The Footprint of Mussolini - TL
If it teaches them to not just rely on the stick, but also use the carrot in order to keep subject populations in line they'll be better of for it.
I could see these people become the champions of Fascism in the United States:
- Ezra Pound- A famous American Modernist Artist who admired Italian Fascism and had lived in Fascist Italy
- Lawrence Dennis - An American who advocated for Fascism during the Great Depression
- Seward Collins - An American socialite who was a "self-declared" fascist. He had admired Mussolini, but he also admired Hitler. Although I can see him abandon his pro-German views in favour of Mussolini.
- Amerigo Dumini - An Italian-American Fascist who was born and raised in the US by Italian immigrants. He jad moved to Italy and renounced his US citizenship as well joined the Fascist Party. I can see Mussolini send him back to the United States just to spread Fascism kinda like Fritz Kuhn with the German-American Bund.
- Charles Coughlin and Gerald LK Smith - Both were known for their association with Huey Long and their support for Share-the-wealth program. However after Huey's assassination both went off and became anti-semitic, with Coughlin blaming Jews on his radio broadcast, while Smith would go on and form numerous Far-Right Nationalist Parties as well deny the holocaust. Although I'm thinking they may have a change of heart what with Fascism clashing with Nazism.
- Charles A. Willoughby - A US Army Officer who met Fransesco Franco before the Spanish Civil War where he was persinally toasted by Franco, as well had admired Fascism, Mussolini and Franco.
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Maybe these people could form their own far-right organization as a response to the Civil Rights Movement?
Although Lawrence Dennis could easily be an American Fascist since he was secretly of mixed-race.
The same with Ezra Pound, he was only anti-semitic because well it was a trend he was sorta following. I mean Pound wasn't a true anti-semite. Plus he lived in Fascist Italy from the 1930s until the end of the war. I mean just like, Mosley, Oswald Mosley wasn't really anti-semitic. Pound was more interested in Italian Fascism.
Charles A. Willoughby was never stated to bd Anti-semitic, but he did personally meet and befriend Francesco Franco before he became dictator. As well did develop admiration for Fascism.
Amerigo Dumini as well was never stated to be anti-Semitic. Plus he was a member of the Italian Fascist Party.
Also with people like Seward Collins, Charles Coughlin and Gerald LK Smith, well people can change. So it's plausible they may renounce Anti-semitism all while embracing Fascism.
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I’d really like to see Erza Pound become the ITTL Mosley of America. Perhaps he makes a trip to Italy during the 1940s, before Germany’s invasion of Italy, and sees how loyal Jewish fascists hard a work?
It would be a tough sell for Turkey to give up any territory. Even without a significant Turkish population the expansion seems driven in large part by national ambition and vengeance in Turkey and Greece's feud. This Turkish government may view the current situation as acceptable keeping the Greeks weak and divided against themselves.
Bulgaria after its past losses will not be keen on giving an inch. Though they may be willing to extend minority rights and perhaps some financial aid to the Greek state? Hmm, it would be interesting if Bulgaria becomes seen as the "token good teammate" of the Balkan Fascist states.
I actually don't think Croatia will become an Italian puppet if Brutus goes off smoothly. Mussolini has been through alot to know more limits and so has the Grand Council. Just like the LB needs the democracies to stand against the Soviets, Mussolini needs his fellow fascist dictators to be able to stand equal with the democracies. Mussolini removing Pavelic would be one thing, but turning Croatia into another Austria as it were would I think make the others to wary Mussolini really wants a new Roman Empire with eyes on them.
With Greece a longterm investment in men and resources, the ongoing AOI problems, and other possible commitments opening up, I don't think Mussolini wants to have to dig too deep in Croatia right now. Sure he'll use this to increase influence and set up his Savoy agent with more power, but in the end Croatia is more valuable to him as a willing ally once they get the madmen out of power.
Occupation in Austria will end in the mid 50's so we will have to wait to see how things will develop there. About Croatia, we have also to see how much of the country will remain. Apparently the signs would indicate a white peace - Serbian troops are not properly or deeper into Bosnia so if Zagreb would call for peace, Belgrade may accept it or to better say may be forced.
If Operation Brutus succeeds a white peace seems most likely. Tito defeated an invasion but invading Croatia even the Bosnia region will loose him the 100% support of populace that has aided the Serbians so far. With how nasty this war has been I expect the Croatian populace and anticommunist elements would be out in force against a Serbian invasion.
And finally Serbia is exhausted. The country never recovered from the Third Balkan War and the recent civil war even if brief did not help there. Even with Soviet aid it will take Tito years to rebuild his country and get the refugees out of camps and infrastructure up to snuff. Serbia has fought well for its life, but further war will only damage it even if they gain territory.
It would be one thing if Tito was invading to end the war, but if peace is offered I think he would take it to prepare to fight the next war.
Also Stalin does not want a war now, or he would have already started one. He will pressure Tito to a white peace I expect.
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Operation Brutus will be more for Italy than simply removing an unbearable neighbor like Pavelić.
It will be a precedent for future actions, as well as a warning for everyone who would think about doing their own business inside the Roman Alliance for personal gains. Italy will no longer sustain the idiotic policies of an ally without dire consequences, not short the removal of aforesaid ally.
Between the idea of removing and the actual act there's a wide space. Seeing what Mussolini will do to Pavelić, all other members of the Alliance will learn to tone down their extravangances unless of common accord with other members.
Still, Italy had shown that it alone can't move and drag all other members in it's own adventures, which means that every member of the Roman Alliace had some manouvering space as long this will not upset international balances. All members have somewhat compartimentalized interests or not enough strenght to compete between each other for the same prize.
So, unlike OTL NATO and Warsaw Pact, with the first being a somewhat loose coalition of interest in Europe and everybody for himself in other theatres; and not like the second, were the USSR was the absolute tyrant of it's empire.
It will be a precedent for future actions, as well as a warning for everyone who would think about doing their own business inside the Roman Alliance for personal gains. Italy will no longer sustain the idiotic policies of an ally without dire consequences, not short the removal of aforesaid ally.
Between the idea of removing and the actual act there's a wide space. Seeing what Mussolini will do to Pavelić, all other members of the Alliance will learn to tone down their extravangances unless of common accord with other members.
Still, Italy had shown that it alone can't move and drag all other members in it's own adventures, which means that every member of the Roman Alliace had some manouvering space as long this will not upset international balances. All members have somewhat compartimentalized interests or not enough strenght to compete between each other for the same prize.
So, unlike OTL NATO and Warsaw Pact, with the first being a somewhat loose coalition of interest in Europe and everybody for himself in other theatres; and not like the second, were the USSR was the absolute tyrant of it's empire.
Yes, these crises will shape the Roman Alliances policies likely for decades to come. Italy cannot dominate its allies to the extent the Soviets do, but Brutus would establish there is a box of sorts in policy that you will be penalized for if you stray beyond it.
For example it would give Austria and Italy a right to object if Bulgaria down the line tries to overturn the demilitarization of its land border with the Soviets risking war. Or if say Portugal threaten to damage the Alliances relations with Britain by cozying up too much to the minority rule states officially.
In essence the the RA is becoming a quid pro quo, where in exchange for the security being on the team gets you, you have to effectively agree to certain rules regarding respecting the interests of the team as a whole in your policy and image.
Let's not forget Greece is also showing the Fascist states are coordinating effectively to preempt a repeat of Serbia.
These policies and successes could well attract other states to join.
What exactly happens to Pavleic will also be interesting. After the way he insulted Mussolini I doubt he'll just get life imprisonment. So either "killed resisting arrest" or captured to stand trial. And if trial will the RA handle him in house or turn him over to the UN as a gesture of goodwill?
I think Mussolini and co. handing Pavelić over to the United Nations would be the best route.
Dolan
Banned
No, it would create bad precedent for Roman alliances perspective. As then it would be interpreted that UN outrank them.
Better way is to hold the special tribunal within Croatia, or at Italy proper, and charge Palevic with "Unprovoked War" and "Needless Cruelty", make sure that the wordings is written carefully to not bite Italian ass in the future.
Regarding Greece, well with Serbia precedent and the situation in Croatia it's very probable that once the communist insurrection is dealt Mussolini and co. will decide to throw to the Greeks some bones so to increase his legitimancy and avoid for the time soon a new rebellion; minority rights in Crete and Bulgaria annexed territory and maybe some (very) minor territorial adjustment and a couple of (minor) island given back.
In any case the last update show how the RA works, Italy is just the first among peers and more or less the international frontman of the alliance; sure all this give influence but cannot dictate term to the other members. In general every member is basically left alone to pursue his goal but with coordination with other members...except when such goal risk the entire group they are dealt inside the 'family'; ironically the nations that most support autarchy are the one most forced to collaborate among themselfs due to the geopolitical situation
In any case the last update show how the RA works, Italy is just the first among peers and more or less the international frontman of the alliance; sure all this give influence but cannot dictate term to the other members. In general every member is basically left alone to pursue his goal but with coordination with other members...except when such goal risk the entire group they are dealt inside the 'family'; ironically the nations that most support autarchy are the one most forced to collaborate among themselfs due to the geopolitical situation