The Footprint of Mussolini - TL

[MusuMankata]

I think that Somalia will get indipendence shortly after Italian withdrawal from Ethiopia, since there's no indication that Somali opposition has been crushed. And it will fare better off than OTL in all metrics, since there isn't any reason to do the spiteful looting the Italian Fiduciary Administration did post-WW2 in the area. Perhaps Italian will hold on there this time around.

Eritrea is trickier, it could go either way, but if it breaks away it'll probably do the reverse course of OTL and try to get some Ethiopian border lands to exploit the Chaos, before being pushed out come the New Millennium.

 

[Whiteshore]

Were any prominent generals or politicians with Balbo on that fateful flight?

 

[LordMartinax]

So, first off I must say that this is one of the best TLs that I have read. My thanks to the author for such a good story.

As for this last chapter.

I am quite happy to see the afghan monarchy survive and hope that unlike OTL the country might continue to prosper in peace.

As for Iberian peninsula. I think that Spain will come out of this in many ways the same state as OTL with some main differences. One, they will keep most of their colonies ( the moroccan coast might be an expection). Two, Franco will most likely be much more popular here then OTL. He he did bring Spain into nuclear power club and regained some of its old colonial glory.

Portugal... well I can see it going few ways.
One, a successfull revolution, be it by army or the people. This will either lead to a new republic or a ceremonial monarchy. This will probably lead to the severing of ties with the colonies. If a republic I could see the king continue to rule in the former colonies.
Two, the king reforms the country into an actual democracy and either abandons or finds solution to the problem of colonies (some kind of portuguese Commonwealth?) Considering that Duarte will soon die, his son might be able to do this. In real life he did support the full independece of East Timor and spent several years in Africa.
Or option three. Belarus of this timeline. The last dictatorship of Europe.
Very unlikely as the Italians seem to be the main reason the regime is still standing.

It is good to see the improvements in relations between Israel and Arabs. Maybe there is hope of major improvement for the devastated arab nations.

South Africa is going to only get worse

And Balbo is death. And he left Ciano a complete mess. Now what will happen to fascism and Roman alliance?
I think that something big will happen that will shatter the alliance with many states ( like Spain) leaving and the Italian government being made to look competely incompetent. Maybe the reunification of Germany?
Which combined with Ethiopia, the drug crisis and other problems might topple the regime in Italy.
We shall see.

 

[Sorairo]

Were any prominent generals or politicians with Balbo on that fateful flight?

No one of note - the generals were too busy looking over the map of Ethiopia while swigging black market whisky, the politicians are already overwhelmed with their own concerns. To say the least Balbo's death did not come at a good time.

 

[Whiteshore]

White sympathy to the indigenous population plummeted to non-existent among the South African public, with most simply emigrating to ITO nations to escape the dire forecasts that many were making for what was quickly becoming the world’s ultimate pariah state without Communism or the ISA.

I guess things in South Africa are going to be very bad and that it will go out with a civil war involving nuclear weapons.

 

[Whiteshore]

Considering Gromyko was prominent IOTL as the long-time Foreign Minister of the USSR, what did he do ITTL to become a member of the Politburo and get tried at Trier, owing to Molotov being Foreign Minister until the February Coup? Heading the Stalingrad Pact? Being Molotov's deputy?

 

[Adrien_skywalker]

What about India, Burma, Malaysia, Indonesia and Australia? Any updates on these regions?

 

[Alpha-King98760]

Maybe Ciano would’ve been a better pick for Mussolini’s successor than Balbo.

 

[Lalli]

I guess things in South Africa are going to be very bad and that it will go out with a civil war involving nuclear weapons.

Possible altough it would make SA total pariah. It is already facing international blockade.

Maybe Ciano would’ve been a better pick for Mussolini’s successor than Balbo.

Probably. He might had understand that nuking of Addis Abeba wouldn't be very good idea. He might had treat Ethiopian War much better.

 

[Hagre]

I think that Somalia will get independence shortly after Italian withdrawal from Ethiopia, since there's no indication that Somali opposition has been crushed. And it will fare better off than OTL in all metrics, since there isn't any reason to do the spiteful looting the Italian Fiduciary Administration did post-WW2 in the area. Perhaps Italian will hold on there this time around.

Eritrea is trickier, it could go either way, but if it breaks away it'll probably do the reverse course of OTL and try to get some Ethiopian border lands to exploit the Chaos, before being pushed out come the New Millennium.

I can see Somalia ending up in some sort of Italian Commonwealth and maintaining its ties to Rome, though that could definitely change.

Considering the seemingly successful integration of Eritrea and the lenient treatment that they get from Italy, I can see them opting to remain with Italy, as opposed to an ostensibly pissed off Ethiopia destroyed by incessant guerrilla warfare. On Eritrean expansion, I don't see it happening - they've already got Tigray, so what part of Ethiopia would they want?

 

[Drizzt]

Possible altough it would make SA total pariah. It is already facing international blockade.

It's not just an alternate SA we have here, we also got an alternate ANC. If the Boers have to choose between nuclear civil war and surrender, then "Becoming a total pariah" trumps "let yourself be holocausted" every time, no matter just justified the other sides anger at them is.

 

[Kotka]

It's not just an alternate SA we have here, we also got an alternate ANC. If the Boers have to choose between nuclear civil war and surrender, then "Becoming a total pariah" trumps "let yourself be holocausted" every time, no matter just justified the other sides anger at them is.

I have yet to find an alternate history where without Mandela South Africa doesn’t end up in a catastrophe.

 

[AK47Productions]

Surely gives coastal line to Morocco. It was already originally stupid take such thing when it would be very hard to maintain. But not sure about apology. Did he or any Spanish governmet give official apology over Franco's crimes in OTL?

Not sure but I figured an apology would make a good consolation prize in the absence of independence for the Western Sahara and Guinea.

 

[GalileoFigaroMagnifico]

I can practically hear @Bookmark1995's joy at the steady erosion of fascism from here. So, few things to note:

• North Africa is practically an extension of Europe, what with white-majority states in French Algeria, Spanish Morroco and Italian Libya, and the rest influenced by one nation or another (Algeria proper and Tunisia being puppet states, North and South Egypt being heavily influenced by Britain/Italy respectively, Sudan being a Commonwealth state). Almost reminds me of the Roman days - the North African coast being an extension of Europe, I mean.
• A failed Carnation Revolution, and a good chance that if/when the revolution comes, the conservative-nationalist Portuguese populations of Angola/Mozambique will end up hosting the royal family.
• The Rhodies and South Africans are cracking down hard in the face of a native resistance slowly warping into a demented mirror of them.
• Anne Frank has turned on Italy, and Israel has joined the effort to get it to stop being so damned fascist - I can see the really crazy Italian wingnuts calling Israel 'traitors' for this forty or so years down the line.
• Count Ciano is this timeline's reincarnation of Gorby, by the looks of it.
• Ethiopia is pretty much fucked. I think this cements Somaliland's British protectorate status and Djibouti's French one for the future - frankly, whatever comes out of East Africa's twisted, weeping wreckage, I don't think either Djibouti or Somaliland is going to want to face it alone. God knows I wouldn't.
• Chiang gave me the warm and fuzzies, and I don't even like China that much.
• A lack of grandstanding theatrics gets a dictator killed, and an embittered pilot pulls a Taking You With Me maneouvre. I can see epic films being made about this guy as an anti-hero/anti-villain - reminds me of a more personally involved Stauffenburg..

 

[TunguskaStorm]

I have yet to find an alternate history where without Mandela South Africa doesn’t end up in a catastrophe.

Exactly. Without Mandela, indigenous South Africans are truly and totally screwed. Mandela was certainly an exception, promoting cooperation between races in South Africa. At best for the indigenous, South Africa gets split into a state for whites and Cape Coloureds and one/multiple states for indigenous populations. At worst, the current situation is continued with both sides escalating until one is forced to stand down to bend to the whims of the other.

 

[Bookmark1995]

I can practically hear @Bookmark1995's joy at the steady erosion of fascism from here. So, few things to note:

• North Africa is practically an extension of Europe, what with white-majority states in French Algeria, Spanish Morroco and Italian Libya, and the rest influenced by one nation or another (Algeria proper and Tunisia being puppet states, North and South Egypt being heavily influenced by Britain/Italy respectively, Sudan being a Commonwealth state). Almost reminds me of the Roman days - the North African coast being an extension of Europe, I mean.
• A failed Carnation Revolution, and a good chance that if/when the revolution comes, the conservative-nationalist Portuguese populations of Angola/Mozambique will end up hosting the royal family.
• The Rhodies and South Africans are cracking down hard in the face of a native resistance slowly warping into a demented mirror of them.
• Anne Frank has turned on Italy, and Israel has joined the effort to get it to stop being so damned fascist - I can see the really crazy Italian wingnuts calling Israel 'traitors' for this forty or so years down the line.
• Count Ciano is this timeline's reincarnation of Gorby, by the looks of it.
• Ethiopia is pretty much fucked. I think this cements Somaliland's British protectorate status and Djibouti's French one for the future - frankly, whatever comes out of East Africa's twisted, weeping wreckage, I don't think either Djibouti or Somaliland is going to want to face it alone. God knows I wouldn't.
• Chiang gave me the warm and fuzzies, and I don't even like China that much.
• A lack of grandstanding theatrics gets a dictator killed, and an embittered pilot pulls a Taking You With Me maneouvre. I can see epic films being made about this guy as an anti-hero/anti-villain - reminds me of a more personally involved Stauffenburg..

The day more human beings can live under a reasonable government is a day anyone can happily celebrate.

My dislike of authoritarianism is born from both sympathy for the human race and an understanding that hardline rule isn't very efficient.

 

[Herr Frage]

My predictions:

- Lehi tries coup d'etat in Israel which is butchered and finally Lehi is banned.
- Ciano commits some minor reforms. He too pulls out from Ethiopia which descends to civil war between Afro-fascists and pro-democracy forces.
- Italy has its own version of Carnatic Revolution.
- Juan Carlos succesfully transfer Spain to democracy.
- Duarte II probably will dies soon (in OTL Duarte Nuno died in 1976). His successor probably will reform Portugal.
- Greece sees massive protests and puppet regime is overthrown.
- Mediterranean Spring spreads to Bulgaria, Croatia and Austria. Results might be pretty different.
- Rhodesia sees much of violence and probably Mugabe will be killed. Somehow possible that Rhodesia will transfer to multi-racial regime pretty peacefully.
- Unfortunately it seems that South Africa is not so lucky.

I actually don't see a Lehi coup coming. With the Herut's general disgust at the attacks on Frank and years for the moderates to gain more traction in the military seems like they have receded in government influence. I see them more organizing in Eastern Israel with militias against any 'conspiracy' to return the land to the Arabs and such.

I think the Somali resistance will also be boosted by the pullout.

I am a bit skeptical about that. I see the One party state falling but the 80s seeing a 'Fascism in Democratic clothes' with the regime keeping a finger on the transference process. Which might explain why its not until the 90s the conspiracy to aid Mosley becomes public.

For Croatia and Austria i see the Fascist regimes there falling as soon as Italy's one party state ends. We know the Fascist regime has never been popular with the people in Austria and the Croatian state was born from an alliance beteen Pvelic's extremists and Italy. So with italy no longer threatening I could see uprsisings against Ustache and the Savoy king pretty quick. Bulgaria is an odd one though. The regime last we saw was faorly popular and they don't have major quagmire going on.

 

[Kotka]

ITTL
•Mussolini and Franco will be seen as “benevolent dictators” whom committed some “mistakes” but their reputation will generally be seen as not too bad.
•Balbo will be seen as OTL Stalin, a man who corrupted the system and the responsible for many atrocities (Addis Ababa) also probably most of what happened in Slovenia will be blamed on Graziani and maybe on him.
•Stalin, Mao and Aflaq will be on the same circle of hell and reputation as Hitler.


Well, looks like Italy saved the Jews and now Israel must save Italy from herself.

 

[Herr Frage]

Well, looks like Italy saved the Jews and now Israel must save Italy from herself.

I can see Anne Frank saying something to that effect.

I think Turkey and Iran will survive as Fascist regimes into the 90s having stronger support at home. But ongoing pressure and the downfall of more Ra members will erode their support escpailly over their puppet states. The Syrian occupation in particular I see as draining as it doesn't even have oil to trade for blood. But even with the advent of democracy I could see strong nationalist populism making a comeback via the ballot box in the 21st century.

Also unlike OTL I think Turkey will not be as interested in 'joining Europe' with more attention on a role in the Middle East and Central Asia.

It looks like China will democratize, but depending on how well it goes in Italy may effect the pace Chiang Ching-kuo goes at it.

 

[Sorairo]

What about India, Burma, Malaysia, Indonesia and Australia? Any updates on these regions?

India is back under the control of more liberal politicians who are dialing back the Hindutva - still deathly despise European Fascism, of course and are funding the Ethiopian resistance.

Burma remained a democracy ITTL and is doing a good bit better than OTL.

Malaysia is a close British ally in the region, while Australia is basically OTL (though a little bit smaller in population as a few immigrants went to Rhodesia instead, and less East Asian migrants because IndoChina is economically soaring).

Indonesia is a hardline military dictatorship as OTL but with more American oversight, the mass killings of OTL didn't happen.