My predictions would be thus:
Duarte Nuno holds onto the throne until his death despite a gradual drawdown of Italian troops, but there's new mass protests on Duarte Pio's ascension to the throne. There will be much less willingness to massacre crowds of one's own people and he will give in to the popular demand. If he has to vacate the throne he would only do so to only become king of Angola and Mozambique, where the regime is more popular - he is an ardent monarchist OTL who would not be willing to abdicate totally. Possibly the younger brother who is more of a patron of the arts than anything else might become the constitutional monarch of Portugal, if they decide to retain a monarchy to better fit in with Spain and the UK.
King Juan Carlos follows a path similar to OTL, but with even more success due to gradually bringing democracy not to a relatively poor former pariah state, but a regional power with nuclear weapons. If there's a more violent collapse in Italy, Spain might even surpass them for a short while. He might give some of the colonial lands back, but I think that due to the relatively small numbers and close proximity of the Spanish possessions, they are unlikely to return much to Morocco.
Bulgaria will probably continue much as they had been - the tsardom did not change that much when it joined the RA, Boris III was initially one of the more popular leaders thereof and Bulgaria probably changed the least in terms of it's internal policies. It will probably remain closer to an absolutist monarchy than most states, but with a relatively free press and good relations with most neighbours absent Turkey deciding that they are the leader of the RA now and trying to bully it's peers around.
Turkey and Iran will remain fascist dictatorships, the current systems are working too well for them to change much. They will probably cooperate a lot in the future, as the world as a whole becomes less friendly to their system.
China will become slightly less fascist, but as with the CCP of OTL, they will probably never really allow democracy or free speech. They will however economically be playing catchup for longer - albeit catchup with India, whose economy was rising earlier while China was still a mess.
Italy is trapped in a guagmire. Even if they vacate Ethiopia, there will be afrofascist attacks on their other possessions until that movement tires itself out. Ciano has to walk a tightrope between needed social programs for veterans & democratic reforms and maintaining the pride and image Mussolini built up. He will likely die soon as well - Italy has turned into a gerontocracy.
India will be the rising power challenging the USA for the top spot in this timeline.
Similarly to Bulgaria, Thailand will continue with a centralized monarchical system but otherwise relatively liberal society. I'd expect them to be one of Israel's main rivals in the Global Fighting Championship though.
Rhodesia will manage to kill Mugabe eventually and will in time try to clean up their act and give more rights to the indigenous population, at least enough to begin to mend their relationship with the British Commonwealth, although the state will not be truly internally stable for a long time yet.
South Africa is due to go up in flames in a brutal racist civil war.
As the Roman Alliance dies a slow death, the ITO will be abolished or fade away into irrelevance, replaced with a complicated web of trading unions and bilateral agreements based more on historical partnerships, cultural similarities and simple pragmatic proximity.
The crowds, though still huge, were noticeably smaller than at the death of Mussolini, and the stature of the international guests were likewise nowhere near as immense as those at Mussolini’s departure. Balbo has nowhere near the levels of support Mussolini enjoys in modern Italy, being a much more decisive figure. While he is still adored by (or at least having apologetics from) the Italian Right, the Italian Left consider him the worst of Italy’s three dictators. He has also become something of a modern meme among young Italians for his joie de vivre persona that many associate with the 1960s. By contrast, among many indigenous Africans, he is considered one of the most evil men of the 20th century. Whatever Balbo’s legacy, one thing was for sure - he had a better stack of cards given to him in 1963 than Ciano did at the close of 1975.
It's this joje the virve combined with the nuking of Addis Ababa which still does not sit well with me, it looks like an idiot ball moment. Balbo was always fond of being seen in a positive light, aware of the western Anglo-American mindsets and the sort of a macho man who would not mind getting stuck in himself to battles he could send subordinates to fight. He absolutely would not have been willing to pull out from Ethiopia obviously, but given the rest of his actions in this timeline and OTL, I have a hard time he was fully compos mentis when he ordered the H-bomb to be dropped. Perhaps in the future, an aide will let slip that he had been experimenting with a brand new drug when that decision was made, it's just too shortsighted and cartoonish otherwise.
