Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Sorairo, Feb 20, 2019.
I think you had a typo here
Also in curious about Leon Degrelle. As well I'm interested in learning about the status of Fascist Movements outside of Italy. I mean we all know about the British Union of Fascists under Mosley, although I'm curious about the status of Fascist Movements in France, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany (Excluding the Nazis), the United States (Excluding Black Fascists) and etc.
True but we haven't seen desegration expand to the North or the Black Fascists go overboard and commit a big war crime yet...then we could start getting some serious push back from and maybe see the alliance break down. Also if Mcarthy gets the Presidency he could absolutely go even more overboard in his witch hunting and give the Freedomites to play "We are only defending the constitution from this out of control federal machine", add in Conservatives in the Republican party getting pissed at continued Liberal domination of the party, I could see them managing to stay the course and become a viable opposition.
Addendum: Although Sam Fullers philosophy on Black Rights which seems to be taking over mainstream circles does kinda look conservative, so I may be really off about the particular pole which the freedomites tries to get here.
Certainly interesting, I think this might lead to a second civil war in the United States.
This version is facing some serious issues either way.
While I imagine there is going to be quite a bit of strife in the next few years, I picture it as more off a...Years of Lead situation, combined with the political situation of France in 1958.
Not a collapse of civil order, but a bit of disorder.
I doubt that strongly. There is not any hints about second ACW. And you would need involvment of army. Situation will be bad but not so bad.
For the Arab states I have some theories on how they might come out of the 2nd Arab War.
1. UAR: Destroyed. The polity will be dissolved into both new states while losing territory outright to victors. Territory may be lost to Turkey, South Iran, Lebanon, and Israel.
Kurdistan will be created from the Northern part of the Former Iraqi kingdom, a project of the West over the objections of Turkey with the goal of creating a new democracy in the region. Also sponsored by Israel if the Kurds face strong persecution seeing a kindred spirit and natural ally in the Kurds. Italy gets Turkey to reluctantly accept claiming it will serve as a dumping ground for Kurdish extremists that refuse assimilation, and enduring fear of an Arab revival will keep Kurdistan from getting hostile with Turkey.
A Shia majority Iraqi Republic is established with its capital in Baghdad.
2. Oman: Separated from UAR and subject to British occupation before being deemed for for self governance(ProWest).
3. Yemen: 'Liberated' but Italian forces from the AOI who install the exiled Crown Prince as Sultan. The state gets brought into the RA and while subject to strong Italian presence actually gain territory at the expense of Saudi Arabia and investment from being in the Roman sphere.
4. Lebanon: Conquered with aid from the Maronite resistance, it is decided to treat it as liberated nation rather than a UAR member state. The Italians and Turk Cooperate with support from the Israelii Right to set it up as a near Fascist State controlled by the RA's allies. May gain border adjustments in is favor.
5. Saudi Arabia: After its first great losses an facing invasion the King is overthrown by his brothers. A brief Civil war ensues with the new Sultan asking the West for aid against UAR loyalists. The Sultan wins but Saudi Arabia's new regime is still seen as collaborators, just opportunistic ones. Yet occupying the country or meddling too much with it is seen as more trouble than its worth with Mecca and Medina in the equation.
So while the new King remains in power he has to concede border disputes in favor of the local allies of the victors, concede certain control over oil, and commit to some minor democratic reforms. Saudi Arabia survives but faces a troubled future, not truly trusted by the West and regarded as traitors by Arab Nationalists; and hobbled in exploiting its oil wealth.
6. Morocoo: This theater turns mostly into a sideshow, with it mostly being Spain vs. Morocco; with support from French Colonial forces assisting Spain. Spain wins but not a crushing victory. And with the West not wanting Franco to run wild he only get minor border adjustments, money, and Morocco's recognition of his colonial holdings. While the Sultan survives in power his regime comes under increasing pressure after this failure.
I have some social theories regarding the aftermath of this conflict:
1. With the Arabs defeated, Baathism becomes another discredited ideology alongside Nazism and Communism. With Pan-Arabism seen as a failure too, the Arabs might turn towards radical Islam as an alternative for revenge against the west and Israel.
2. Lebanon might start considering itself as Phoenician rather than Arab. The Maronites would hold the dominant position within the country as they sided with the victors.
3. Syria and Iraq are reconstituted again as seperate states. They get put under a german style occupation in which they must undergo democratic reforms as a prerequisite for occupation forces leaving.
4. The Egyptian monarchy is brought back but with a british style constitutional monarch being a figurehead with a Prime minister having real power.
5. The Palestinians would've been demoralized and might give up on the whole struggle.
Aren't we neglecting what the UAR can pull off early on? The foreshadowing is ominous.
This is Sicilian message. They are silent like fishes now.
Any UAR war on Israel will almost certainly trigger intervention from Italy and Turkey. IOTL the Israelis managed ok in '56 and '67 with Great power support (overt and indirect)
Egypt is exposed to Italian Libya. Syria is wide open to Turkey.
UAR may get cheap gains in Kuwait and the Emirates but all that will do is add UK into the mix. Oil prices will skyrocket but oil is not in short supply yet.
US will probably stay out but on the other side USSR is a basket case so UAR logistical support is going to be minimal. Hollow shell in other words - will make a loud noise but will crumble when challenged. Bit like 1st Gulf War Iraq.
Well sure, but what about WMDs?
WMDs oh shit
they are going use nukes arent they
Are we thinking UAR has effective nerve agent deployment capabilities - because I think that is highly unlikely. Only id the USSR had gone completely off the deep end in terms of realpolitk and I think there were too busy in China to care much about the UAR.
Mustard gas, phosgene, chlorine I can forsee but given the extremely poor training of the arab armies not in the main battlezone. So attacks on cities - maybe.
And the response from Italy would be immediate and brutal.
Unsure. I just caught up a few days ago, and the foreshadowing has me thinking the UAR is going to do something surprisingly nasty.
How many Israeli civilians have gas masks?
In 1991 4 million. Useless vs contact agents but WW2 surplus should be available in some quantities.
As the great political philisopher Sir Humprey Appleby said: "Politicians - the get taken in by their own speeches".
Applied to TTL, that means that however opportunistic and accidental it's origins, anti-anti-semitism has become Fascist Italys Morality Pet. Protecting the People of Israel is what Fascists and their sympathizers will be bringing up every time that can somehow shoehorn that into a debate about anything. Eventually that's something that takes on a life of it's own. So Italy will almost certainly not just offer material support, but go to war when the UAR attacks. It'll be part of their ideological DNA by now.
A more interesting question is: Will nations outside the RA get dragged in? For example the Algerians might decide the time is right for their own uprising, turning Frace into a de-facto co-belligerent. Creating a problem for TTLs NATO about whether to outright support French imperialism or face the prospect of France aligning themselves closer with the RA after the war.
I don't think that we are going to see WMDs during SAW at least not much. UAR has not much better than mustard gas and anthrax if then Soviets have not been hellish moronic and gave nerve agents, small pox virus and nukes. WW1 era WMDs are extremely ineffective speciality on hands of UAR army even if it is not as incompetent as Arab army was during FAW.
And chemical and biological weapons are greatly among Europeans thanks of usage of them during WW2. And it would be ineffective anyway. Italians wouldn't suspect to use nukes but there is not m8uch of good places. Targets in UAR is too close of Turkey and Israel and it is needless bomb Oman and Yemen which would be too close of Brits. Saudi Arabia might be possible. Could Riyadh be nuked? It is quiet center of the country.
Well by the end of this i think arabs Will be one the mist hated groups in the world.
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