The Footprint of Mussolini - TL

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Sorairo, Feb 20, 2019.

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  1. Lalli Well-Known Member

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    I don't see any reason why they would create independent Tripoli. And considering which way UAR annexed Lebanon and how much resistanse there is Lebanon hardly lost anything else as its Muslim population which is expelled.
     
  2. Herr Frage Jesus Christ Is In Heaven

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    It may not be a question of wanting too give it up, so much as they can't hold everything. Britain gave a big contribution to the Chinese War and now this war rears its head. With Britain probably having to invest itself in the Gulf and Iraq in addition to other colonial project, Aden may just not be something they can return to the status quo on. And they may be able to quid pro quo with Italy on this for something elsewhere.

    I do like your idea of retaining control of the port even in the event of cession. Though also recall a Western Dominated Suze will be a counterweight to the Ra on the other end of the Red Sea.

    Another thing Yemen might get is its border disputes with Sauidi Arabia settled in favor of North Yemen. If Britain retains Aden, expansion at the Saudi's expense may be used to legitimize Hussein's regime.

    Probably but what kind of government is a question.
     
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  3. Icedaemon Well-Known Member

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    Critically, I think, there will be a rather serious democratc vs fascist split after the soviet union collapses. They are insofar primarily getting along due to worrying about powerful mutual enemies. Since in this timeline, the Russian economy is likely to be in an even worse state after the fall of the soviet union, it rising into a major potential enemy of all European states is unlikely to come any sooner than OTL.
     
  4. Ariosto Populist Republican

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    It is more likely that France ultimately creates a "Triumvirate" of governance, between the French, the Italians, and the Tunisians. The French are loathe to leave Tunisia given its strategic position and their own settlers (though less present then in Algeria), but in time will know they'll need help keeping order in the protectorate if they've already committed large forces to Algeria and Indochina. The Italians as most have guessed have always had a vested interest in Tunisia, but would prefer not to drive a large wedge into the relationship with their French allies. An independent Tunisian State however, given the views of its likely leadership, would also be committed to the decolonization of Algeria and Libya and serve as a camp for partisans, an unacceptable result to both Rome and Paris.

    Annexation is off the table, but so is effective Independence.

    I seem to have always forgotten to mention that the Israeli border with Saudi Arabia would have been inherently different then the one between Jordan and Saudi-Arabia, given the border we recognize was established by strategic goals that won't necessarily exist. It is highly likely that the border would have been pushed significantly North-West, with more than half of what we recognize as Jordanian today being part of the Saudi Arabian hegemony.
     
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  5. Ariosto Populist Republican

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    Like I've mentioned with Tunisia, the British would probably make Southern Arabia a Protectorate in an attempt to maintain some semblence of control whilst also pursuing their policy of decolonization. The difference of course is that they could listen to those voice in the Aden Crown Colony where they didn't want to be federated with the remainder of British Arabia, resulting in it being a separate Protectorate in its own right. This does, however, run counter to the assumption by the British government that Aden's participation in the South Arabian Federation would economically benefit it (it failed to do so, visibly anyway).

    The problem of course is that Aden is in a position where it can be regularly harassed by Arab Nationalists, regardless of the wishes of Aden's inhabitants (think a violent version of Gibraltar, or more likely Cueta/Melilla), and economically it in part depended upon Arab migrant workers.
     
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  6. FickleCrossroad Wrong on so Many Levels

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    If this leads to Monza keeping its old layout for even longer than OTL, I am so down for this.
     
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  7. LordandsaviorKloka Son of Gondor

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    Something else interesting would be the beginning of space exploration.
     
  8. Herr Frage Jesus Christ Is In Heaven

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    I agree. The 70s will likely see jubilation of the fall of the Stalingrad Pact give way to renewed criticism too the RA's members. Which won't be limited to foreign pressure. With the end of the 'Red Menace' more peopel in the RA nations will question the need for the excesses and abuses of the regimes.

    My guess is the 80s see the end of the One Party State in Italy. Hard to say abut the rest; and we may see some holdouts into the 21st century.
     
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  9. Lalli Well-Known Member

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    There will be inevitably division between democracies and fascist states when Communists are gone. Democracies can't just ignore such powerful atrocitious block who actualy hates capitalism and democracy. They were allies during Cold War only because on practical reasons and both hated Communists more than each others. And in democratic countries all people outside of fascists and fascist sympathisers will ask why them should continue warm relationships with these dictatorships.

    Altough it seems that Fascist Block doensn't outlive Communist Block with many year, perhaps not even one decade. In Argentina, Portugal and Spain Perón, Salazar and Franco will die in 1970's so things are going intrestingly. In Italy people will be tired on decades lasted suppression of liberty and economic mismanagement. And when Communists are gone Fascists have not much of excuses keep their system around. And if Ethiopia manage gain independence this might be last straw to people like losing of colonies was death strike for Estado Novo in OTL. And Greeks might be tired to be puppet of Italy.
     
  10. Drizzt Well-Known Member

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    What excuse does the present day OTL PRC have to "keep their system around"? Why hasn't the end of their Common Enemy the New Russian Empire aka Warsaw Pact lead a massive split between the West and the PRC?
    The answer: It's a ginormous market. Now Italy alone wont be as big a market as the present day PRC, but the entire RA is another kettle of fish.

    IMHO if the Fascist regimes fall, it'll be to economic mismanagement resulting in ever greater living standard disparities between themselves and the Democracies, that the increased interconnectedness of the world will make impossibly to hide. Which means they'll fall sooner or later regardless of how strong or not the Democracies oppose them. However if they are doing more or less ok economically, then the Democracies wont turn against them to begin with. If OTL events of the last few weeks are any indication, then even the wokiest of organisations wont take a stand against the RA as long as lots of money is involved.
     
  11. Seandineen Member

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    Could there be a italian version of strength throughly involving travel to the new Roman Empire?
     
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  12. Sigfried Banned

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    And all this presumes that RA wont try to reform to resemble states like todays russia or turkey.
     
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  13. novussa Well-Known Member

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    Yeah RA might stay around for a while as along as the they and the democracies keep good trade relations they can stay a while ra want good relations with the west so.
     
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  14. wabbitking Member

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    does anyone ever think what OTL tv shows and movies would be like ITTL

    I really want to see the Hogan's Heroes episode where Klink and Schultz defect to the allies.
     
  15. Sorairo Well-Known Member

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    Hey all.

    Just about to come back home from Israel (which I recommend exceedingly).

    There should be an update in a few days assuming my house hasn’t burned down when I get back.

    It will focus primarily on the international reaction to the war and North Africa.
     
  16. AnonymousSauce Raisin Canesian

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    I'm flying there tomorrow
     
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  17. PatrickMtz Well-Known Member

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    Ah, always a pleasure to visit the place. Can't wait for the next update.
     
  18. generalurist Map Staring Expert

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    Ob boy, hype train time!

    I wonder, after this war when the true realization of Aflac's intentions for the Jews comes out, what will people think about the nations that sat out the war due to 'anti-colonialism'?
     
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  19. Herr Frage Jesus Christ Is In Heaven

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    I am not sure if Mussolini will be furious the Arab Alliance dared to attack him and Israel; or pleased that he has a war on his hands where he can ally with he other power players to carve up a region again.

    But of course many people high and low will think this is World War III unfolding.
     
  20. Kaiser Kolovos Well-Known Member

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    At this point the USSR is in the midst of an internal crisis, having to de-Stalinize the place, reorganize the Gulag system, and deal with starvation so they might not get involved besides war-profiteering.
    Europe and the US wouldn't want a war so close after the Chinese Civil War but the Arabians are in the Communist camp so they won't protest too much / at all.

    If it's only Italy and Israel against the Arabs, then this might only be a regional conflict, dragging Roman Alliance or ITO troops would escalate things immensely though.
     
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