I wouldn't be so sure the insurgents can't get backup. The soviets did manage to influence and supply several states across the world; Ethiopia is not that far inland and once India comes apart, and I do not see many reasons for there being no partition in this timeline, either Hindu india or Pakistan would likely align with the communists to some degree, thus allowing the soviets to send some supplies out via the south. The USA did also at least publicly treat declolonialisation as a major foreign policy goal, I can see the CIA (or whatever the OSS becomes after the war) meddling with Italy's more outlying possessions to some degree.
Horthy was killed by by the Nazis as well as most of his ministers. The subsequent collaborator government sure as hell isnt getting in, nor are the Reds.
Hungary is a blank canvas with ‘infinite possibilities’.
Why?2. I can already predict that the Palestinian people are... well, they're ****ed. Even worse than in OTL. Far worse.