The Footprint of Mussolini - TL

[Gar48]

Not really.

Basically, ITTL, Mussolini invaded Yugoslavia on his own rather than with the help of Germany. Once the Italian military had a hard time beating Yugoslavia, Mussolini realized that he needed to improve the quality of the Italian military.

Yeah, except that IRL we already knew that the armed forces weren't ready more or less since the army very barely won in Ethiopia (a conflict that saw the fascists use chemical weapons out of desperation).

It still didn't change much because, well, Mussolini valued political affiliation more than actual competence and because he honestly believed you could beat a well armed enemy with the power of will.

Also our industry was seriously underdeveloped . From wikipedia:

"In the late 1930s, the economy was still too underdeveloped to sustain the demands of a modern militaristic regime. Production of raw materials too small, and finished military equipment was limited in quantity and too often in quality. Although at least 10% of GDP, almost a third of government expenditure, began to be directed towards the armed services in the 1930s, the country was "spectacularly weak". Notably, the investment in the early 1930s left the services, especially the army, obsolete by 1940. Expenditures on conflicts from 1935 (such as commitments to the Spanish Civil War in 1936 to 1939 as well as the Italy-Albania War in 1939) caused little stockpiling to occur for the much greater World War II in 1940–1945."

 

[naraht]

iTTL,

The Italians roll all Critical successes, the Soviets roll all Critical Failures, the Arabs roll all Critical insanities and the Israelis end up with land mostly to deny it to states run by "Arabs".

For all that the Israelis end up with land that (sort of) runs from the Nile to the Tigris/Euphrates, one of my problems with TTL is having Jews (like Shamir) express that Israel should stretch from the Nile to the Euphrates is a *not* something that I've seen any sign of in OTL Judaism and generally viewed as an anti-Jewish trope used by Hamas.

 

[CalBear]

iTTL,

The Italians roll all Critical successes, the Soviets roll all Critical Failures, the Arabs roll all Critical insanities and the Israelis end up with land mostly to deny it to states run by "Arabs".

For all that the Israelis end up with land that (sort of) runs from the Nile to the Tigris/Euphrates, one of my problems with TTL is having Jews (like Shamir) express that Israel should stretch from the Nile to the Euphrates is a *not* something that I've seen any sign of in OTL Judaism and generally viewed as an anti-Jewish trope used by Hamas.

This actually is very concerning, although it has not been reported, except in this comment.

Threads in post-1900 require a degree of plausibility.

 

[MusuMankata]

Yeah, except that IRL we already knew that the armed forces weren't ready more or less since the army very barely won in Ethiopia (a conflict that saw the fascists use chemical weapons out of desperation).

It still didn't change much because, well, Mussolini valued political affiliation more than actual competence and because he honestly believed you could beat a well armed enemy with the power of will.

Also our industry was seriously underdeveloped . From wikipedia:

"In the late 1930s, the economy was still too underdeveloped to sustain the demands of a modern militaristic regime. Production of raw materials too small, and finished military equipment was limited in quantity and too often in quality. Although at least 10% of GDP, almost a third of government expenditure, began to be directed towards the armed services in the 1930s, the country was "spectacularly weak". Notably, the investment in the early 1930s left the services, especially the army, obsolete by 1940. Expenditures on conflicts from 1935 (such as commitments to the Spanish Civil War in 1936 to 1939 as well as the Italy-Albania War in 1939) caused little stockpiling to occur for the much greater World War II in 1940–1945."

IIRC, Italy didn't try to intervene in the Spanish Civil War in this timeline. While logically sound, to intervene in favour of the Nationalists in hindsight was a bad idea compared to focusing on Ethiopia or build-up, exactly because of the weak industry.

With Jugoslavia having been conquered with most of the heavy lifting done by Bulgaria, and no embargo post-Ethiopia, the issues caused by the weak industry and unprepardness were likely alleviated, because less materiel and fuel was spent on something that ultimately proved moot.

 

[Lalli]

Threads in post-1900 require a degree of plausibility.

How many TLs in Before/After 1900 Forums are stricktly plausible? Surely most of them is some problems with plausibility. At least this not involve dragons and such magical things.

 

[CalBear]

How many TLs in Before/After 1900 Forums are stricktly plausible? Surely most of them is some problems with plausibility. At least this not involve dragons and such magical things.

The vast majority have at least a low degree of plausibility. Those that don't are an issue.

I haven't seen any reports on this thread's plausibility, so I can only assume that it was at least initially built off of a plausible POD. If one side has everything go its way and the other side spends all of its time eating lead paint chips with mercury laced beer as a chaser, that is a problem (unless, of course, they tended that was IOTL e.g. Nazi Germany 1945, where the leader had gone from sorta delusional to legit insane).

 

[naraht]

The vast majority have at least a low degree of plausibility. Those that don't are an issue.

I haven't seen any reports on this thread's plausibility, so I can only assume that it was at least initially built off of a plausible POD. If one side has everything go its way and the other side spends all of its time eating lead paint chips with mercury laced beer as a chaser, that is a problem (unless, of course, they tended that was IOTL e.g. Nazi Germany 1945, where the leader had gone from sorta delusional to legit insane).

My objections weren't to plausibility, frankly the Italy/Arab wank/screw isn't that much more bizarre than the OTL 19th century Britain/Spain wank/screw.

My objection are to the specific opinions held by Shamir and being ascribed to more Jews as being something that is shown as a general dream of Jews.

 

[GalileoFigaroMagnifico]

Eh. IMO, I'd argue that most of the TL's developments are either backed up/believable or core enough to the TL's narrative that they can be swallowed. For example, the Euphrates thing - while a huge shift and easily one of the TL's more 'out-there' moments, Sorairo didn't just conjure it out of thin air and ask it to be believed. The Soviet Holocaust, the First Arab War and the annexation of Jordan all build up to it, respectively blowing up the idea that the Holocaust was so terrible that no state was evil enough to repeat it, inflaming Israeli defensiveness and paranoia by having pretty much all of their new neighbourhood attack them while commanded by someone (in the latter stages of the war) who supported the Nazis and is explicitly calling on his followers to expunge them from their new country, and radicalising the Arabs by seeming to confirm their worst thoughts on Israel (i.e. "they aren't just content with the Holy Land, they destroyed/annexed an Arab country - what if we're next?") and sparking their own makeshift Dolschstoss.

After the second Holocaust that broke the belief that it could never happen again, the increasingly dark and strident tone of the Arab leadership in the first war, and the very explicit 'push them into the sea' rhetoric of Aflaq, the gassing of Tel Aviv was the straw that broke the camel's back. With the Holocaust taboo broken, explicitly genocidal rhetoric from Baghdad and every action Aflaq took seeming to confirm they were facing a second Nazi Germany... Well, look at Begin's calculation - "Better an Israel hated by all the world than an Auschwitz loved by one and all". After that, the Euphrates annexation wasn't so much a moment of triumph as a cap on the destruction of a potential Third Holocaust, a consolation prize taken to ensure Israel's security via strategic depth and lend weight to the promise of 'never again'. It isn't presented by the author as an unambiguously good event, but a mix of all-too-easily-averted tragedy and something of a philosophical question posed to the reader: in the face of such seemingly inevitable and overwhelming destruction, are all actions justifiable?

Also, there is historical precedent for this - look at what the Soviets pulled in Eastern Europe after the war. The situations of Germany and the Arabs aren't precisely analogous, but, y'know, isn't as if population transfers of this size haven't been pulled IOTL.

 

[Icedaemon]

I was going to weigh in on this discussion, but @GalileoFigaroMagnifico posted more or less what I was going to state in more detail and better than what I had typed out.

In short, this timeline is in a lot of places very much a tragedy. OTL was the same and in some respects one could argue that TTL was better in that in more cases the perpetrators of horrific acts realized what they had done and the lines they had crossed and tried to make some sort of restitution, while there are plenty of people who are still dead-set on denying the crimes of communism in the real world. It's a bizarre set of results, but the train of events which led to them is just about believable.

 

[Logothétes]

Mussolini seeing the light after being saved from an assassination attempt by a Jewish blackshirt, standing up to Hitler, fighting (and winning!) with the Allies against Nazism, single-handedly kickstarting a New Roman Empire in Eastern Med & Africa, helping bring down world communism and even dying peacfully from old age while thanking said Jewish blackshirt while pondering if he was worth the noble sacrifice is something you'd read on shitpost at A.H. Wiki back in the early 2000s.

I'm sorry but the whole concept is hilarious.

 

[DurableShift]

Mussolini seeing the light after being saved from an assassination attempt by a Jewish blackshirt, standing up to Hitler, fighting (and winning!) with the Allies against Nazism, single-handedly kickstarting a New Roman Empire in Eastern Med & Africa, helping bring down world communism and even dying peacfully from old age while thanking said Jewish blackshirt while pondering if he was worth the noble sacrifice is something you'd read on shitpost at A.H. Wiki back in the early 2000s.

I'm sorry but the whole concept is hilarious.

I think that's a little off the mark. I'd say it's less standing up to Hitler and more not finding him palatable after the changes, and then essentially stumbling into a war declaration from Germany late in the war. They fight and win because Germany opened up a third front against them even when already overstrained by the Allies and the Soviets. This isn't some master plan of Mussolini's to stand up and fight Hitler, it's a series of events that happened because Hitler and the Nazis were nuts.

Your description makes Mussolini in this timeline sound much more favorable than he was, like someone who saw the light and decided the Nazis must go. Sure, he leaned into it afterwards but that's just playing the hand he was dealt, it wasn't remotely his aim.

 

[Deleted member 169412]

To add to the conversation on Israel, what I do think is unrealistic is that:
1) Mussolini set up an explicitly Jewish state rather than a Kingdom of Jerusalem or an officially secular "State of Palestine". To be fair the Land of Palestine was a British mandate and Mussolini would have no say in what the Brits did there, but I don't see him supporting a Jewish state - I definitely don't see Franco supporting it given that he believed in the idea of a Judeo-Masonic conspiracy and sent Jewish refugees in Spain back to France and (by extension) to the death camps.
2) Israel remains a liberal democracy. Many Jews, ITTL, will end up having a very positive view of Fascist Italy; it saved about a million Jews from the camps and helped establish Israel. It's not ASB to say that Jewish fascists like Kahane would get a lot of support, especially from Jews whose lives were literally saved by a fascist government.

 

[Emperor of Pennsylvania]

1) Mussolini set up an explicitly Jewish state

Mussolini became a supporter of Zionism due to the events of the Second World War.

2) Israel remains a liberal democracy. Many Jews, ITTL, will end up having a very positive view of Fascist Italy; it saved about a million Jews from the camps and helped establish Israel. It's not ASB to say that Jewish fascists like Kahane would get a lot of support, especially from Jews whose lives were literally saved by a fascist government.

Well, Israel is a dominant party state for much of the Cold War.

 

[Lalli]

To add to the conversation on Israel, what I do think is unrealistic is that:
1) Mussolini set up an explicitly Jewish state rather than a Kingdom of Jerusalem or an officially secular "State of Palestine". To be fair the Land of Palestine was a British mandate and Mussolini would have no say in what the Brits did there, but I don't see him supporting a Jewish state - I definitely don't see Franco supporting it given that he believed in the idea of a Judeo-Masonic conspiracy and sent Jewish refugees in Spain back to France and (by extension) to the death camps.

Mussolini didn't establish Israel. He just supported zionism from end of WW2 and helped Israel to win Arabian Wars. Idea of Jewish state is at least as old as Mussoilini himself. He hardly could had change that and hardly was willingful, at least not willingful establish kingdom to Israel. And it would had been impossible anyway since zionist movement was mostly quiet left-leaned. And Franco hardly had much fo saying what Mussolini did in Middle Eat. Spain and Italy were already allies and Franco wouldn't had won anything with going against Mussolini. Him might had some antisemtic traits but not so much that he would had openly opposed big supporter of Spanish fascist regime. Franco was many things but he wasn't idiot when it came to international diblomacy.

2) Israel remains a liberal democracy. Many Jews, ITTL, will end up having a very positive view of Fascist Italy; it saved about a million Jews from the camps and helped establish Israel. It's not ASB to say that Jewish fascists like Kahane would get a lot of support, especially from Jews whose lives were literally saved by a fascist government.

Israel was already quiet democratic so it would had been really hard to change that as authotarian state. There is some factors which helped Israel become liberal democracy:

1. Israel became very homogenous and unified nations. It has not as much of Arab population than in OTL. Its enemies are too pretty much destroyed and made quiet less dangerous.
2. Biggest right-wing party Herut begun to be quiet disgusted with Lehi and probably moderated itself greatly altough still remained conservative.
3. There was really long lasted left-wing government in 1970's and 1980's which probably helped to cchange social things.
4. After fall of fascism at end of 1970's made far-right wing getting power really difficult. This helped Mapai and Herut dominate Israeli politics.

 

[Sorairo]

My objection are to the specific opinions held by Shamir and being ascribed to more Jews as being something that is shown as a general dream of Jews.

Israel gained its extra territory in two stages:

1) The annexation of the Trans-Jordan: this was the stated policy of Revisionist Zionists, who are much more favorable to aligning with Mussolini. Since the Arabs are routed due to an industrial European power joining the 1948 war, they have both the ability and the political strength to force it

2) The annexations following the 1956 war. The Sinai and Litani river make perfect sense from a defensive standpoint, and after a literally apocalyptic conflict with a totally disgraced enemy planning genocide, not to mention the terrible defensibility of the Jordan border and need for more space to defend the interior, the simultaneous sense of destiny and the desire to punish Arabs (unjustly in the case of innocent civilians) hit a historical coincidence where the old Biblical prophecy about Abraham's descendents owning up to the Euphrates could be fulfilled, and an exceptionally emboldened, Ultra-Nationalist Israeli-Right demanded it.

It's depressing to have to repeat this again, but ethnic hatred, ethnic expulsion, ethnic cleansing are all 100% immoral and inexcusable. Israel expelling Arabs from its territories ITTL was an example of TTL's Israel committing an immoral act; it is not to be celebrated or excused. When I went to Jordan and Israel, I was constantly helped by Arabs, both strangers and my tour guide - it depressed me when I wrote those events in the stories because I imagined those people among those being forced out. The friends I made, both Christian and Muslim, being forced out of their home - imagining it and wishing to the God I didn't believe in that in real life Israel and Palestine could come to a peace deal in my lifetime, like my home country.

I don't think I've ever been to a place that hurt my soul more than the Palestinian refugee camp I went to while I was writing this story. I had to write the Operation Samson section within a month or so of being there.

 

[Sorairo]

Mussolini seeing the light after being saved from an assassination attempt by a Jewish blackshirt, standing up to Hitler, fighting (and winning!) with the Allies against Nazism, single-handedly kickstarting a New Roman Empire in Eastern Med & Africa, helping bring down world communism and even dying peacfully from old age while thanking said Jewish blackshirt while pondering if he was worth the noble sacrifice is something you'd read on shitpost at A.H. Wiki back in the early 2000s.

I'm sorry but the whole concept is hilarious.

1) Mussolini moved in and out between Anti-Semitism and Philo-Semitism OTL - this simply freezes it one way. And he didn't become a good guy by any stretch of the imagination - he committed literal genocide in Slovenia, dropped more nukes than any one person in history and bankrolled Apartheid.

2) He cooperated with Hitler (in Spain and with the transfer of rich Jews to Libya) and fell ass-backwards into a war with him because he underestimated how crazy Hitler was. There was nothing moral about it - he wanted the Jews to work the Libyan colony and liked that the crowds were calling his name, which fed his megalomania. He didn't expect any sort of war and created the Roman Alliance specifically to not have a war.

3) Of course he "won" against Hitler (that is to say, contributed to VE Day), it was 1943/4, the Nazis were stretched on all sides and doomed.

4) He didn't 'single-handedly' kick start anything. He had OTL's colonial Empire and a bunch of ideologically alligned states who primarily didn't want to be dragged into the war (again, underestimating Hitler's crazy) - it was a mutual insurance policy, of which Turkey and Croatia had an equal say. The guff about a New Roman Empire was media bombast.

5) The failures of the Communist system doomed world Communism - Mussolini was not the deceisive cog that ended Communism because Communism ended OTL. Of course, having less Communist states in the Pact badly hurt the Soviet position and helped speed up their downfall - would have been exactly the same if Italy was democratic.

6) He died from old age like Franco died of old age. Furthermore, he died racked with doubts and guilt, desperately looking for a priest as his atheism failed to comfort him, not 'peacefully'. And yes, it made sense he would think of his life in terms of valour and sacrifice - these were key themes of Fascism, so it seemed appropriate that faced with oblivion he would question whether he lived up to those ideas. Not to forget that Balbo literally was killed in a suicide dive.

 

[Purrangzeb]

1) Mussolini moved in and out between Anti-Semitism and Philo-Semitism OTL - this simply freezes it one way. And he didn't become a good guy by any stretch of the imagination - he committed literal genocide in Slovenia, dropped more nukes than any one person in history and bankrolled Apartheid.

2) He cooperated with Hitler (in Spain and with the transfer of rich Jews to Libya) and fell ass-backwards into a war with him because he underestimated how crazy Hitler was. There was nothing moral about it - he wanted the Jews to work the Libyan colony and liked that the crowds were calling his name, which fed his megalomania. He didn't expect any sort of war and created the Roman Alliance specifically to not have a war.

3) Of course he "won" against Hitler (that is to say, contributed to VE Day), it was 1943/4, the Nazis were stretched on all sides and doomed.

4) He didn't 'single-handedly' kick start anything. He had OTL's colonial Empire and a bunch of ideologically alligned states who primarily didn't want to be dragged into the war (again, underestimating Hitler's crazy) - it was a mutual insurance policy, of which Turkey and Croatia had an equal say. The guff about a New Roman Empire was media bombast.

5) The failures of the Communist system doomed world Communism - Mussolini was not the deceisive cog that ended Communism because Communism ended OTL. Of course, having less Communist states in the Pact badly hurt the Soviet position and helped speed up their downfall - would have been exactly the same if Italy was democratic.

6) He died from old age like Franco died of old age. Furthermore, he died racked with doubts and guilt, desperately looking for a priest as his atheism failed to comfort him, not 'peacefully'. And yes, it made sense he would think of his life in terms of valour and sacrifice - these were key themes of Fascism, so it seemed appropriate that faced with oblivion he would question whether he lived up to those ideas. Not to forget that Balbo literally was killed in a suicide dive.

your timeline would benefit from jewish kenya
ניירובי היא האור של אפריקה

 

[cheemingwan1234]

In America, animation is even deeper in the doldrums than OTL due to the purge of leftists in the Patton era. With the end of the Hays Code delayed until the 1970s, and Disney strangling the life out of the Western animation industry, anime actually rises even earlier to about British levels of international attention by the 1970s. With the exception of Disney (in the animation game more for prestige than anything else at this point) America has absolutely fallen behind the Imperial Federation (inheriting talent vanquished by the Red Purges) and Japan.

Imagine the stereotypical 90s American/Michael Bay film - now imagine a Japanese version becoming normal. Godzilla goes from scientists opposing an 'Enemy of mankind' to a soldier going 'This stupid lizard tried to pick a fight with Japan!' and coming up with a gun big enough to blast through its armour.

In anime, casual references to Japaneseness as something to proud of are normal, the Rising Sun Flag is as much of a global fashion symbol (outside of Asia) as the Union Jack or Stars and Stripes. Boys und Panzer is considered anime of the season, made with the kind help of the 'Self-Defence forces', now consuming a noticeable portion of the GDP. The Russo-Japanese War and War of Re-Unification are relentlessly told and retold. Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori. Children in America and Europe are familiar with Nobunaga and Emperor Meiji because they saw them in their cartoons growing up just like they saw Washington and Lincoln.

China censored comic books a la South Korea and consequently ended up creating the Web Toon craze for much the same reason. Owing to diplomatic spats, its actually really hard to buy manga in China to (preserve the pitiful remains of the local manhua industry) so the Japanese aren't as depedent on China as they might otherwise be. Korea is a backwater still, but Vietnam has used the Francophonie to create V-Drama television shows that have penetrated through to the broader world along with Katanga.

So, there is a Japanese film franchise that is basically OTL's Die Hard?

 

[Antonella95]

@Sorairo could you give some more details about the Austro-Hungarian Twin-Crown? Did both countries merge and form a federation with both Vienna and Budapest as its capitals (i have to assume this arrangement in order not to anger either the Hungarian or the Austrians)? if yes did the new country remain in the CIS since Austria was a member or did it withdraw from the alliance? Or are Austria and Hungary still two independent countries that however have the same King?

 

[Sorairo]

So, there is a Japanese film franchise that is basically OTL's Die Hard?

If there is, the villains will likely be the Yakuza, only for it to turn out they are ethnically Korean Yakuza members and consequently not the 'true' and 'honorable' Yakuza, who were the upstanding gentlemen who helped free Hokaidou, whereas it is assumed Korean members were at best indifferent to the struggle or outright hostile to Japanese interests. The 'real' (100% ethnically Japanese) Yakuza may even help them out - the reputation of Korea is about what OTL's Russia is ITTL so would meet little international anger.

Japan's relationship to the Yakuza ITTL is much closer to Indonesia's attitude to the Pro-West militias shown in the documentary The Act of Killing (2012). There are TV shows like the A-Team showing a Yakuza group doing the down and dirty stuff the police have to do but are too afraid to do, all while the police pursue the heroes.

The main effect has, of course, been more suffering for sex workers, businessmen and anyone who accidentally pissed off the wrong guy in downtown Tokyo.

Similarly, the Mob films of America often displayed the Mafia as valiant resistors of Italian Fascism, which led to them getting much more praise than they deserved.