block,it is probably going to support democratic governments rather than military dictators like OTL
Also if the war ends in 1944, there are some chances for a peaceful and united India
Also if the war ends in 1944, there are some chances for a peaceful and united India
The Day That Shook The World
The Day That Shook the World
Interview of Anthony Eden for the BBC’s ‘World At War’ (1973)
Interviewer: “What was the Kiev Conference like?”
Eden: (*Laughs*) “It was a fiercer battle than when the Soviets fought against the Nazis when they liberated it a few months before. Of course, we knew that coming in. Our intention was the absolute minimization of the Soviet occupations following the War, and indeed Fascist.”
Interviewer: “Did you really attempt to restrain Fascist occupation?”
Eden: “I feel we did quite well, all things considered.”
Four’s Company: The Great Power Relations in World War Two, by Steven Benford
On the morning of April 15th 1944, Mussolini, Churchill, FDR and Stalin stood in front of the photographers, in that order. By this point, Mussolini and Stalin had still not said a word to each other, despite the Italian having already been in Kiev for two days. In fairness, nowadays, Churchill was speaking more to Mussolini than to FDR. FDR, by contrast, had been speaking more and more to Stalin, who was growing more and more angry with the course of the war. Roosevelt was infuriated that he was trying to keep Stalin happy (who, after all, had contributed the most by far to the war effort) while Churchill had been raising Hell by encroaching on the Soviet sphere of influence in conjunction with the ‘Mediteranean Peacock’. FDR rarely even referred to Mussolini by name at this point, calling him ‘the Peacock’ whenever he could. It is hard to believe that this wasn’t the nadir of Euro-American relations, even during the War, but this was bad nonetheless.
The conference started as fiery and brutal as feared. Stalin refused to start the meeting without Mussolini saying he would pull out of Bessarabia. Mussolini responded that Italy had no troops in the region and that if he wanted to, he could invite Tsar Boris or King Michael. Stalin angrily replied that Boris was Mussolini’s puppet. The Italian said that there were no puppets in the Fascist Bloc, as the entire point of the Bloc was to retain the national integrity of the member states. An argument ensued over the Fascist Bloc’s subjugation of Slovenia, Serbia and Greece, compared to the subjugation of the Baltic States. Churchill stayed quiet while FDR desperately tried to keep order. This was how the first three hours of the Conference proceeded.
After a short lunch, the four met again. Churchill began by commending the two dictators for ‘clearing the air’ and stated that they now knew the main points of contention, namely Hungary and Romania. As it was clear the Fascist Bloc and the Soviets did not want to share a border, a solution had to be found, especially in respect to Dobruja, which quickly became the unsquarable peg of the Conference. In addition, Finland had become an issue to deal with. This wasn’t to mention the Post-War division of Germany, the fates of German War Criminals, the Pacific War, and a host of other issues great and small.
“When it became clear that the situation we faced may have been overwhelming,” remembered Churchill, “the news came in that made the situation far beyond what the term ‘overwhelming’ could encompass.” That was when the news came in that something serious had happened in Berlin.
“We Weren’t All Like Him”: The German Resistance, by Peter Kahn
On April 15th, Stauffenberg had made his move. He had loaded his briefcase with timed explosives and had primed them before his descent into the Bunker. The Bunker had recently been transformed into Hitler’s living quarters day and night owing to the collapse on every front following the idiotic invasion of Italy. The Wolf’s Lair had been abandoned to the Soviets, who were already moving into Poland, with Warsaw not too far away. Stauffenberg planned to visit the meeting that afternoon with the German High Command – the plotters were absent from the meeting, meaning Rommel, Rundstedt, Manstein etc. However, many notables of the Nazi regime were not present for various reasons, including Goebbels, Himmler and so on.
The meeting began at 13:00 as planned according to those who left the Bunker following the explosion. The topics discussed were about how to maintain the front. Hitler was insisting more troops be moved to fight the Jews, which his generals pleaded to reconsider. The last confirmed words Adolf Hitler were reported by Traudl Junge before she was called away on other business: “I would rather have a world with no Germans and no Jews than one with a hundred million Germans and a single Hebrew”.
At 13:20, an explosion shook the bunker ... the only problem was that the bomb was supposed to detonated at 13:30. Faulty wiring in one of the two bombs had ensured that both went off when the first did. Stauffenberg was supposed to leave the Bunker, confirm the blast and start Operation Valkyrie. Unfortunately, Stauffenberg would never live to know his achievement. He died in the Bunker, having just left the meeting room itself based on the location of his corpse.
Many notable people died in the bunker. Among them were Admiral Karl Doenitz, General Alfred Jodl, Field Marshall Wilhelm Keitel, Luftwaffe leader Hermann Goering and, of course, Adolf Hitler.
Interview of Erwin Rommel for the BBC’s ‘World At War’ (1973)
Interviewer: “Where were you on April 15th 1944?”
Rommel: “At my Command Post, in France. I’d been moved around several times. I didn’t want to serve in the Russian Front a second longer than I had to, given what the Einsatzruppen were doing. I wanted to go back to fight the Americans and British in France. It probably saved my life – I’d already sent my family to Sweden.”
Interviewer: “When did you first suspect that something had gone wrong with the operation?”
Rommel: “I was supposed to receive a phone call from my comrades telling me about how the operation had began. At that point, the army would seize the key points of the cities and take control. Then I would come in and convince the German people that the SS had been behind it, say I was interim Fuhrer, clean up the remaining Nazis and give a conditional surrender to the West – we’d clean up the Russian situation first and then get a good deal there. The whole point was that we’d catch the Nazi regime before they could act. So it was quite a surprise when my second-in-command came in and told me that the troops were saying there was an assassination attempt on the Fuhrer in Berlin.”
Interviewer: “What was your reaction?”
Rommel: “That we were all dead.”
The Second World War – Christopher Armlong
Heinz Guderian had been critical of Hitler. He considered him an idiot and worse, especially after the Italy campaign began. But at the same time, he was loyal. More loyal than any form of reason could conceive. More importantly, he was stationed just outside Berlin, along with his Panzer divisions. These would crush the dreams of the Valkyrie Conspirators for an easy end to the war.
The death of Stauffenberg during the operation had left everyone in the dark. Crazed calls, one after another flew out of Berlin in all directions to everyone. No one was sure who was in charge, as all three of the German military branches had lost their leadership, not to mention Hitler, though no one knew for sure he was dead yet. Most importantly, in the absence of Stauffenberg’s call before the storm, the other players managed to make their moves before the conspirators.
Guderian received a call from Himmler, whose SS network had created what almost amounted to a state within a state. Himmler had received word of what happened long before Rommel would, though he did not quite understand what had happened. Himmler had gambled by telling Guderian that Hitler was incapacitated. Guderian had indeed received wild stories coming from all sides around Berlin of Hitler having been attacked. When asked what to do, Himmler demanded Guderian stop anarchy from descending on Berlin until everyone knew what was going on by flattening any attempt anyone, including German soldiers, attempting to take over. Having seen the anarchy for himself, he finally took action and ordered his troops to march on Berlin.
Soon after, the Valkyrie conspirators finally pieced together what had happened and realised Stauffenberg had been killed though the bomb had indeed gone off, and far sooner than expected. Valkyrie was put into effect, though Rommel would not be informed of what was going on in the confusion. The revamped Valkyrie that the conspirators had created explicitly dealt with the SS being the ones who had killed Hitler. Indeed, they would certainly find an SS prepared for a fight, though not because they had tried to kill Hitler, but because Himmler had already alerted the SS to seize the crucial functions of state. All throughout Germany, the SS and Reserve Army clashed, both convinced the others had attempted a coup.
However, where it counted most in Berlin, Guderian’s arrival had already squashed any attempt by the Valkyrie plotters to seize the city. And that wasn’t all for the plotters. Once the news had begun to be confirmed among senior members of government that Hitler was dead, the shock quickly made way to desperation, as no one knew who was in charge, who had power, who was fighting who, who killed Hitler, why, or what was going to happen next. The only person in the madness who kept a calm, calculating posture was Heinrich Himmler, who was able to deduce that members the Army had done the deed, based on the fact they would have had access to the Bunker. Himmler contacted Goebbels, who was still devastated but soon fired up with the urge to avenge Hitler, and put him in front of a radio to explain the situation. That evening, Goebbels announced that Adolf Hitler had been killed by senior figures of the army, and that the SS would be entrusted to occupy the main cities of Germany. The new Fuhrer of Germany would be Heinrich Himmler, as he was the only one left in the Nazi Government with the manpower and respect to back it up. The problem was that Valkyrie had assumed that the SS had been the ones attempting the coup, and most of the commanders executing the operation believed that Goebbels and Himmler were just parts of the plot. Furthering the complication, the conspirators had actually managed to successfully take over multiple cities, most notably Hamburg, in no small part due to the historic Leftism of the city which led the population to actively assist the Reserve Army against the SS. The city quickly became the HQ of the plotters. Other cities included Prague and Vienna, had also successfully kicked out the SS. However, these were drops in the bucket compared to the vast scale of Germany.
Rather than ending the War, Operation Valkyrie seemed to have started another one. All throughout the night of April 15th, up and down Germany, the SS fought members of the reserve army with the front line troops baffled and anxious. No one knew who was behind Hitler’s death, but one thing was for sure: the War was going to keep going.
marathag
Banned
A lot of optimism here.
The US won't meddle south of the Border as long as those countries are generally aligned with USA policies, no matter who or how the country is run.
India will still have to deal with Partition. Pakistan and Bangladesh are just not a good fit with India, though there is a chance of less violence, maybe less than OTL, but still will be bloody
OTL events say otherwise, considering i can think of at least four different cases that disprove your argument. Of course i don't want to start a discussion that would end up ruining this thread so let's avoid this topic.
My point is that the US probably won't tollerate any government that is either alligned to Rome or Moscow near its borders,meaning that we could see people like Jacobo Arbenz not being overtrown.
Why? Even in OTL there were muslims and indus opposing the division (including Gandhi) and the POD of this TL is set in.1932, meaning you have 12 years worth of butterflies.
Of course we aren't the ones writing this TL so this conversation is kinda pointless